Arrow Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[king suarez] 12/6/2024 09:13

"What would a company be worth with 10kbopepd production, 25mboe 2P and zero debt?"

Assuming they can maintain the very generous current netbacks and not have too onerous sustaining capex to maintain that level of production then anything north of 65p for AXL imo. 65p would be my minimum for that, £1+ not impossible if further exploration/production can be proven.

Hoping we get something on Oso Pardo licence soon as that could be a double whammy to ignite the share price along with horizontal success. Imagine - a potential 4k bopd extra development unlocked with the cash flow to fast-track it, along with what is currently being developed...

[mount teide] 12/6/2024 09:03

Warren Buffet continues to see excellent value in the O&G upstream sector, by increasing his stake in Occidental Petroleum this week - averaging up at a price some SIX times what he paid for stock close to the covid lows.

Berkshire Hathaway upped its stake in Occidental Petroleum by purchasing 2.6 million shares to lift its shareholding to 250.6 million shares/$15bn - a 28% interest in the U.S. energy company.

[rockyride] 12/6/2024 08:36

Oh and forgot to say - assume Brent was $85 at the time.

[rockyride] 12/6/2024 08:33

What would a company be worth with 10kbopepd production, 25mboe 2P and zero debt?

[here and there] 12/6/2024 07:56

Ramp up production and , in particular, producing reserves, and sell it for as much cash as possible.

[dicko80] 11/6/2024 12:17

Afternoon all,

Just carrying out DD over the last week, bought over 100k

Intrigued to see the results of the first horizontal..

I note the company wants to get to 10kbopd but does anyone know the intentions of the board ?

Is the end game , to sell up ?

Or is it the intention to just ramp up production

TIA

[mrscruff] 11/6/2024 08:46

MT, while the risk-reward seems like a no-brainer, if investors are refraining from buying in until we have the results of the first horizontal then there is an advantage. By refraining buying, the risk is further reduced, and investors can still have more horizontal wells to go. However, waiting also carries some risk if the market moves ahead of the results. Nonetheless, there remains upside potential with the next drills if the first is successful at any share price I think.

I like many here though are fully invested.

[tim000] 10/6/2024 13:24

I’ve bought 35k today.

[mount teide] 10/6/2024 13:04

36k/£12k of transaction volume by midday on what is likely to be the last Monday before the announcement of a relatively high chance of success drill, with the potential at even 50% of the modelled/forecast production to be a totally transformational result for the company!

The downside risk of complete failure of the CNB-HZ-1 horizontal well is close to zero - why?

* The well would still be used as a Ubaque or C7 producing vertical, AND

* Last year the drilling of 11 vertical wells, self funded from cash flow, saw AXL double production and still end up with the same amount of net cash by year end....an outstanding achievement.

[mount teide] 09/6/2024 15:45

Indeed, if the drilling progresses in line with the guidance previously communicated to the market, the horizontal section of the well should be completed by the end of the first week of June, with initial production results notified to the market around the end of the second week.

[tim000] 09/6/2024 15:07

I certainly got the impression from company communications that results would be available in the coming week.

[eaglehaslanded] 09/6/2024 14:19

Yes Joe has been very helpful. I have not asked him anything for a while and will wait for the result. Should we expect results the coming week? What do you think?

[tim000] 09/6/2024 13:51

The horizontal wells look like a game changer to me. I’ve bought in this last week. The natural rate of decline of the vertical wells is higher than I feel comfortable with. But it seems like the horizontal wells will be able to access a higher proportion of the reservoir, have higher rates of production and lower rates of natural decline. If so, I’m sure this will quickly be reflected in the share price. PS. Joe’s IR communications are to be congratulated, really helpful.

[mount teide] 06/6/2024 09:05

Such has been the success of the horizontal wells drilled by the two leading independents during the last 18 months in similar geology across the Llanos basin, if the results are a reliable guide, the gross flush production from CNB-HZ1 may have the potential to be greater than AXL's current total production.

[rockyride] 06/6/2024 08:42

Looks like the traders like the Tweeet. And Marshall said they hoped to test 1st week in June and release results 2nd week of June. I think we may see a rise today / tomorrow and early next week if results are not released Monday / Tuesday. I've pencilled in 700boepd net to Arrow for each well with a lower decline than our verticals. As I say, Ive reduced pending results and will stick to that but more than happy to buy back higher if it proves to be that HZ1 is a success. Looking forward to results ASAP and should we see >1,000boepd I think we will all be very happy with the rise. I would definitely expect to see a new 52 week high before we get to HZ3.

[here and there] 06/6/2024 08:28

Time flys so quickly. Within a couple of weeks we will have the first real data on the Ubaque CN horizontal well. They have done all the work, seismics, multiple verticle wells. It is a thick and consistant reservoir. The horizontal will be exposed to 1500 feet of reservoir , not 15 as per the verticals. Let's hope there are no technical issues and we get a good clean result. Very very excited for this, feels like the first CN well from a year ago and the first RCE well from two years go. Potential game changer and a massive accelorator for production, reserve growth and a sale.

[rockyride] 06/6/2024 07:51

Tweet a few hours ago. Looking positive as they've put this out and good to see the word 'subject'. Any way here goes:-Post Period End highlights for Q1 include the spudding of the 1st horizontal well from the CNB pad. Subject to successful completion, the planned CNB HZ wells are expected to result in a positive increase in production rates.

[rockyride] 05/6/2024 21:36

All the more reason for traders to be buying after the hit on oil and a 21p buy price for a stock that could quite possibly add 33% to its current total production within that next 10 days.

[timjames5784] 05/6/2024 20:15

Pretty well all oil companies are down this week due to the oil price. Nothing to do with the drill

[rockyride] 05/6/2024 19:47

Strange not to see traders buying on the run up to HZ1 results which couple possibly come this week / by end of next week. In fact we are seeing quite the opposite and more sells than buys. If volumes were higher I would even think that something had leaked and that the drill was not looking very positive. Time will tell and we should know soon anyway.

[fictitious1] 05/6/2024 17:08

I wonder how much the oil price may be artifically suppressed to aid the election campaigns on both side of the pond?

[mount teide] 05/6/2024 15:47

In the month prior to the Opec+ June meeting 'speculators' had driven the short position in oil up to a multi decade high, equal to that hit at the height of the pandemic when oil demand was nearly 15m barrels/day lower than today's record 103m bbls/d.

[11_percent] 05/6/2024 12:11

Indeed.....OPEC+ showed some weakness......and oil got hammered.

[here and there] 05/6/2024 11:42

No, unless oil hits $100 plus and there is an opportunity to lock in some $90 oil. Everything I read suggests oil trades sideways for this year in the 70-100 range.

I think sales were caused by the oil price drop which was caused by the latest OPEC + plans. Traders having fun.