Arrow Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[eaglehaslanded] 28/3/2024 19:58

RA and allA measly 200k traded in Toronto tonight so far and share price recovered to 40 cents. So not the big volume as it was in London today. HZ should be good for further share price upward

[royalalbert] 28/3/2024 19:34

50/50 my take on the RNS, sell on news brigade out today and should be a good floor for the horizontals. If you believe the story this afternoon was a good time to top up. Easter break for the markets now and it's April on the return and with that the drilling of the most important well in a long time.

[upwego] 28/3/2024 18:04

Not a great update, bring on the Horizontals!

[mount teide] 28/3/2024 15:20

2023 Year End Reserves Report reads very well and is in line with expectation.

Subject to ongoing drilling success at CN in the Ubaque, another mid year Reserves Report is likely when considering the size and thickness of the Ubaque in the Carrizalles Noroeste step out.

Been out most of the day, medically related - will post some thoughts on the Ops Update after I've had a chance to go through it in detail


Auctus Advisors Note - published today:

ARROW EXPLORATION CORP (AIM: AXL)

Reserves additions. Flow rate at Carrizales Noroeste likely to add further reserves

• YE23 2P reserves were estimated at 11.8 mmboe, including 0.7 mmboe for Canada and 4.6 mmboe non-core, leaving 6.5 mmboe for the company’s core Colombian assets.

This compares with 2.1 mmbbl at YE23 plus 3.9 mmbbl for Carrizales Norte reported in September for a total of 6 mmbbl. Adding back 0.6 mmbbl (net) produced at Tapir in 2023 suggests that Arrow has added 1.1 mmbbl at its core Colombian assets since the latest reserve reports (September 2023 for Carrizales Norte and YE23 for the other assets).

• The CN-5 exploration well that had encountered 45 feet of Ubaque pay with 25% porosity and 5 Darcy permeability at the Carrizales Noroeste prospect has now been put in production at a rate of 175 bbl/d (net) with 8% water cut.

Production is being restricted at the lowest ESP setting of 30Hz to evaluate the water cut and will be gradually increased. The flow rate is important as it confirms the producibility of this area of the field estimated to hold 3.35 mmbbl resources net to Arrow and could allow Arrow to book additional reserves.

• The CN-6 development well in the C7 formation has been put on stream at an oil rate of 110 bbl/d net to Arrow (33 deg API) with 71% water cut.

• The CN-7 well has encountered pay zones in the Carbonara C7, Gacheta and Ubaque, and should be on production in the next few weeks.

• The first horizonal well at Carrizales Norte continues to be expected to be drilled in April. This is a very important well.

• The impact on our valuation of the additional reserves is offset by assumptions of lower production and we re-iterate our target price of £0.60/sh.

Cash and production Arrow holds US$12 mm in cash (US$13 mm as at 15 February).

Total production is currently 2.9 mboe/d (3.2 mboe/d previously) as Arrow has experienced some minor disruptions caused by drilling operations and water disposal requirements.

Arrow is expecting regulatory approval to turn RCE-1 and CN-1 into water disposal wells to increase the water disposal capacity and increase production.

Valuation and cashflow We have reduced our production forecast for 1Q24 from 3.2 mboe/d to 2.9 mmboe/d. We have also factored additional downtime for future periods.

We now forecast ~4.3 mboe/d in 2024 and 5.5 mboe/d in 2025.

Booking 3.35 mmbbl net reserves at Carrizales Noroeste could add a further £0.08/sh, while success at Mateguafa Attic (3Q24) and Baquiano (April) is worth a total of £0.18 per share. Assuming US$85/bbl for Brent until YE25, we forecast that the company will hold >US$55 mm at YE25.

[dunns_river_falls] 28/3/2024 14:23

CN7 is sounding as good as CN5. Its only CN6 that is a little disappointing, and that will still pay for itself over time.

Hopefully the minor production disruption can be resolved quickly. It would have been good to know the impact of the disruption.

Bring on the horizontals!

In a way this is just a nice opportunity to potentially make use of the new isa allowance coming soon.

