Arrow Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[rockyride] 28/5/2024 21:53

After all the bluster, Im hoping for minimum of 700boepd net to Arrow. However, I would not be surprised to see 500boepd net to us with MA saying we are responsible stewards of the environment and reservoir management etc etc etc .blah blah blah. Anyway, if we do get a strong result I think we should set a new 52 week high - fully locked and loaded myself but wont be getting anymore before the results of HZ1 - a hell of a lot depends on this now. We are certainly not a one trick pony company, but this is the biggest and most important step in Arrows conquest to get to 10,000boepd.

[upwego] 28/5/2024 21:40

Topped up today and hoping for some good flow rates on the first of the HZ wells.

[beaks44] 28/5/2024 07:20

Nothing of significance, simply more underwhelming production numbers which i guess will lead to a dip ahead of a HZ news recovery.

[mrscruff] 27/5/2024 23:41

There will be nothing of significance unless they want to declare a use of a credit facility to fast track production. I am not one for a loan but would happily pay 19.5p to raise funds.

[eaglehaslanded] 27/5/2024 20:48

Joe answered me on when Q1 will be out, it's planned for May 30

[jailbird] 26/5/2024 21:16

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Colombia-Aims-to-Boost-Oil-Production-to-1-Million-Bpd.amp.htmlSnippet Despite a bold climate stance, Colombia is looking to increase its oil production to 1 million barrels per day by encouraging drillers to ramp up activity in underutilized exploration blocks, according to the country's energy ministry.Energy Minister Andrés Camacho emphasized the government's strategy to revitalize "lazy contracts"-agreements signed 10 to 15 years ago that have so far seen minimal exploration efforts. Camacho believes this approach can elevate production to approximately 800,000 bpd by year-end, a rise from the Q1 average of 774,000 bpd.

[dunns_river_falls] 26/5/2024 11:28

Stockopedia show Q1 results for Tuesday 28th.

[eaglehaslanded] 26/5/2024 11:02

Ok, thanks! Does anyone know when it is?

[king suarez] 26/5/2024 10:47

Bank holiday in the UK tomorrow, so I doubt it!

[eaglehaslanded] 26/5/2024 10:44

Q1 tomorrow?

[mrscruff] 25/5/2024 08:37

Yes greater than market cap. It does leave me wondering why Arrow did not simply start with horizontals. I presume they just did not have the data and geological confidence to warrant the extra spend. On the flipside the opportunity is clear and the risk reward one of the best, compounded byex- investors who wanted to sell who should have held ahead of the what this management have... a tack record of companies being taken over.

[lexion] 24/5/2024 17:21

I've not factored in highish decline rates from previous drills so v happy if we were to end up iro 500 bopd net to us from the hz drills 4 now in this drill phase with 1or 2 more on return later in year adding 2500 bopd to existing output - with a little luck from drills at Baquiano and Matteguafa maintaining current 3000bopd I would be v pleased with 6k per day by eoy Net back at $55 a barrel would give $9m a month !!!- I think that sounds good

[the_gold_mine] 24/5/2024 16:59

Lexion: I'm personally confident we will get something out of these HZ wells, the real question is how much.

Management have a good track record of identifying the best targets and drilling them first, any disappointments have generally occurred several wells after the primary target has been drilled.

Two examples:-

CN-1 produced at peak flowrate during test of 1,222 bopd on the Ubaque, before being tested at 1,272 BOPD and put onto production on the C7 section. This was the first well drilled by management on the CN field and was a gusher (for want of a better word).

RCE-2 produced at a peak flowrate of 1,272 BOPD on the C7/C7 Stringer. This was the first well this management team drilled on the RCE field. Another stonking well.

I'm expecting significantly better performance for CNB-H1 given the increased production associated with horizontals and managements track record and wealth of horizontal experience brought in for the CNB horizontal drilling programme.

AIMHO/DYOR

[lexion] 24/5/2024 15:38

8 days into the 1st HZ - I'm thinking TD by next weekend- should get exciting later on next week - we live in hope !

