Arrow Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[king suarez] 03/5/2024 15:40

PTAL are paying 6 cents per share minimum (+ extra atm due to higher oil price - last qtr was 2 cents instead of 1.5 cents) along with the buybacks. The minimum works out just over 10% (but has 15% witholding tax to pay).

[rockyride] 03/5/2024 15:22

How much dividend are PTAL paying? I've noticed their buybacks but it not seem to move share price yet.

[taurusthebear] 03/5/2024 15:13

As predicted, AXL sub 20p, waiting on HZ news. Do I add here sub 20p, or take a position in TXP sub 40p or JSE sub 30p? Tough one! No hurry. The latter two seem more risky and accident-prone. All that said, maybe I'll just add to PTAL - static share price but a juicy divi. :0)

[eaglehaslanded] 03/5/2024 10:31

Malcy:Arrow Exploration CorpI have been talking a bit about the fact that the 21.2% stake in Arrow held by Canacol was up for sale and I am glad to see that the cross has just printed at 18.5p. Talking around I think that Canacol sold to an institutional investor and associates.Arrow is showing a change in trajectory now that this stake from former founders Canacol Energy is now held I understand by a new group of investors lead by industry veteran and independent energy investor Gavin Wilson.Arrow, a notable performer, had surged since its introduction to London's Aim market in October 2021, experiencing a remarkable 60% increase this year alone. Canacol Energy then revealed its intention to sell assets due to balance sheet pressures, initiating the stake's availability last month impacting the Arrow price.This change of investors is likely a source of satisfaction for Arrow, as the stake had been casting a shadow on the market, causing shares to dip from recent highs. With the stake having been hanging over the market, this clearance today, and to a highly respected investor is clearly good news.Chief Investment Officer Gavin Wilson's extensive experience, coupled with his involvement in other major invested companies such as Afentra, TAG Oil, and PetroTal Corp., further solidifies the credibility of this move. He has built up a reputation for supporting smaller exploration companies and offering expertise in the sector, often taking a board seat, that results in turn-around results for world class energy investments that have latent potential. The placement signals confidence in Arrow's potential.Arrow has been a favoured stock of mine for a while and has been on the Bucket List almost since it came to the London market in 2021. Having fallen from the recent peak and with stability back in the market place I suspect that the shares are now looking very attractive.

[swanvesta] 02/5/2024 13:20

dilip, did you miss the discussion of water management? They are optimising production vs water cut and are constrained until they increase water disposal capacity (in the works.)

[dilip40] 02/5/2024 12:38

mt post 8000

re production this is weighing on peoples minds. no explanation from ma. hence the share price is 21p and could head to the old 18p

[unnd] 02/5/2024 11:24

Why have we not seen a TR1 from the entity or entities who bought the Canacol shares at 18.5p. Are they selling some for a quick profit as there does seem to be some large sells going through the book.
Or is RockyRide reducing his holding :)

[extrader] 01/5/2024 15:24

Perhaps that's the trade-off - with an eye on eventual monetisation - spend more time/ money building up reserves, rather than expand production ?

Occam's razor ?

GLA

[here and there] 01/5/2024 13:13

MT - simplistic? yes...sorry! For the reasons I stated

I think we are singing from the same hymn book tbh.

Doubling from what figure?

The average Q4 2023 number or the higher exit rate?

And remember...doubling production in 2024 is the goal, the wish, the ambition...it is not a promise.

Remember, it is on shore so cheaper production, great netbacks, and not only are they driving production but you neglect to mention they are growing reserves apace and that is where a huge amount of intrinsic value resides.

Once the restricted production is back on, the horizontal well is flowing at 500 bopd plus net and we are trading higher than 27p, we will all be busy back slapping and high fiving counting our growing riches.

I'm here for the buyout in 2/3 years time unless things fundamentally change of course.

[mount teide] 01/5/2024 11:42

H&E - Simplistic?

What do you expect when the management's 3,200 bopd YE figure, made it virtually impossible to make much sense of the 2,350 bopd average figure for Q4/2023, and the 2,900 bopd end of March 2024 figure.

