Arrow Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[royalalbert] 13/12/2024 08:26

Yep does help in certain areas of the world.

[pastybap] 13/12/2024 08:23

Normally im a bit sniffy about ESG. But AXL seem so good at managing government and community relationships, its actually a bit of a competitive advantage for us.

[oakville] 13/12/2024 08:05

Yes. A good read, it was posted on X late last night.

[royalalbert] 12/12/2024 13:00

HAT, MT, RR nice posts. K3 we will have to see what the outcome of this is.

[kaos3] 12/12/2024 11:41

a strange aspect - AA was involved in vog which did not end well - in his own country afaik where his team (a larger group operating out of hong kong) was calling the shots

he did integrate diary companies to create one of the worlds leading diary company

he is building critical masses in his industry leading regional companies in his chosen industries as far as i got it, with huge operational inputs - as it is the case with his board representation first on ptal, then on axl

can you answer me - how was he able to enter axl after axl has proven itself as a huge opportunity with 16 % in the middle of the run up? it was like a huge gift ....

if the answer is ... there was a seller and he happened to be around and simply bought it - i agree

it is all out of my jester memory so you better fact check me as RA did

PS - i will not dig myself into position of defending my theory - because that would be stoopid. it was just a very simple thought which i shared for a further discussion. too see if it holds.

[mount teide] 12/12/2024 11:20

Considering that Marshall has already developed the company to produce over 5,500 bopd from E&P activity on just two (third currently under exploration drilling) hydrocarbon bearing prospects each with up to 5 reservoir targets along the length of JUST 2 of the 6 fault lines containing fault-bounded prospects that run North-South across the width of the Tapir block - I see little likelihood whatsoever that he and the Board, along with most if not all the II and high net worth shareholders that follow him, giving AA any encouragement with respect to taking the company out earlier than Marshall's preferred production timetable.

Upside Valuation Potential

Completion of the 2025 drilling campaign could well see AXL hit the 10,000 bopd trade sale target, with the company having still only partially explored and initially developed fault bounded multiple hydrocarbon bearing prospects along just half of the Tapir Block's 6 fault lines.

With the huge upside potential built into a deal then, of multiple prospects along the length of the other three fault lines PLUS the highly material potential from the proposed partnership with Canacol to develop the extension of the Oso Pardo oil field into the adjacent VMM2 block.

A partnership which in addition would offer the extraordinary opportunity of being the first E&P company to explore the conventional prospects across the length and breadth of the huge, very attractively located VMM2 block, with a gross size of 72,500 acres - larger than AXL's 65,154 acre Tapir Block, since the original VMM2 License was awarded for unconventional E&P activity only (fracking of ultra deep prospects).

The very shallow, ultra low drilling cost Oso Pardo field has similar reservoir thickness & characteristics to CN's Ubaque and horizontal drilling possibilities, along with the potential to double current P2 Reserves.

AIMHO/DYOR

[beaks44] 12/12/2024 11:00

Its an interesting theory, is there any history of AA acting in this way?

[kaos3] 12/12/2024 10:09

if my theory holds - following it in a forensic way for 6 months ... also timing is perfectly chosen.... going into 3 weeks of low activity markets... easy to get the share price right for ones own purposes

and he is not alone .... texas blue blood is behind him ... and that counts a lot in Columbia

eg - following him as a sole entity does not meet the necessary research standards

[spellbrook] 12/12/2024 09:44

RA Sold holding in another company so could be something in it

[rockyride] 12/12/2024 09:36

MT & HAT and just to add a comment from the company I received:-We have noted the recent share price action and while disappointing, we are not aware of or have seen any evidence of manipulation of our share price. The team remains in close contact with its advisors and any major holder crossing ownership thresholds would have to declare their new position through TR-1.My main concern is that Askar Alshinbeyev may have plans to do something corporately with AXL that may not be in our best interests. And as he owns 16% he would not have to notify the market of a reduction in his % until he reaches his new position, whether it be 14% 11% or whatever. Having said that, it does look like the gap to the downside has been filled now and that the seller is done. TR-1's are not always issues real time so we could possibly still see something over the next few days.Am very heavily loaded myself now and whilst the low 20's still seem extremely attractive I am just about managing (with great difficulty) to refrain from adding anymore. I will hold what I've got and am hoping to see a run to test 30's again within the next few months, especially if the exploration drill bit finds something/s commercial.OT can not wait to see my largest holding over at SAVE come back to the market as the relisted share price could clearly move significantly either up and down from the 26.35p suspended price. Happy Birthday today Savannah Energy on your 2nd Anniversary since your suspension RNS!

