Arrow Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[buffythebuffoon] 03/4/2024 11:32

P.S. I once spent one hour at a business conference with a sub surface engineer. He had been roped in to man the company stand and was visibly bored. He was desperate to get away from potential investors asking stupid questions about drilling for hydrocarbons. All but ten minutes was spent discussing drilling fluids and mud weighting. I still have his business card somewhere….

I’ve since learnt that everything he told me was spot on. One thing I’ll never forget was how he had to account for the drilling fluid mix at results meetings which is far more complex than most will realise. That and the fact that whether the water drive is via a natural aquifer or water flood eventually water will be produced. Having a high water cut makes you address the issue earlier. I didn’t really get what he was saying at the time but put on my ‘interested217; face anyway.

Buffy

[dunns_river_falls] 03/4/2024 11:29

It will all feel a bit more positive once that shut in production gets back on stream. Add in a successful hz well and it might end up being a decent qtr here.

[buffythebuffoon] 03/4/2024 11:18

Ah, the love in has ended as it was always going to at some point.

MT highlighted how the company failed miserably to drill the wells they had declared in 2022-3 and he called them out on it. That’s perfectly reasonable, but he didn’t throw the baby out with the bathwater.

Would you rather he screamed ‘Don’t panic Mr Mainwaring, don’t panic!’

Operations are complex and it must be a right pain to have to deal with needy bulletin board posters wanting weekly, even daily updates. Let the man do the job. He’s earnt that right.

I have long experience of high water cuts. The reservoir is there; horizontals enable you to choose a safe place to get the hydrocarbons into the well bore. If the HZ wells aren’t a roaring success I’ll be very very surprised.

We all have a right to call out any outright lies, but omitting to share information is not a heinous crime.

Buffy

[jailbird] 03/4/2024 11:14

I had feeling you were selling since you have been quiet recently But that's fine as one is allowed to change their opinion if the news changes or fails to deliver expectations There will always be risks but over a long term view I still expect production to near double end of this year , I am going to be conservative and pencil in 5k+ which will justify a higher price than today

[rockyride] 03/4/2024 10:52

Since last weeks RNS I have reduced by 50% to lock some profit in and to lower my somewhat over exposure in Arrow.In my opinion I saw some very concerning disconnects between Marshalls media videos this year and the actual detail in the RNS.Prior to there RNS I saw success of the HZ drilling program to be the icing on the cake to a very successful vertical drilling company. I now see the HZ wells to be more of cake ingredients than icing.Without successful HZ wells is now see Arrow as a jumping up and down on the spot (probably with a small intermittent jog forward) company and not the company MA has been portraying. I also think that MA is too confident in making out that just because hes been successful with HZ wells before that the new ones in Columbia are a done deal.On Friday I had a very Frank 6 email exchange with MA and he said he'd call me but as of today hes not yet called.He knows that I had a long detailed conversation with the NOMAD on Thursday questioning MAs videos vs RNS facts. They said they will investigate my complaint with the company and they also asked me to document my views and send a complaint to AIM regulation which I have now done. I've completely analysed every media video this year with RNS detail and concisely listed the areas which I perceive to be of disconnect.I genuinely feel misled by Marshall and I think he sees being listed on AIM as a free for all. He regularly say AIM have been very kind to him since listing and thats probably because in the past they have left him alone and let him say what he says.I'll be very interested to see if he continues with his loose tongue in future videos!As you all know, i have always considered MA to be liberal with the truth (Chat GPT definition:- "Being liberal with the truth" typically means someone is prone to exaggeration or bending the truth to suit their narrative or agenda, often implying that they're not entirely honest or trustworthy in their communications.) but i have always stuck with what he's said due to my perceived success of the drill bit.In summary, i see far more dependence of the success of the company being down to HZ successes. And having not used a rig or drilling team in Columbia to do this before I have decided to adjust my holding accordingly.