Previously posted that I would appreciate the management putting some explanation behind these three figures. To date they've failed to do this. What they have done is to publicly state they're targeting another doubling of production in 2024..... a reasonable target considering the money being spent, and one against which shareholders and the market will have every right to hold them to account!

Effectively, the management has given shareholders and the market a YE 2024 target exit rate of 6,400 bopd.

If hit it would mean the management will have spent over $70m of shareholders funds in three years to increase production by circa 5,000 bopd.

A decent performance but hardly knocking the lights out, when you consider that Valeura Energy bought 20,000 bopd of production for $10m last year after adjustment for the cash accrued from the backdated effective date of the deal. And Jadestone Energy the year before bought 6,000 bopd of production from Petronas in a deal which saw Petronas on completion hand over the assets free of charge plus a cheque for $9.2m, such was the amount of cash that accrued to the buyer from the effective date of the deal.

Apologies if I come across as a very demanding, straight talking investor - learnt the hard way a long time ago, that the management of listed companies should not in any way be considered shareholders friends. Many are highly self serving, greedy and disingenuous individuals. In common with their NOMAD and Brokers, it would be a very smart move to check the validity/accuracy of every comment they make. It's why I carry out just as much ongoing research on an investment as I carried out before it was made.

AIMHO/DYOR

[here and there] 01/5/2024 10:37

Your maths is very simplistic MT..as you well know!

Declines, issues (as we are seeing now), failures, problems. They all happen in the O&G space. I like to be conservative, cherish a surprise to the upside. I do think 10000 bopd in 2/3 years time, 30 million plus boe in reserves is perfectly doable but it requires consistent operational delivery, something I am confident this team can continue to deliver hence I hold a decent position here.

And I used the word minimum! Language is everything!

What People are missing here which I have tried to point out a few times is this is an incremental growth story. The intial flush production pays for the well in a few months, then all the production from then on is profit, even if it settles down at 100 bopd it brings fabulous revenues and profits. There will be dozens of wells operating in a couple of years time, all having their separate issues, water cuts, production rates, declines, re-completions etc. 'Stewardship of the reservoirs' is a phrase MA uses repeatedly...not without reason!

I am here for the buyout, that is where the maximum returns will be.

I had a little top up of 45000 shares today.

[chessman2] 01/5/2024 10:23

Thanks MT. I misread the post from HaT in which case I agree that a minimum of 6000 should be extracted.

[russiaguru] 01/5/2024 10:23

I would expect the owner of the other 50% of the Tapir Block, would also be adding pressure on Arrow to see material results in 2024.

[mount teide] 01/5/2024 10:15

C2 -

'CORPORATE & 2024 BUDGET

The Company exited 2023 with a production rate EXCEEDING 3,200 boe/d net......'

[chessman2] 01/5/2024 09:58

Exit rate at year end 2023?

6000 at end of 2024 would be marvellous but surely even 5000 plus would be acceptable?

[mount teide] 01/5/2024 09:45

H&T - 'I want a minimum 4500 bopd exit rate by year end'

Oh ye of little faith!

On the balance of probabilities, this would give the management a free rein to massively underperform and still get wonderfully remunerated. Why?

The 2023 YE exit rate was 3,200 bopd - and the 2024 production development drilling programme is for 15 wells, including at least 4 high impact horizontals!

With respect, are you really suggesting that the minimum increase in production the owners of the company could reasonably expect to see the management deliver by YE 2024, after spending $45m of their funds drilling 15 wells, mostly infill, is the grand total of 1,300 bopd - at an average contribution of 87 bopd per well?

A 6,000 bopd YE 2014 exit rate would be an overall increase of 2,800 bopd - equivalent to a modest 186 bopd per well average contribution(218 bopd after allowing for an overall 15% decline rate) - hardly very demanding, particularly if the horizontal wells come in at even 50% of the expected production rate.

In my opinion, anything less than a 6,000 bopd 2024 exit rate would be disappointing, particularly if the horizontal wells perform remotely similar to the experience of ALL those drilled by other independents in the Llanos basin.