[eaglehaslanded] 28/3/2024 14:12

Before tax NPV-10 is $280.22 million ($23.66/boe) for 2P reserves.280 million / 286 shares = $0.97Go figure, some ppl don't understand CN5 to do higher production later?The oil from the CN-5 well has an API gravity of 13.6°. The ESP is being restricted at the lowest setting of 30Hz with a choke size of 48/128 to properly evaluate the water cut. Currently, the well is being produced at an average rate of 350 BOPD gross (175 BOPD net) with a water cut of 8%.The testing results indicate the well is capable of higher rates and the longer term flow rate will be determined in the first weeks of production. Gradual production ramp up is intended to prevent premature water breakthrough and adds to ultimate oil recovery.

[gregpeck7] 28/3/2024 14:07

Too much water imo

[nicosevos] 28/3/2024 13:57

March is always a bearish month, with liquidity drying up,
and traders crystallising losses, and 'Profits'imo....
gla
Edit, From April 8th, onwards and upwards.

[nicosevos] 28/3/2024 10:39

Guys,
We have the sell on Friday brigade, (yes I know it's Thursday)

.....the sell on news, traders...

Also, Capital Gains Tax sellers.

And a Friday RNS, which was, hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.......
gla

[11_percent] 28/3/2024 09:36

Not good......drop on the open, now in the Dead Cat Bounce rise.....lets see where it settles.....say 23p....nice round number.

[hierarch] 28/3/2024 09:35

Suprised there is no mention of the Mateguafa prospect - that was supposed to be drilled before Baquiano, anyone with lines to Joe want to query the status there as that is going to be a significant catalyst on success.

[jailbird] 28/3/2024 09:18

True, with recent presentation being so upbeat , a bit of a surprise The recent rosy outlook is still in place , but let's not get carried away, to continue to expect 100% success rate is a bit too much to expect is it not ?, as long as it moves along 3 steps forward and 1 step back , I can take that Are the reserves update what ppl expect here for now ?

[here and there] 28/3/2024 09:16

You are not the only one!

[che7win] 28/3/2024 08:56

Not wonderful update, seems like a different company in contrast to recent interviews.Nevertheless, just topped up.

[jailbird] 28/3/2024 08:32

May well get that gap filled mentioned yesterday at this rate I see Auctus re-iterated their 60p target Lower production target offset by increase in 1P etc reserves https://www.research-tree.com/companies/canada/oil-gas-e-ps/arrow-exploration-corp-/research/auctus-advisors/arrow-exploration-corp-aim-axl-reserves-additions-flow-rate-at-carrizales-noroeste-likely-to-a/72_5bb26a6b-a0c1-4bce-baa1-63ccdd5319d5/2b7acd1c-da7b-4888-ab1d-86737013a866

[highly geared] 28/3/2024 08:07

HAT, good summary.

Mine was;

- great reserves update
- disappointing early flow rates from the recent CN verticals.
- minor operational set back , particularly deferred OP well stimulations ( which adds to short term BOPD head winds.)

Investment case further enhanced, short term may be a bit bumpy.

[ashkv] 28/3/2024 08:05

Proved plus Probable plus Possible ("3P") reserves:

o Increased by 53% to 17.8 MMboe;

o Before tax NPV-10 is $445.02 million ($24.98/boe) for 3P reserves.

[ashkv] 28/3/2024 08:03

Superb increase in 1p/2p/3p levels - it is only going higher :)

Would have appreciated YTD production, Q4 2023 production and guidance for 2024!!!

In 2023 Q4 2022 Update was combined with FY 2022 Results in First Week May 23 (Please correct if I am not accurate).

Production is lower than I expected - but AXL has updated that there are issues with use of CN Pad impacting production and water disposal.

Horizontal wells could be a game changer. AXL had recently guided that hopes to attain 5,000 boe/d by mid-year 2024. Capella restarting in Q3 should help with the same.

Even at 24-25p AXL remains waay too cheap given what is ahead!!!



