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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Stock Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arrow Exploration Corp. | AXL | London | Ordinary Share |
| Price Change | Price Change % | Share Price | Last Trade
|
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | 0.00% | 28.75 | 01:00:00 |
| Open Price | Low Price | High Price | Close Price | Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28.75 | 28.75 | 28.75 | 28.75 | 28.75 |
| Industry Sector |
|---|
| AEROSPACE & DEFENCE |
| Top Posts |
|---|
Posted at 27/6/2024 12:37 by mount teide Swan - thanks - as posted previously, I would be entirely happy if the horizontal wells collectively performed at an average of 50% of the modelled rate, as this would still have the potential to deliver a highly transformative result for the company and its shareholders.So, it was very encouraging that the initial result of AXL's 'Proof of Concept' CNB-HZ-1 horizontal well strongly suggested the risk/reward of AXL's 2024 horizontal well drilling programme is likely to be excellent, and that it should increasingly strengthen an already compelling investment case.....as evidenced by AXL self financing 11 vertical wells last year, which doubled production, and yet still saw the company end the year with the same circa $12m net cash position it entered it with. It takes all views to make a market as well as a useful equity investment board. I value Advfn as it's frequented by many that collectively have a wide range of professional knowledge and management experience, such that, when working together as an investment community, invariably helps us make better informed investment decisions, and even the playing field a little with II's who have far greater access to the management. AIMHO/DYOR |
Posted at 21/6/2024 12:14 by king suarez Having a look through the Auctus note this morning.1) They have fair value for AXL producing assets + net cash at 35p currently (excluding development/explorat 2) They state "Assuming US$85/bbl for Brent until YE25, we forecast that the company will hold >US$60 mm at YE25." but then the table below detailing the forecast has an assumed Brent price just below $75/bbl so that is clearly a mistake. This also assumes just $16m capex spend for 2025. 3) They're forecating 750bopd x 3 net to AXL for the horizontals leading to a 2025 average production of 5,443bopd (plus small amount of gas). 4) They then have oil production tailing off by 25% to 4,053 bopd in 2026 with $7.5m capex spend, then a drastic almost 60% drop with zero capex spend to 2,380 bopd in 2027, and a further 35% drop to end 2028 at 1,569. 5) With Brent prices @$70 for 2026, 2027 and 2028 AXL end with 2028 $136m in net cash. If we convert this to £ then the base case is that AXL is sitting on 35p worth of net cash within 4 years, assuming no further developments after end 2024 and a fairly pessimistic oil price prediction (and very high decline assumptions?). 6) Current reserves - currently 11.7mb, however 4.5mb (suprisingly?) of this is Capella, which we know is currently shut in. 7) Exploration - Llanos basin they ascribe 28.2mb potential reserves for most of the prospects + an additional 10.4mb for the Ubaque fairway (is this where the other 10 horizontal drills might take place?). And then there is Oso Pardo, which is ascribed 14.5mb of reserves alone! And given a risked NAV of $309m, or 81p - just highlights what a game changer this could be if given the go-ahead? 7) Adding all that up it's 11.7mb current + 38.7mb (of which 8.1mb is given some chance of success rating - this alone represents 43p risked NAV) for the rest of the Llanos Basin + 14.5mb for Oso Pardo (10% COS ascribed) = 64.9mb total to go at. The Ubaque fairway has zero COS ascribed at present. 8) There's over $1.1bn in total unrisked exploration NAV which is mind-boggling to think about, and only $245m of which is the risk weighted estimate. What can you say at 24p? There's a big opportunity, even if only a fraction of this comes to fruition. You wouldn't bet against further success with the drill bit given the results so far? |