AIMHO/DYOR

[buffythebuffoon] 01/5/2024 07:20

Not a change in philosophy TGM, just the usual efforts to optimise flow and water cut, surely?

Buffy

[the_gold_mine] 30/4/2024 18:53

I note that for the most recent CN Ubaque well we are running the pump slower with a smaller choke compared to older CN Ubaque wells. There seems to be a change in well ramp up philosophy with a new phrase appearing in recent RNS for well results:

" Gradual production ramp up is intended to prevent premature water breakthrough and adds to ultimate oil recovery. "

Does anyone close to the management know what this change in philosophy is about?

------

CN-5:
Zone: Ubaque
Pump speed: 30hz
Choke size: 48/128.
Flowrate: 350bopd gross, 175bopd net.
Water cut: 8%

CN-4
Zone: Ubaque
Pump speed: 42hz,
Choke size: 128/128
Flowrate: 478bopd gross, 239bopd net.
Water cut: 7%

CN-2:
Zone: Ubaque
Pump speed: 30hz
Choke size: 128/128
Flowrate: 680 bopd gross, 340 bopd net.
Water cut: 3%

CN-1, CN-3 and CN-6 were put on production on Carbonara C7 so don't provide any insight

[mount teide] 30/4/2024 12:49

The production performance of the horizontal wells will have by far the greatest impact on the growth of the company over the next 2 years.

A similar result to the leading independents who trialed the drilling of horizontal wells on their Llanos basin acreage over recent years, has the potential to push the valuation of Arrow's business to multiples of the current level. Even at 50% of the production rate achieved by others, the return on capital employed would be outstanding.

With the result of Arrow's first horizontal Carrizales Norte well now expected within 2 months and, offering the prospect of a major acceleration in the pace of production growth......an increasing interest in the stock is likely, particularly from the long only short term trading community, considering the size of the prize on offer.

While there is no certainty of success, the incredible production performances versus vertical wells, of other operators drilling horizontal wells onshore Colombia, strongly suggests that on the balance of probabilities, it would be very surprising were Arrow not to prove up the concept at Carrizales Norte and, achieve at least 50% of the initial production rates of the other Colombian independents.

AIMHO/DYOR

[royalalbert] 30/4/2024 12:40

KS interesting take on the situation, perceptions count for a lot though.

[king suarez] 30/4/2024 12:33

Of course it's not a 'good look' for management to issue options right after the share prices has gone down, due perhaps to lack of transparency of production issues/declines.

But it was the shrewd/smart thing to do. Management are not our 'friends' they are shrewd, wealthy businessmen/operators looking to become even wealthier ones.

Timing wise they have probably picked the low in share price, just before horizontals kick-off, which will likely increase the share price. The timing is perfect (for them). These are the kind of strategic minds that we hope are going to get us a good sale price in a couple of years time. We don't want altruistic people who 'play fair' and will get bent over a barrel when negotiating a sale? We hard hard-nosed, experienced GREEDY management who will get us the best value for our assets.

You got to put ethics out the window. This is the stock market. There aren't many rich, self-sacrificing people about.

If they take the p1ss too much re: salaries etc with continual underperformance they will be voted out by main shareholders. If they make the main shareholders (and us) money - they will stay, and continue to feather their nest as best they can within the rules.

[che7win] 30/4/2024 12:15

Fair points KS, I will try yo reign in my negativity here.I intend to exercise my vote at AGM.I also chose not to add here this month and purchased elsewhere.I don't think being harsh should mean this is viewed as being a bad investment, sorry if that's how people are reading my posts.I tend to be critical of investments that I own when I see issues.Regards

[pastybap] 30/4/2024 12:15

I cant disagree with that. Im all for quality management being properly compensated, but the optics of these options the day after lower than expected production and income figures isnt too good.

[dunns_river_falls] 30/4/2024 12:11

It would be nice to know that the stalled production due to the water cut issues are resolved. I see no reason not to believe that the temporary declines wont be resolved quickly. At least they are taking appropriate measures to deal with the issue now. It has felt like a series of unfortunate events in the last few months since the share price hit 27p.

Add in production from horizontals and things should start to look a bit rosier.