Share Price - AXL: 24.50p
AXL Current Share Price vs 52 Week low of 16.3p on 31 March 23: 63.33%
AXL Current Share Price vs 52 Week High of 27.75p on 21 March 24: -11.71%
Brent: $85.50
Market Cap (GBP): £70,036,765
GBPUSD: 1.26
Market Cap (USD): $88,246,324
Production Average Q1 2023: 1,635
Production Average Q2 2023: 2,169
Production Average Q3 2023: 2,518
Production Average Q1-Q3 2023: 2,110
Production Levels -> End March 2024 2,900
Production Average FY 2022: 1,345
Cash (28 Mar 24 RNS): $12,000,000
Inventory (Q3 2023 Results): $885,517
Debt: $0
Enterprise Value (Market Cap + Debt - Cash): $76,246,324
EV/Barrel Q2 2023 Production Average: $35,153
EV/Barrel Q3 2023 Production Average: $30,281
EV/Barrel Average Q1-Q3 Production: $36,136
EV/Barrel Production Levels -> End March 2024: $26,292
EV/Barrel (5000 Boe/d Expected By H1 2024): $15,249
Decommissioning liability (Q3 2023 Results): $3,759,347
2P Reserves (Year End 2023): 11,800,000
EV/2P: $6.46
Shares Outstanding: 285,864,348
Shares Outstanding (Diluted): 288,639,348

[here and there] 28/3/2024 07:59

So , a lot to absorb this morning.

Reserve replacement and growth is excellent, NPV grows apace. This is key for when they sell the company. Proved and producing reserves generates so much value.

Some production hiccups by the looks of things. Looks like some production is shut in at CN whilst they are drilling further wells. There is a pretty high water cut on that C-7 well, CN-6, but, it is early days so see how it goes. Dealing with the water goes hand in hand with the Tapir Block. Also, looks like some water disposal issues at RCE. They have talked about a water disposal well in the past or converting one of the old wells into a water disposal well...let's see what ensues.

CN-8 has nailed three oil zones and will go on production v soon.

All in all the vertical wells are slowly increasing production over time with moment s where it drops back as they deal with operational issues. Bread and butter. The horizontals will be the kicker to step changes in production. They continue to discover more and more oil, well by well, which just adds value and running room. Roll on the horizontals.

[eaglehaslanded] 28/3/2024 07:58

https://ceo.ca/@newsfile/arrow-exploration-corp-2023-year-end-reserves-andArrow Exploration Corp. 2023 Year-End Reserves and Operations UpdateBEFORE TAX NPV-10 VALUES INCREASED 133 % FOR 1P AND 120 % FOR 2P RESERVES,1P AND 2P RESERVE REPLACEMENT RATIO WAS 340 % AND 621 % RESPECTIVELY

[timjames5784] 28/3/2024 07:51

I did read that wording about temporary reduction but it’s extremely uninformative isn’t it. We haven’t been told what the negative impact was or what total production will be once the issues are resolved. Could be 3600 or could be 3000. I tend to work on the assumption that if information is kept quiet it is more likely to be bad than good

[the_gold_mine] 28/3/2024 07:47

Reserves upgrade very positive. CN-5 and CN-6 look to have underperformed against the expected type curve, however are still producing wells with payout times < 1 year I'd imagine. Both wells also appear to be profitable, albeit not astronomically so like some of the other wells.All eyes are on the results of horizontal CN wells which for me will be key for rapid and significant share price appreciation this year.

[jailbird] 28/3/2024 07:46

Tim,"Production (now 2900) seems permanently stuck at or just below 3000"Did you not read this a temporary drop and will be resolved quickly , so expect this to be above 3k again very soon

[timjames5784] 28/3/2024 07:42

Big fan of this company but I am really starting to wonder about decline rates. Production (now 2900) seems permanently stuck at or just below 3000. We are drilling and drilling and drilling and each drill ostensibly adds bopd, yet the total figure stays the same. Cash stays the same also. If you look at each drill result it looks like massive growth but if you look at total bopd and cash we are just in steady state, despite drilling like mad