[henley2] 03/4/2024 09:55

That’s what happens when you conduct your investor relations program via a single contributor on a bulletin board. Completely pathetic.
I have raised this issue before.
The FD needs to instigate a proper investor relations program with all investors, not just answering questions on an ad hoc basis from one person.
The CEO made no mention of “temporary production issues” at the recent Proactive meeting and didn’t stick around for questions afterwards.
Perhaps he’ll be a bit less smug at the next meeting.

[here and there] 03/4/2024 09:45

'Both RCE and CN fields are very busy right now. CN-7 is in the completion phase, and the rig moves to CN-8 afterwards. We will then be converting a well on the CN pad into a water injector. At the RCE pad we are moving oil and water tanks, VSDs, flow lines, etc, in order to set up the three surface pumps for the RCE-1 conversion into a water disposal well.'

Some production locked in whilst the above adjustments are made, once sorted the production comes back on line. As usual the team are managing the reservoir, production and water disposal as efficiently as possible. I do wish they had come out and explained the above in an interview post the RNS. It would have helped.

Edale chipping out a few on the 22nd March doesn't help sentiment but, I gather, they are still strong supporters and believers. Even the big boys need to top slice!

Well result news soon,alongside the horizontal well spudding and CN-8 spudding. I suspect they will provide some colour on the water issues in the next RNS

[11_percent] 03/4/2024 08:59

AXL need to get their act together - give a clear well by well performance update, keep market updated as to issues etc.

=================

Its all about water cut.....which from Joes reply they are trying to fix.

They bring on a well and if has a high water they choke back or reduce the downhole electric pump speed to give them a flow rate and water cut that they can handle.

They are shortly going to have Water Injection Wells at both RCE and CN.....so will be able to ramp the downhole pumps up to give a greater flow......separate the oil/water and.......inject the water downhole.....and get more oil.

At the moment we are try to control the total water produced by cutting back on flow rate from the well.

[11_percent] 03/4/2024 08:47

Gap not closed.

High on Monday 19th Feb = 20.00
Low today = 20.25


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[ashkv] 03/4/2024 08:38

Tough being an E&P investor on AIM - not losing capital with Brent near $90 appears to be outperforming....

AXL need to get their act together - give a clear well by well performance update, keep market updated as to issues etc.

Running to stand still!!!

This has been a disappointing investment that is just about breakeven post a year of holding :(

[jailbird] 03/4/2024 08:22

Was that gap filled ? Mentioned earlier

[dunns_river_falls] 03/4/2024 08:19

Some keen sellers this morning! I wasnt expecting to see 20p again quite so soon!

[jailbird] 03/4/2024 08:16

I did always , let's not get ahead of ourselves But progress intact for me , expect one or two hiccups on the wayThe success of first horizontal well is quite critical to sentiment

[eaglehaslanded] 02/4/2024 18:41

Some large trades in Toronto now

[pastybap] 02/4/2024 18:39

On 22nd March when price was around 26p. Smart traders!

[jailbird] 02/4/2024 18:17

A small reduction by Edale Capital LLP..by 250k

[eaglehaslanded] 02/4/2024 15:59

Marshall's comment is correct. We do see declines due to water cut increases. Once the wells get to a higher water cut they do seem to flatten out and stabilize. We believe the horizontal wells will assist with this process and still have higher oil production even with high water cuts. The HZ wells are still on track. We hope to have the first one on production in May. Both RCE and CN fields are very busy right now. CN-7 is in the completion phase, and the rig moves to CN-8 afterwards. We will then be converting a well on the CN pad into a water injector. At the RCE pad we are moving oil and water tanks, VSDs, flow lines, etc, in order to set up the three surface pumps for the RCE-1 conversion into a water disposal well. Hope that helps. ThanksJoe

[eaglehaslanded] 02/4/2024 15:56

Marshall and I are very familiar with polymer floods from a previous venture we were involved in. At Tapir we are working with a natural water drive which we believe is doing a very good job of sweeping the oil. We believe the horizontal wells are what is required for maximum economic recovery at Carrizales Norte. Thanks for your interest. JoeJoe

[eaglehaslanded] 02/4/2024 14:00

I remembered incorrectly, from Joe before:'This is RCS-1. It is very flat since coming off initial flush production.Every well has been very different. For your model I think it would be conservative to use 20% decline for the first year and 12% after that.'He also wrote that RCE-4 had an incline

[eaglehaslanded] 02/4/2024 13:18

MT, MA talked about 3% a month and Joe told me before 17% first year, so it will be interesting to see what is the real number.