Posted at 21/6/2024 11:21 by mount teide Swan - post 8390 - thanks for the missing well data.As mentioned previously, entirely understand your thinking with respect to taking a cautious/conservativ However, AXL's Tapir Block vertical well decline rate performance to date strongly points to the effectiveness of the reservoir management activities being employed by the management compared to their peers - and which, by implication, raises the prospect of a potential replication of this outperformance also being achieved with the CN Horizontal well drilling programme. Patsybap - 'could we be looking at a much slower decline rate, given we are choking back the initial production from what would be a much higher initial flow?' AXL's Tapir Block Reservoir Management/Well performance data points to this being a likely outcome - as evidenced by the Chart on page 23 of the latest presentation, which compares the decline rate performance of AXL's RCE wells against wells drilled by our Llanos Basin peers in offsetting blocks. AXL's reservoir management is consistently delivering a MUCH slower average decline rate for the RCE wells drilled over the last 18-24 months.....after 6 months AXL is achieving an average 25% slower well decline rate, rising to a 35% slower rate after 12 months. AIMHO/DYOR |
Posted at 20/6/2024 10:28 by mount teide Swan & H&T'The improved recovery from the horizontal well drilling campaign and waterflooding projects in the Llanos 34 Block (GeoPark operated, 45% WI) also added 2P reserves.' 'Q4/2023 Results / 17th Jan 2024 - llanos Basin: Five horizontal wells were drilled and put on production in 2023. They are currently producing 10,060 bopd gross in aggregate.' 'Well now/initial year end 2024 CNZ-1 1500 500 CNZ-2 1500 700 CNZ-3 1500 900 CNZ-4 1500 1100' Medium/Heavy oil has been produced from the equally thick Oso Pardo Field reservoir for nearly a decade without experiencing any water cut......across the Llanos basin heavy oil reservoirs tend to produce at materially lower production rates from vertical wells compared to light oil reservoirs like the C7, and decline at materially lower rates. Geopark - Horizontal Well Production for 2023 They drilled five wells - the average initial production rate for the three wells that results figures were released for were 2,750 bopd. Lets assume the other two came on at the same average production. During 2023, the 5 wells produced for an average of circa 6 months - by which time their average production was reported as 2,012 bopd (10,060 / 6). This is equivalent to an average decline rate of 29.4% over 6 months - compared with H&T's 6 month conservative estimated decline rate of 66.7% for CNZ-1. By the end of 2024, in light of AXL's initial learning experience drilling and operating horizontal wells, I suspect the average decline rate for AXL wells will likely fall somewhere in between, but closer to Geoparks's decline figures. Why? It would have been very challenging for GeoPark to add Field 2P reserves so early from the performance of the horizontal wells if the average decline rate was significantly greater than that achieved from producing vertical wells on the same field. However, as posted previously, the economics of each AXL horizontal well producing at an initial stabilised rate of 500 bopd net, and experiencing the same decline rate as Arrow's light oil producing Tapir Block wells, would still produce a very large step change improvement in cash flow generation at $75 Brent compared to the vertical wells AXL has drilled to date on the Tapir Block. It also worth bearing in mind that CNZ-1 came on 41% higher than AXL's modelling - and 65% higher than the modelled rate for CNZ-2....and that AXL's modelled production rate for CN Horizontal wells drilled in 2023 is circa 500 bopd gross by 2028. AIMHO/DYOR |