[haideralifool] 23/5/2024 10:58

. sorry wrong board

[swanvesta] 23/5/2024 07:40

Has anyone looked into this TSXV company? Another early stage growth story with a good bit of cash on hand and management with credentials and skin in the game. Lots of warrants to convert apparently, so no hurry (and no pump here either - just curious what others think):


(Apologies for the OT... but it is at least South America!)

[mount teide] 21/5/2024 21:18

EHL - 'EUR (well life) it is estimated at 550 MBbls of oil according to the reserves analysis (official values). That represents a recovery factor of 36%.
However, management’s estimates are a bit more optimistic with decline analysis, showing 750 MBbls with the actual data we have. We do not have much historical data but the data we have shows a 53% recovery factor.'

This is a similar recovery factor to what Parex Resources is achieving at their light/med oil fields.

While Parex's heavy oil fields, which currently generate 86% of the total oil production of circa 56k/bopd, have recovery factors between 30% and 60%. Outstanding production results achieved las year from 5 proof of concept horizontal wells drilled at one of their heavy oil fields, is expected to materially increase the recovery factor/field life. To such an extent, Parex is planning to drill horizontal wells at a number of other heavy oil fields considered suitable for the technology.

Arrow v Parex - 2023
OPEX
$10.42/bbl - Parex
$9.39/bbl - Arrow

Royalty - Oil
$14.1/bbl - Parex
$9.39/bbl - Arrow

Differential to Brent - Realised Sales Price Including Transportation Cost
-$11.2/bbl - Parex (mostly heavy oil)
-$7.7/bbl - Arrow (mostly light oil)

Operating Netback
$44.8/bbl - Parex
$53.9/bbl - Arrow

AIMHO/DYOR

[eaglehaslanded] 21/5/2024 18:15

MTYou are welcome! I wish you better health, you are definitely the most respected poster here.What are your thoughts after reading the answer from Joe, if I may ask?

[mount teide] 21/5/2024 14:15

EHL - many thanks.

[rockyride] 21/5/2024 09:35

Looking a bit perkier. Times have changed with O&G shares, we no longer see rises on Spud or run up to drilling results but with the potential so large with the results of HZ1, i wonder if we may see bit more strengthening of share price as we see May out and move into the expected results of our first horizontal in week 1 or 2 of June.I know this is totally different than the ADV drill a while ago but a frigging lot depends on this result for AXL. With a great result of >1,000boepd net we will fly, with >500boepd we will do well but should we come in

[eaglehaslanded] 20/5/2024 17:08

MT, previous email from Joe:I am including Giovanni (VP Engineering) on this email in case you have any follow up well/reserve questions. EUR (well life) it is estimated at 550 MBbls of oil according to the reserves analysis (official values). That represents a recovery factor of 36%.However, management's estimates are a bit more optimistic with decline analysis, showing 750 MBbls with the actual data we have. We do not have much historical data but the data we have shows a 53% recovery factor.In terms of years of production, average decline analysis shows production until 2042. 20 year wells more or less. For your records RCE-1 has recovered 341,000 bbls to dateRCE-2 has recovered 317,000 bbls to dateRCS-1 has recovered 155,000 bbls to date Hope that helps. ThanksJoe

[buffythebuffoon] 18/5/2024 18:58

Many thanks MT for the comprehensive and informative reply.

Buffy

[mount teide] 18/5/2024 11:31

Video - Thanks for the link.

Interesting to hear that Arrow has strengthened the team and now have people who collectively have been involved in planning & drilling over 400 horizontal wells.

Additionally, that CN Horizontal well modelling suggests the Ubaque has the potential to deliver 2.0 million bbls (gross) of ultimate recovery per horizontal well.

Over a 5 year commercial life, that's equivalent to an average production of 550 bbls NET per day, for a combined drilling and completion cost per well of circa $2.75m.

At $85 Brent less the $15 well head discount for a heavy oil grade & transportation cost, each CN Horizontal well has the potential to generate circa $70m of sales revenue over 5 years - more than 25 times the drilling/completion cost for a well with an OPEX of less than $5/bbl. Suggesting from an investment perspective, an outstanding level of Margin of Safety / Downside Protection.

AIMHO/DYOR