[mount teide] 02/4/2024 13:04

EHL - thanks.

A linear 2.5% a month(30% annual) decline rate is consistent with the first year C7 production decline data in the latest presentation for new vertical wells drilled on Arrow's llanos Basin asset.

As mentioned in a recent post, I recall Marshall previously suggesting in an interview that the average annual production decline rate in Colombia for a portfolio of oil fields ranging between new to very mature is around 15%. This is consistent with 13-15% decline rate i've seen mentioned by other producers/operators across the basin - for a mix of light and heavy crudes.

[eaglehaslanded] 02/4/2024 12:44

Good one MT, I have asked Joe this:Hi Joe Could you elaborate on the decline? Marshall mentioned up to 3% a month, is it really that much? I am concerned that total production has fallen back to 2900 boed, is that due to decline or something else?Have the HZ wells been delayed somewhat?Happy Easter to you all.

[mount teide] 02/4/2024 12:33

Production - Some thoughts to potentially explain the snapshot 300 boe/d 'drop' in production from 31/12/2023 and that on 28/3/2024 - despite drilling 3 wells during the quarter:

Colombian Production:
AVERAGE boe/d for the quarter from Quarterly Results
1,222 boe/d - Q1/23
1,779 boe/d - Q2/23
2,178 boe/d - Q3/23

ESTIMATED boe/d at END of subsequent quarters
2,801 boe/d - End Q4/23 using 3,200 boe/d yr end figure given by company

2,639 boe/d - Late March/24 using 50%(Canadian) and 15%(Colombian) Annual decline rates and, assuming ZERO contribution from CN due to suspension to facilitate movement of rig across CN pad and some well work-over operations.

2,901 boe/d - Late March/24 production INCLUDING Canadian production - assuming zero contribution from CN wells drilled in Q1/24,

2,900 boe/d - ACTUAL company guidance given late March 24

3,424 boe/d - ESTIMATED boe/d once Q1/2024 CN wells are back on production.

Additional Production currently suspended:
+ 300 boe/d - Oso Pardo 2&3 Wells - expected to resume Q2-Q3/24
+ 250 boe/d - Capella

ps: The breakdown of production by field in the Q1/24 Results should be able to give shareholders/market a good steer as to how much production was temporarily suspended/affected by well work-overs when a snapshot of current production was taken in late March 2024, and data with which to calculate a reasonable estimation of the current average decline rate for each field.

For this shareholder, it was disappointing that the management failed to provide some guidance as to the amount of production suspended/affected when the snapshot was taken for the 28th March 2024 update.

AIMHO/DYOR

[mount teide] 02/4/2024 10:32

Colombia - 2023 Onshore Drilling Activity falls off a cliff:

'Total wells drilled reduced more than 80% year-on-year, while exploratory wells reduced more than 60% during the same timeframe.'....S&;P Global

Impact of Tax Reform on Upstream Sector:

'The reform came into effect in January 2023. Among the industry players, expectations were that the new fiscal model, added to a green political agenda which wind down oil exploration, would reduce revenue from current and new projects.

As we pointed out at the end of 2022 in a special report the reduced returns could lead to operators turning their investments to neighbouring Latin America countries, affecting Colombia hydrocarbon production in the near term.'.....S&P Global

The collapse in onshore drilling in 2023 has shown this to be the case - despite Colombia's Constitutional Court subsequently dropping a paragraph of the tax reform that prohibited extractive companies from deducting royalties paid to the government from their taxable income - and has led to a material rise in drilling rig availability, a fall in day rates and the cost of oil field equipment and services for operators like Arrow and Parex, who elected to significantly expand their production development and exploration drilling activities during 2023/24.