Posted at 19/6/2024 07:28 by ashkv And to omit that other than CN and RCN wells limited/offline while water disposal measures/new wells underway. The below 3600 boe/d production omits Canada Gas AND IS SOLELY CRUDE PRODUCTION!!!"Canada Update Due to exceptionally low natural gas prices in Canada, the East Pepper and West Pepper wells have been temporarily shut in. These wells will restart once favorable economic conditions return. Net gas shut in is approximately 250 BOE/d net." AXL Share Price -> 20.10p AXL Current Share Price vs 52 Week low of 17p on 15 Nov 23 -> 18.24% AXL Current Share Price vs 52 Week High of 27.75p on 21 March 24 -> -27.57% Brent -> $85.25 Market Cap (GBP) -> £57,458,734 GBPUSD -> 1.270 Market Cap (USD) -> $72,972,592 Production Average FY 2022 -> 1,345 Production Average Q1 2023 -> 1,635 Production Average Q2 2023 -> 2,169 Production Average Q3 2023 -> 2,518 Production Average Q4 2023 -> 2,335 Production Average FY 2023 -> 2,167 Production Average Q1 2024 -> 2,730 Production Levels Mid-June 2024 -> 3,600 Net Cash (1 June 24) -> $12,100,000 Inventory (Q1 2024 Results) -> $492,240 Debt -> $0 Enterprise Value(EV) (Market Cap + Debt - Cash) -> $60,872,592 EV/Barrel Mid-June 2024 Production -> $16,909 EV/Barrel Q1 2024 Production Avg -> $22,298 EV/Barrel (Auctus 3900 Boe/d Expected By Q4 2024) -> $15,608 Decommissioning liability (Q1 2024 Results RNS) -> $4,282,861 2P Reserves (Year End 2023) -> 11,847,000 [Upward addition to CPR expected in 2024] EV/2P -> $5.14 Shares Outstanding -> 285,864,348 Shares Outstanding (Diluted) -> 292,791,385 Net Cash Plus Inventory Component of AXL share price -> 3.47p |
Posted at 17/6/2024 10:46 by ashkv AXL Share Price -> 19.15pAXL Current Share Price vs 52 Week low of 17p on 15 Nov 23 -> 12.65% AXL Current Share Price vs 52 Week High of 27.75p on 21 March 24 -> -30.99% Brent -> $82.50 Market Cap (GBP) -> £54,743,023 GBPUSD -> 1.265 Market Cap (USD) -> $69,249,924 Production Average FY 2022 -> 1,345 Production Average Q1 2023 -> 1,635 Production Average Q2 2023 -> 2,169 Production Average Q3 2023 -> 2,518 Production Average Q4 2023 -> 2,335 Production Average FY 2023 -> 2,167 Production Average Q1 2024 -> 2,730 Production Levels End March 2024 -> 2,900 Net Cash (31 Mar 24) -> $11,606,343 Inventory (Q1 2024 Results) -> $492,240 Debt -> $0 Enterprise Value (Market Cap + Debt - Cash) -> $57,643,581 EV/Barrel Q1 2024 Production Average -> $21,115 EV/Barrel Production Levels (March End 2024) -> $19,877 EV/Barrel (Auctus 3900 Boe/d Expected By Q4 2024) -> $14,780 Decommissioning liability (Q1 2024 Results RNS) -> $4,282,861 2P Reserves (Year End 2023) -> 11,847,000 EV/2P -> $4.87 Shares Outstanding -> 285,864,348 Shares Outstanding (Diluted) -> 292,791,385 Net Cash Plus Inventory Component of AXL share price -> 3.35p |
Posted at 30/5/2024 11:19 by ashkv With the Auctus guided midyear CPR update figure that should come through shortly AXL EV/2p will equate to a lowly $3.75 per barrel including the expected 4.3mn barrel reserve addition at the present share price of 20p.With a successful horizontal well - hopefully this dead duck gets some life!!! Also 2 water disposal wells should hopefully lead to a nice uplift for production!!! Also news on Capella restart would be welcome :) Marshall Abbot "Management remains confident in the Arrow team to execute on the planned exploitation campaign pursuing our opportunity rich portfolio and getting shareholder value to the next level."" We are waiting patiently for this "next level" shareholder value!!! 