[mount teide] 12/12/2024 08:51

With respect to my health situation, for the sake of transparency the retail seller is not me. Have not sold any shares since I started building a position in AXL immediately post IPO some 3 years ago and, despite the highly compelling entry/average-up price this week, have not increased the position for the reason given previously - reached the shareholding limit I feel comfortable with, after a number of previous 'that's it' final purchases for the family holding.

AIMHO

[here and there] 12/12/2024 08:31

Right then. I have been on the case re this seller. No idea who it is, asked everywhere, brokers, company, market makers,II. Not II but retail with a big position. Shorecap has had the stock to shift. It finished yesterday. I have bought a couple of clips this week to top up on this idiotic pull back, including a last 100k top up yesterday at 21p. It got called up straight after I took that last wedge. Should be good to go now. Everyone knows the fundamentals here. These prices are a gift.

[mount teide] 11/12/2024 21:39

DRF - Your list of oilers struggling with sector sentiment this year could have been cheered up a little with the inclusion of Valeura Energy - first mentioned here two years ago after building a shareholding in the stock following the announcement of its first acquisition in SE Asia, secured for a net $10m after adjustments.

Valeura is a good example of what can still be achieved in a difficult market at the current oil price by a small cap second phase O&G operator.....the stock is up 144% YTD to a new all-time high today.

Valeura has generated over 1,000% of capital growth in 2 years from the ongoing performance and subsequent development of the asset which is located in the benign shallow waters of the Gulf of Thailand.

At a share price of $6.97 and current market cap of $735m, following the recent announcement of a very successful 5 well infill drilling programme and with further development of the asset underway, fair value looks around $10. With further upside potential from a much talked about second acquisition that is taking longer than expected to secure, probably because of the management's exacting valuation demands.

AIMHO/DYOR

[royalalbert] 11/12/2024 20:51

Nice one KS, plus reserves, all that for a company valued at £62m, hmmmm.

[mount teide] 11/12/2024 18:50

KS - Great post.....thanks

[king suarez] 11/12/2024 15:13

For what it's worth here are my forecast financials. Revenue is net of transport:

FY 2024:

Revenue $78m

Royalties ($10m)

Opex ($9m)

Admin ($12m)

Depletion ($17m)

Profit before tax $30m

Tax ($12m)

Profit after tax $18m



FY 2025 (based on 6476 bpd average and $72 Brent):

Revenue $154m

Royalties ($19m)

Opex ($14m)

Admin ($13m)

Depletion ($29m)

PBT $79m

Tax ($31m)

Profit after tax = $48m

Forward p/e ratio of 1.6

EBITDA $104m, cash flow $76m (stripping out non-cash depletion) less the $50m capex budget = $26m increase in cash in bank ending 2025 on $45m (inc the $19m currently in bank).

I worked out revenue based on c$65/bbl net of transport as per latest MD&A. Depletion I worked out based on the charge for Q3 and the barrels produced. Opex is at $6/bbl as per latest accounts (might drop as evidenced by the lower margin cost of recent wells). Tax is @ 40% (might be lower if there are things to deduct against). Admin I just assume a small increase on 2024?

[chessman2] 11/12/2024 14:27

It’s one continuous game for me!

All because I’m losing at the moment doesn’t mean I won’t win the game!!

[kaos3] 11/12/2024 14:01

RA exactly .... this is why i invest - for fun mostly
intelectual curiosity

[royalalbert] 11/12/2024 12:55

If anyone likes the game of chess they should be loving this at present.

[charleysays] 11/12/2024 12:24

The 200k is a buy at 21.44p. No-one could have sold at that price at that time.

[oakville] 11/12/2024 12:19

Is that another 200k sold? OR a delayed purchase from an our ago?

[charleysays] 11/12/2024 12:09

The gap down was firmly filled yesterday by a wick when a trade for 20p printed. I can’t see a higher gap up.

[jungmana] 11/12/2024 12:02

There is an 820k sell just reported from yesterday

[kaos3] 11/12/2024 11:58

gap reminder - almost there

only for interested