Arrow Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[gregpeck7] 28/3/2024 07:31

Quite a lot of water

[wardrv] 28/3/2024 07:26

Some juicy bits in this RNS"Furthermore, the imminent drilling of the Carrizales Norte horizontal wells into the thick Ubaque reservoir, if successful, is expected to result in a step change in production and lead to booking of substantial additional reserves."

[des12345] 28/3/2024 07:26

Reserves update released this morning

[jailbird] 27/3/2024 21:50

Here is another one Oil prices have path to $100/barrel on Russia cuts, but US likely to stand ... https://m.uk.investing.com/news/commodities-news/oil-prices-have-path-to-100barrel-on-russia-cuts-but-us-likely-to-stand-in-way-3405457?ampMode=1

[eaglehaslanded] 27/3/2024 12:44

CFO Joe has told me they might do dividends at 8000-10000 boed. CEO has said they will strongly think about it at 10000 boed.

[pjackson2] 27/3/2024 12:00

Just had a top up. Marshals comments this month seem very bullish.
Can anyone tell me:Has marshal ever hinted towards dividend payments as income increases. With tax situation in Columbia it’s prob best ploughing it back in rather than divi payments.
Views anyone?
Thanks in advance.

[highly geared] 27/3/2024 11:56

Tax/CGT year end selling?

[mrscruff] 27/3/2024 11:12

@MT using the sam principles I can diversify you sector allocation if you look to ALPH in the finance sector. They have to pro-actively hide their embarrassing massive cash generation as it makes their operational growth look pedestrian. Thanks again for the list of stocks. I had started buying SQZ again with a crazy prediction that Labour will not be in power and actually they earn plenty of cash to go around.

I'll be back into JSE when it trades again.

[taurusthebear] 27/3/2024 10:14

The big sell signal for me was when peeps started predicting 30p by Easter. It never changes! But I didn't sell because I only micro-manage stocks when I am looking for my buy price. I don't expect to sell any AXL below 50p.

[mount teide] 27/3/2024 09:19

M3 - In addition to JSE and AXL, still hold long term seven figure positions in these O&G small caps: TXP (sold half (1.2m) the holding in 2022 at an average price of 80p), PTAL, SAVE and AET. Held these investments for a combined average of nearly 5.0 years.

Overall, pleased with the capital growth performance of the O&G stocks I've held, as it's been achieved against the backdrop of an extremely challenging period for the O&G sector, as evidenced by the -44.7% overall 5 Year return performance of the AIM O&G Sector.

My current equity investment strategy is based on the premise that the extreme 'value' high cash flow generating market fundamentals of the highly cyclical Shipping(Dry Bulk and Oil Product Tanker) and O&G sectors, are now well positioned to deliver a greatly improved capital growth performance over the next 3-5 years........as a consequence, the overwhelming majority(circa 90%+) of my equity investments are now in these two sectors.

AIMHO/DYOR

[che7win] 27/3/2024 09:06

Well, AXL comes back onto my buy list at these or lower prices. I can go back to accumulate mode.

[moonshot3] 26/3/2024 22:51

ADV, SOUC didn't turn out too well!JSE can hopefully recover in time. AXL looking good, if horizontals perform! Hopefully MT, you can unearth another little gem!PS Wish I'd gone in for VLE but too late now!

[mount teide] 26/3/2024 21:01

TGM - Lol! Although nearly three years ago that highly speculative holding in ADV still makes me shake my head, smile and laugh whenever I think about it - as it was a binary punt(albeit, with a very high chance of success according to the CP's Report) and therefore, completely counter to my usual low risk, value investing approach.

Can say with complete confidence ADV is my last red or black bet on the AIM roulette wheel!

As with equity investing I like the odds tipped in my favour - wind and tide behind me. So, invariably stick to boring value investments in highly cyclical long term markets, that I know, understand and have long senior management experience of - shipping, ports and the commodities that are carried by or go through them.

With small cap oilers, found most of my best investments have come from placing an extremely high investment case weighting on the previous track record of the CEO - rather than the quality of the assets, or my very modest technical knowledge of the industry!

MA's 8 out 8 track record of buying cheap, struggling small cap O&G companies with decent assets and rapidly growing them into significantly greater value businesses, had me reaching for my investment cash faster than a Whitehall Civil Servant running for a free bar at a Number 10 Covid lockdown party!

AIMHO/DYOR

[eaglehaslanded] 26/3/2024 19:35

It also said it could sell its Arrow Exploration Corp stake - valued at around $20 million - and enter into a short-term credit facility if further cash is needed. https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/canacol-investors-fear-worst-as-gas-producer-s-cash-woes-spark-major-selloff-1.2051852.amp.html

[the_gold_mine] 26/3/2024 16:42

I hope its another AXL and not an ADV Mount T...

[tag57] 26/3/2024 14:21

HAT, this is MT’s thread so up to him to moderate this thread. Also this is thread is a lot better than a hell of a lot of others on Advrn.
Plus, like others I have MT to thank for pointing out various companies including AXL, SBLK.

