Arrow Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[pastybap] 30/4/2024 09:51

Note how high level these operating expenses are. This is everything inc drilling, COS, overheads etc so it is entirely normal to expect, given the increased level of activity in the year.

[swanvesta] 30/4/2024 09:42

Someone querying expenses:


Did some calcs for day to day expenses in Q4 vs 2023 overall, both in absolute terms and per boe sold:

Opex was 83% higher in Q4 than the average for the year, +55% in terms of per boe production. G&A 26% and 8% respectively (the latter more like 20% if you allow for the 284 bbls/d sold from inventory in Q4.)

Were these workovers all done in Q4? "This [opex] increase is mainly due to workovers completed during 2023 for $1,575,121 and new operating expenses incurred in the Company's new Carrizales Norte field in the Tapir block."

[buffythebuffoon] 30/4/2024 09:18

Thanks RR.

Buffy

[rockyride] 30/4/2024 08:57

Buffy - yesI originally spoke to James Asensio and my complaint was passed to Henry Fitzgerald-O'Connor who was away skiing. Upon Henry's return, he called me for a full brief and then called Marshall. He called me back after his call with Marshall to say he had raised all my concerns with him and asked him to stick to the real numbers in the future on media. Henry also said having looked in to my points, I was correct and Marshall had said that he would not have. He said, although we strictly scrutinise and sign off RNS, we can be with these guys all the time but I'm sure Marshall understands what I've said to him. He said we will probably see less media moving forward but gave me his mobile number for me to call him direct if I consider Marshall stepping out of line again in front of camera.

[henley2] 30/4/2024 08:56

Snouts in the trough.
On top of providing director loans to exercise their 9p warrants, the last lot of options were exercised for cash settlement, so they didn’t even hang on to the shares.
Roll on the AGM!

[buffythebuffoon] 30/4/2024 08:46

RR,

“Luckily I’m in the blue but I am not happy about this. Marshall blatantly lied and got drawn over the coals by the NOMAD, hence the lack of media for a while.”

Do you know this for a fact?

Buffy

[rockyride] 30/4/2024 08:38

Luckily I'm in the blue but I am not happy about this. Marshall blatantly lied and got drawn over the coals by the NOMAD, hence the lack of media for a while. But he went on a massive PR trip, singing the story from the hilltops and putting it over in a way that convinced PI's to think that Arrow was an attractive proposition all the way up to 27p. then issue some official news via RNS and when the truth was known, the share price dropped to 21p. then guess what, issue a load of BOD / employee options at 37.5c with no performance metrics attached. They could at least have put in 6kboped by the end of 2024 and 10k by the end of 2025 for example or some numbers along those lines. Why would they ever want to start dividends when they can earn their money this easy! I have recently sold some shares at a profit and am considering selling more and just sticking with a trimmed down version. It's always been my plan to start switching to income stocks which I've started and may take some more off the table here to continue my transition a bit faster than I planned.

[che7win] 30/4/2024 08:28

We have now had 1 in 10 shares which will be handed free to directors with no risk to them if things go bad.That is excessive in the extreme.

[jailbird] 30/4/2024 08:07

This all hinges on HZ wells being good now , especially the first one .I am pee'd with the BoD right now , and over delivery of the recent presentation to investors and then under delivering RNS' after that . Does not send a good message in the short term .Disappointing to see productions values lower year end .Does that 10k by 2025 should lowered ?Long term as reserves increase , then we should see value on selling the assets but we have couple of years to wait for that

[rockyride] 30/4/2024 08:04

The 2023 results show incredible growth compared to 2022. We are quite proud of the accomplishment, but there is still more work to do. No media / speaking events are planned right now. We are very focused on the first HZ well that we plan to spud in May and have on production in June. After the simulation work we completed, we believe now, more than ever, that the development of the Ubaque formation at Carrizales Norte is best done with horizontal wells. We are also pleased with the Canacol block trade that was completed.

[dunns_river_falls] 30/4/2024 07:52

One positive might be that they were always likely to do this if they expect the share price to rise significantly. If the price drops, there will be no point exercising the options. Also in the event of a takeover they get maximum benefit now. Lucky them.

[dunns_river_falls] 30/4/2024 07:41

If they want shares at this price, buy them on the market and save the dilution. Put some real skin in the game. They had better get on and deliver over the next 6 months. No excuse now that they are suitably incentivised...

[jungmana] 30/4/2024 07:40

Total options about 27 million ;The Options have a strike price of CAD 0.375, and vest in thirds on each of the first, second and third anniversaries of grant. The options expire six months from vesting. Following these grants, the Company shall have a total 27,198,334 options issued under the Plan

[rockyride] 30/4/2024 07:37

And when they buy the shares, they'll no doubt buy them with Director loans from the company.

[dunns_river_falls] 30/4/2024 07:32

Its not 10% dilution. That's the maximum allowable.

Edited as these extra options do indeed take them up to 10%

[che7win] 30/4/2024 07:24

Not nil cost, there is really no difference in these options than having a 10% share placing for shareholders.

It's crazy dilution and excessive, why not have the strike price much higher to provide an incentive?

[pastybap] 30/4/2024 07:16

Strike price is approx todays price. I would class nil cost or a heavily discounted strike price as daylight robbery. Here, they only benefit if we do too.

[jungmana] 30/4/2024 07:12

Thanks . Missed that news

[che7win] 30/4/2024 07:11

Jungmana, Yes, they sold out last week

[jungmana] 30/4/2024 07:10

Have conacol sold out? That tr1

[che7win] 30/4/2024 07:06

10% of shares now are stock options with no incentives.Daylight robbery

[mount teide] 29/4/2024 18:07

KS - my non-accountant calculation suggested using a break-even 'contribution' from the Canadian Nat Gas for 2023. Thanks for confirming this was a reasonable assumption.

Management benchmarked the market value of the Canadian assets in 2021 at circa $15m - they should have secured a buyer! Some of us here strongly suggested that to them during spring/summer 2022 when Alberta Nat Gas prices averaged between $5-7/mmBtu, as at $10m a well to drill and $1.5m to complete, the break even numbers at the $1-3/mmbtu mostly seen before and after that period looked deeply unimpressive.

We could have drilled 5 horizontal wells on Carrizales Norte for that $15m - with the potential to generate a combined $70m of sales revenue in the first year, from just 50% of the modelled production rate, at a sales price equal to the average oil price since 2021, after adjustment for the small well-head collection discount.

AIMHO/DYOR

[king suarez] 29/4/2024 17:09

Che7win,

"Taking Canada gas, over the year natural gas sales are $1,617,022 and royalties and expenses are nearly $6.6m, so that produces a loss of the year of $6.2m."

I think this is misleading. Note 18 appears to be attributing a huge portion of administrative and other expenses to Canada, otherwise the maths doesn't make sense.

If you look a bit further up the page it states oil production was 1,805bbs/d average, with an operating expense of $9.39/bbl -> total operating expenses for oil were $6.4m and gas were $1.6m totalling $8m.

The additional $20m within Note 18 is made up of:

Admin $10m
Depletion $12m

Then we have a bit of FX gains of around $2m..

In reality the gas is costing AXL a few hundred $k per annum. I guess they will keep it running (but no new drilling) in the hopes gas prices rise in winter and offset the costs of stop/starting the wells again?