Ariana Resources Share Discussion Threads

[jaf1948] 08/12/2020 18:12

Huncher,

I have been doing so for over 50 years but you may well be right.

I still don't understand your comment however.

[huncher] 08/12/2020 18:10

JAF - With respect should you be investing.

[lottsgold] 08/12/2020 17:55

Some big sales showing this evening, hopefully the end game for the seller/sellers!

[charles clore] 08/12/2020 17:40

I would feel slightly uncomfortable if the price moved any lower and if that happened would be forced to buy more. The price has fallen below the 50 day MA and is finding it hard to rise above it. Fortunately that is starting to flatten out which means the selling ferocity has abated.

[jaf1948] 08/12/2020 16:31

Huncher,

Maybe I'm just thick but I don't understand your comment.

[huncher] 08/12/2020 15:44

Now we know why it opened at 5.2. MM inside info - but I guess you have to play by the house rules i.e. none.

[scorscribler] 08/12/2020 15:41

I did exactly that last week slightly higher!I agree with Tem in that I can't see it going any lower.

[risa5] 08/12/2020 15:39

Ariana announces increase in JORC resources at Magellan Project

[1candc] 08/12/2020 15:09

Kirbs4 - get stuck in! You know you want to...

[kirbs4] 08/12/2020 14:47

This damn game gets you doesn't it! This is now low enough to seriously consider moving some of the healthy recent profits from elsewhere back across!! If I had any faith it would all be cleared up and delivered in the next few weeks it would be a no brainer too!

[shortarm] 08/12/2020 13:11

And a nice asset purchase :-D

[thanksamillion] 08/12/2020 13:10

Ignoring the price action, that is for short termers.

Rather, I am looking forword to ...

"Ariana shareholder approval to be sought for the Transaction at a General Meeting, for which a Circular is expected to be sent to Shareholders during the week commencing 7 December. "

and over the next 12 months the results of Zack and the team's souped up drilling programme.

[gamesplayer] 08/12/2020 13:01

Hopefully that's the last of the big selling....

[bigglesbingham] 08/12/2020 12:59

2.5m sale? Yesterday 16.26

[1candc] 08/12/2020 10:18

Good input rumpus1, and thanks for sharing the Hot Stocks article

[bigglesbingham] 08/12/2020 10:17

Possibly pal I don't know enough but do know AAU extremely optimistic as are CHF. Hope both do well.

[2vdm] 08/12/2020 10:13

Thanks Rumpus - good posts.

[rumpus1] 08/12/2020 10:02

Ariana Resources* (LSE:AAU)  has announced the completion of conditional agreements on its joint venture and additional resources estimated for the Magellan project. The latter is the small copper gold play in Cyprus and that does not float our boat but the former is massive news, though not unexpected.

The joint venture is the partial sale of asset interests (26.5% and 76.5% of the Salinbas project and ‘satellite projects’) for $37.75 million, with Ariana retaining 23.5% interests and  with $8 million to be committed by new partner, the Turkish giant Özaltin, to fund a Feasibility Study, EIA and additional permitting on Salinbas.

Özaltin is a privately-owned conglomerate buying into the projects and which has been responsible for several large-scale government-funded projects in Turkey in recent years. The noted conditions include regulatory approvals in Turkey and Ariana shareholder approval, but both should be a formality.

Özaltin says that it is “keen to see the Tavsan Mine developed as the second operation within the JV, while we collectively work towards bringing the Salinbas Project through feasibility and into development”. That is to add to a jv which remains on track to produce c.18,000 oz (gross to the JV) of gold for the year, at an average operating cost in the region of US$580 per ounce. Ariana noted today that exploration at its first mine Kiziltepe has continued to demonstrate the opportunities to expand the resource and to identify new mining areas. In other words it is again, extending the life of mine

It reckons that on top of that Salinbas  has the potential to producing at a rate of 50,000 oz per annum over a 10-year life of mine. So that should mean that from Tavsan and the existing Kiziltepe mine Ariana will within two years be producing 14,000 oz net and so even at $1600 gold that is worth $14 million in free cashflow per annum to Ariana.  Salinbas, which will be debt funded, will add another 12,000 oz pa net to Ariana – So plausibly within four years Ariana will be chucking off $25 million free cashflow per annum, even at $1600 gold. At $1800 that would be $30 million plus.

Shares in Ariana are now 5.325p, capitalising the company at £57 million – currently approx. $76.5 million.  There is exploration upside with the jv partners effectively reimbursing Ariana very generously for anything it discovers.

The net cash post deal will be more than 50% of the current market cap. The EV is thus c 2.5 times free cashflow from the first two mines and 1.5 times when Salinbas kicks in.  With a special dividend due next year, amounting to approximately 50% of net proceeds, after costs and taxation, the shares look cheap whichever way one views it. As such, we currently continue to see the clear potential for a 7.5p+ share price here and, at up to 5.75p, our stance is BUY.

[rumpus1] 08/12/2020 09:58

I understand that people are frustrated by the slow down in momentum but this is ridiculous. The gold price has come off $200 since the peak in August and the legal horse trading has taken time and more than we would have liked but everything is pointing in the right direction. The money we are getting from our divestment has gone from $30m to $35m with extra cash from Proccea and now to $37m with the divestment of the satellite pits into the JV. If the dividend is $12m that still leaves us with $25m plus all the cash that the mine has been chucking off over the summer. We are probably going to be sitting on $30-35m in cash post divi. I trust Kerim for his proven ability to get things done, calm intelligence and his constant over-delivering but these things always take time.

Interest in AAU will come back but most of the hot money is currently out of gold as a lot of the fear factor has gone (IMHO mistakenly). I think most of us are in here as LT holders and not day traders but I'd rather be slow and feel comfortable with the risk than be up and down all over the shop. Incidentally, there's another buy post on Hot Stock Rockets this morning - one of TW's sites.

[soulsauce] 08/12/2020 09:20

bigglesbingham thanks for the Cyprus stuff. May be AAU are ahead in Cyprus with having a resource but I think CHF have the better ground with regard to saturations of copper.

[dixi] 08/12/2020 08:58

HaHa, they doing viewings :-)

[dixi] 08/12/2020 08:47

Yes, and I think the longest one was around the 1p era of dilution. But I want to be filthy rich and buy my own planet before I'm too old ;-)

[spacegazer] 08/12/2020 08:45

It does seem ludicrous that AYM price where it is, and we have everything we have, a producer, 35m smackeroo's heading our way....foothold in Cyprus, and we are about 3p behind them in share price stakes......its a funny old geme isn't it???