[mount teide] 26/3/2024 13:59

Last post here on this small cap O&G sector 'outperformers' discussion.

patsybap/be13 - Thanks

Sure I would be far from alone in appreciating any of you reading this, letting us know via my blog, if you hold any small cap second phase O&G companies that could be of interest for us to research.

I'm in the early stages of researching a relatively new O&G sector small cap to list on the AIM market - as ever, if it leads to an investment will post the details and investment case research behind the decision.

[pastybap] 26/3/2024 13:07

That is exactly how I came across AXL too. Normally I agree with HAT about not mentioning other shares on BBs, but I am quite happy for MT to do so!

[blueeyes13] 26/3/2024 13:00

To be fair, MT brought AXL to my attention on the JSE board i think it was some time ago. I've since become a large AXL shareholder (for me) and thank him sincerely for the heads up. The off topic is ok in my view when it's a well thought out and considered post which could be of interest to shareholders on the particular board it's posted on.

[here and there] 26/3/2024 12:55

Call it what you like, let's stick to AXL and you can ramp/promote other stocks on your own chat thread. Not complicated.

[mount teide] 26/3/2024 12:48

HAT - like AXL, VLE does not need any ramping! Their capital gain performances over the last 2-3 years in a sector where sentiment has been extremely challenging, even though it has reported record cash flow generation, speaks for themselves.

[pastybap] 26/3/2024 10:58

I was very close to taking a large position in $VLE a couple of years back when looking for a home for my RRE windfall. I couldnt bring myself to invest in a non-UK stock though (stick to what you know etc etc) Kicking myself, but those funds are now here instead. Other than AXL, there is nothing listed in the UK that attracts me anymore, so i will have to look further afield.

[mount teide] 26/3/2024 09:58

O/T - Valeura Energy (VLE) - first mentioned as a new investment on my MTB Blog in early 2023, and subsequently here as the investment case continued to strengthen, the shares have since returned 190%, and look well set to deliver further strong capital growth in 2024, following the announcement today of an outstanding set of 2023 Results and forward outlook.

Well worth running a slide rule over.

AIMHO/DYOR


Valeura Energy - Record Results in 2023 from First Year of Thailand Operations -
Singapore, March 26, 2024:

Valeura Energy reports its financial and operating results for the three month period and year ended December 31, 2023:

2023 Highlights

* Closed the Mubadala Acquisition for cash consideration of US$10.4 million, adding three producing offshore Gulf of Thailand fields to the Valeura portfolio;

* Four producing fields yielded average oil production of 20,440 bbls/d;

* Restarted production from the Wassana field and drilled appraisal wells which confirmed the presence of oil deeper than previously proven, leading to a potential re-development of the field and extension of field life beyond 2030;

* Drilling activity extended the economic life of all fields in the Company’s Thailand portfolio;

* Replaced more than double the volume of oil produced by all fields in 2023 – 219% through proved (1P) and proved plus probable (2P) reserves additions (reserves replacement ratio);

* Generated adjusted cash flow from operations of US$152 million;

* Fully paid off debt and had accumulated cash of US$151 million as of December 31, 2023;

* Further strengthened the balance sheet by reassessing and reducing decommissioning obligation on the balance sheet by 30% to US$129 million

* Increased 2P net present value (NPV) before tax to US$616 million and US$429 million after tax; and

* Considering year end 2023 cash position, increased 2P net asset value (NAV) after tax to US$579 million, equating to C$7.56 per share.


Sean Guest, President and CEO commented:

' “I am very pleased to present our first full year financial results which reflect the true scale of our now-transformed business. Through the Gulf of Thailand acquisitions we completed in 2022 and 2023 and the hard work our team has performed throughout the year, Valeura has become a strongly cash flow generating business, with assets that are exceeding expectations on all fronts.

Importantly, we have also created a clean and resilient balance sheet. The cash flow capacity of our assets has allowed us to rapidly pay off all debt and exit the year with US$151 million in cash. We have also seen our decommissioning obligations drop to US$129 million, a 30% reduction from the total we reported just after closing the Mubadala Acquisition. Valeura’s financial position is exceptional and positions us very well for further growth.

Drilling activity and studies performed in 2023 resulted in our independent third-party reserves evaluator significantly increasing reserves volumes and value. The life of all fields was extended on the back of a reserves replacement ratio of 219%. Additionally, appraisal of the Wassana field has proven more oil than previously reported which will underpin a 2024 decision on field expansion. This increase in 2P reserves value, when coupled with our cash, generates a net asset value of over C$7/share.

The complementary nature of our assets is becoming increasingly apparent as we completed the process to merge the companies into a single organisation. We reduced unit operating costs in 2023 and the team are enthusiastically seeking further synergies in cost optimisation and tax efficiency as we look to 2024.

We intend to continue to aggressively pursue value through our growth-oriented strategy, which continues to include aspirations to growth both organically and inorganically by way of mergers and acquisitions opportunities, which we continue to see in our core Southeast Asia region.

We continue to drive safety and sustainability as a priority throughout our operations and will publish our inaugural sustainability report in the near term to articulate key performance metrics for the business in 2023. Through the sustainability report we aspire to be transparent about our performance and to create a baseline from which to measure improvement over time, so as to best assure the ongoing sustainability of our business.” '