30 May 24 AXL Q1 2024 Results RNS Share Price -AXL -> 20.00p AXL Current Share Price vs 52 Week low of 17p on 15 Nov 23 -> 17.65% AXL Current Share Price vs 52 Week High of 27.75p on 21 March 24 -> -27.93% Brent -> $83.20 Market Cap (GBP) -> £57,172,870 GBPUSD -> 1.27 Market Cap (USD) -> $72,609,544 Production Average Q1 2023 -> 1,635 Production Average Q2 2023 -> 2,169 Production Average Q3 2023 -> 2,518 Production Average Q4 2023 -> 2,335 Production Average Q1 2024 -> 2,730 Production Average FY 2023 -> 2,167 Production Levels End March 2024 -> 2,900 Production Average FY 2022 -> 1,345 Cash (31 Mar 24) -> $11,606,343 Inventory (Q1 2024 Results) -> $492,240 Debt -> $0 Enterprise Value (Market Cap + Debt - Cash) -> $61,003,201 EV/Barrel Q1 2024 Production Avg -> $22,345 EV/Barrel Average FY 2023 Production Avg -> $28,151 EV/Barrel Production Levels -> End March 2024 -> $21,036 EV/Barrel (Auctus 3900 Boe/d Expected By Q4 2024) -> $15,642 Decommissioning liability (Q1 2024 Results RNS) -> $4,282,861 2P Reserves (Year End 2023) -> 11,847,000 EV/2P -> $5.15 Shares Outstanding -> 285,864,348 Shares Outstanding (Diluted) -> 292,791,385 Net Cash Plus Inventory Component of AXL share price -> 3.33p |
Posted at 28/3/2024 08:03 by ashkv Superb increase in 1p/2p/3p levels - it is only going higher :)Would have appreciated YTD production, Q4 2023 production and guidance for 2024!!! In 2023 Q4 2022 Update was combined with FY 2022 Results in First Week May 23 (Please correct if I am not accurate). Production is lower than I expected - but AXL has updated that there are issues with use of CN Pad impacting production and water disposal. Horizontal wells could be a game changer. AXL had recently guided that hopes to attain 5,000 boe/d by mid-year 2024. Capella restarting in Q3 should help with the same. Even at 24-25p AXL remains waay too cheap given what is ahead!!! Share Price - AXL: 24.50p AXL Current Share Price vs 52 Week low of 16.3p on 31 March 23: 63.33% AXL Current Share Price vs 52 Week High of 27.75p on 21 March 24: -11.71% Brent: $85.50 Market Cap (GBP): £70,036,765 GBPUSD: 1.26 Market Cap (USD): $88,246,324 Production Average Q1 2023: 1,635 Production Average Q2 2023: 2,169 Production Average Q3 2023: 2,518 Production Average Q1-Q3 2023: 2,110 Production Levels -> End March 2024 2,900 Production Average FY 2022: 1,345 Cash (28 Mar 24 RNS): $12,000,000 Inventory (Q3 2023 Results): $885,517 Debt: $0 Enterprise Value (Market Cap + Debt - Cash): $76,246,324 EV/Barrel Q2 2023 Production Average: $35,153 EV/Barrel Q3 2023 Production Average: $30,281 EV/Barrel Average Q1-Q3 Production: $36,136 EV/Barrel Production Levels -> End March 2024: $26,292 EV/Barrel (5000 Boe/d Expected By H1 2024): $15,249 Decommissioning liability (Q3 2023 Results): $3,759,347 2P Reserves (Year End 2023): 11,800,000 EV/2P: $6.46 Shares Outstanding: 285,864,348 Shares Outstanding (Diluted): 288,639,348 |
Posted at 11/3/2024 11:55 by mount teide Since AXL started going sideways at circa 17p some 18 months ago, VLE(+147%), AET(+54%) and AXL(+47%) have been my best performing O&G investments.......in a sector, that despite very strong cash flow generation has been surprisingly challenging for investors.Since AXL's London Oct 2021 IPO (2.5 years ago)the comparative performances of the three companies has been: +671% VLE +292% AXL +175% AET My average investment holding period for these three investments is 1.73 years with an average return of +108% (AXL holding has generated the most £capital gain) The other O&G investments have largely gone sideways with the exception of JSE which is -62%, down to 34% below the average buy price, ADV a circa 70% crystallised loss, and SAVE which is +227% but currently suspended pending Government approval for a reverse takeover. AIMHO/DYOR |
Posted at 28/2/2024 23:11 by king suarez Yes, so the AXL netback of $60.62 @ $92.59 Brent compares to $48.97 for PAREX at $85.92 Brent.If you compare at the same Brent price of $92.59 it would be $60.62 for AXL and $55.64 for PAREX - not too dissimilar really - and PAREX is part gas, whereas the AXL figure quotes only the oil - the netbacks on AXL gas are poor at current gas price. They look to be operationally v similar metrics, as we might expect operating in the same area?! However, AXL currently have much cheap value add production growth as MT's posts have highlighted. |
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