Arrow Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[highly geared] 07/10/2024 21:38

The sell off from 32p was directly correlated with the fall in the POO from low $80’s to low $70’s.

Whilst the POO is already back over $80 , it seems the market has got the jitters around the direction/volatility of the oil price and those that took money off the table haven’t recommitted.

Geopolitically , we seem to have opposing forces of supply threats due to the Isreal conflict v OPEC ( Saudi etc) wanting to increase output.

Logically, $70 would seem a floor ( below this , supply gets choked off in the USA due to production costs) + most of OPEC need prices above $80 longer term.

$75-$85 appears the sweet spot which validates AXL as an exceptional investment based on its net-backs and likely increased P2 reserves following the success of the 2024 drilling program to date.

[charleysays] 07/10/2024 20:30

UpWeGo - have a look on LSE, AXL is not included in the fossil fuels sector index, so you’re right that it’s off radar.

[pastybap] 07/10/2024 19:12

You light find it hits more peoples radars and filters once it sustains a market cap in excess of 100m. Thats not too far off now.

[upwego] 07/10/2024 18:50

Couple of weeks for the next well and will be over the 2024 target.

I noticed that MA in the presentation mentioned production of 5400 and rns was 5800 even that didn’t move us.

He obviously planed to mention a lower figure and also mentioning the well is increasing and then shouted an additional 400bopd.

I’m totally convinced that’s it’s just not on as many radars as most oil shares. That will change though in due course. Only a million odd traded a day and that’s on a good day.

I also noticed no massive volume after the presentation which I thought was pretty good and beat expectations when releasing the news Monday. 🤔

[charleysays] 07/10/2024 17:52

Sellers beget sellers sometimes. If any volume steps in because of the price rise in oil, then any PI selling will lessen. That’s the idea but Arrow share price is often contrarian.

[pastybap] 07/10/2024 17:51

I wouldnt be 100 per cent sure that ISAs wont be touched by this chancellor either!

[return_of_the_apeman] 07/10/2024 17:35

They could just bed&isa it in which case it would show up as two very closely matched trades

Regardless of the rest of the market - Brent is at 80.5, money is rolling in here :-)

[multibagger] 07/10/2024 15:55

RR,
People may not need the cash but keeping an eye on potential tax changes on the 30th Oct/ Rachel's Halloween Budget and therefore selling/moving into ISAs etc.

[royalalbert] 07/10/2024 15:43

I'd go for 1,

On another note,

[rockyride] 07/10/2024 15:40

Somebody or people either:-1 Need some cash2 Don't like the outlook for Arrow or3 Are locking in some profits

[royalalbert] 07/10/2024 09:39

HAT also add in the option of another rig being approved.

[here and there] 05/10/2024 14:37

HZ1 16/5-19/6 34 days
HZ2 19/6-31/7 42 days
HZ3 31/7-29/8 29 days
HZ4 29/8-23/9 25 days

Except for HZ2 they are getting more efficient, so, being conservative, let's assume 25-30 days for the next two

HZ5 23/9-21/10 28 days(it's a Monday)
HZ6 21/10-18/11 28 days (another Monday)

Two weeks de-mob and mob to Baquiano
Spud Baquiano 2/12....result by year end (the first CN vertical took 26 days)

End of November quarterly results and budget/drilling/operational plans for 2025.


US elections 5th. November. Opec plus plans will be clearer post the elections.

[dunns_river_falls] 04/10/2024 16:54

RockyRide30 Sep '24 - 21:48 - 9501 of 9569

HZ6 is progressing well and on schedule.

[upwego] 04/10/2024 16:52

HG

Yeah i was thinking the same myself.

cheers

[highly geared] 04/10/2024 16:42

On September 23rd they said “The Petroworks rig is being moved to the sixth cellar on the Carrizales Norte B Pad where the Company plans to spud the fifth horizontal well (CNB HZ-6).”

So I’d reasonably assume HZ-6 has been spud with results likely to be announced late w/c 21st October or w/c 28 October.

[upwego] 04/10/2024 15:55

Have we spudded the next well? anyone know?

[tanners] 04/10/2024 10:52

Give it a rest TTB.

As to the oil price, whilst a spike is obviously beneficial, I don't think its helpful when based on (hopefully) a short term ramp up of hostilities in the Middle East, and would rather see a stable, sustainable price around mid $70s.

[pastybap] 04/10/2024 10:21

Ahh yes, ignorant about the history of the region I lived and experienced first hand.. No point arguing with stupid etc etc so I will say no more on the matter.Anyway, back to AXL. With all the volatility in oil price lately, does anyone know what price we usually sell at? Is it a daily spot price derived from Brent? Or is it set weekly or monthly etc?

[rockyride] 04/10/2024 09:18

And on MA's first slide at proactive there was a bullet point which he did not talk through like all the other bullet points and it said something like:-Active in the M&A market

[taurusthebear] 04/10/2024 09:15

No Israeli apologists, please. Let's stick to humanitarian stuff.

[buffythebuffoon] 04/10/2024 08:46

Well said HAT.

Regarding the SP, I’ve seen this share price behaviour a number of times. A series of drilling successes sees a significant increase in SP, then it becomes an expectation and results in a muted response to good news. It’s not happened to AXL to date but any less than stellar results sees a disproportionate drop.

As ever, this only concerns those with highly leveraged positions. If you have low leverage or have fully paid for positions then you can serenely watch the share price movements safe in the knowledge that the end game will be highly satisfactory.

Buffy

[bosbus] 04/10/2024 08:28

especially when you are as ignorant about history as pb

[here and there] 04/10/2024 08:22

Let's stick to Arrow exploration and macro stuff on oil and gas. It's been a great BB,no poilitics or football required! Partisan nonsense.