Aoi (Regs) Share Discussion Threads

[eipgam] 15/4/2013 09:47

Interim well results from East Africa an incremental positive; NAV remains unchanged for now
DAVY VIEW

Tullow has reported indications of hydrocarbons in unconsolidated sands with the wildcat Sabisa-1 well in Ethiopia. The well will now be side-tracked to complete logging and analysis. At the Ngamia-1 exploration well in Kenya, a constrained well test produced 281 bopd from the Lower Lokhone sandstones using artificial lift. A further five shallower intervals will now be flow-tested. We view the results from East Africa as an incremental positive in that the Sabisa-1 well demonstrates potential for a working petroleum system in a previous undrilled basin while the Lower Lokhone sands at Ngamia may, contrary to earlier diagnosis, prove commercial. Given the interim nature of the results, we are leaving our risk-weighted group valuation of 1453p per share unchanged for now.
Sabisa-1 demonstrates potential for working petroleum system

The Sabisa-1 well was drilled in the frontier South Omo basin, which is part of the East African Rift system. The well was testing a prospect in a delta depositional setting close to a basin-bounding fault. The high risk exploration well reported indications of hydrocarbons beneath a thick, unstable clay section. Indications of rich gas were registered but this does not preclude an oil discovery at this location (the heaviest hydrocarbon molecule that equipment can and did measure is C4). The Pliocene sands from which hydrocarbon shows were reported are unconsolidated in nature. This can be positive for the reservoir quality in terms of porosity and permeability. The well is now being side-tracked to gather a more comprehensive set of logs for analysis. This operation is expected to complete in late May. While interim results do not suggest a discovery of the scale of last year's Ngamia discovery in Kenya, it is a significant result in the context of a basin that is previously undrilled and therefore without guiding calibration data for seismic interpretation.
Lower Lokhone sands at Ngamia may be commercial

Tullow, the operator of Ngamia-1, had previously assigned zero net pay or commerciality to the Lower Lokhone oil-bearing reservoir sands. A flow-test on an interval in these sands produced light oil at a rate of 281 bopd with the aid of a pump, meaning earlier estimates for contingent resources at Ngamia-1 could be revised upwards. The flow test was constrained at surface with Ngamia-1 drilled as an exploration, rather than development or production, well. Future wells in the Lower Lokhone can be optimised to improve production rates from the oil-bearing zones in this formation.

Tullow and its partners will now flow test five intervals in the Upper Lokhone formation, which proved productive at the Twiga South-1 well in the same Lokichar basin.

The drilling rig from Paipai-1 is being mobilised to the Etuko prospect in the Lokichar basin in Kenya. A well on Etuko is due to spud on schedule in the first half of May.

[cashandcard] 15/4/2013 09:44

Well, I remember thinking to myself, the Sabisa location on previous presentations looked a bit off structure. Not only will they be able to have another go here to drill a stable hole - but also get some serious gross/net-pay if the sidetrack is aimed inwards to the fault and center of Sabisa structure.

Good news they have HC's already and also good news the first of 6 flowtests at Ngamia flowed good quality oil.

Cash

[fraserdean] 15/4/2013 09:15

Sabisa to tease us for another month then, you don't spend money logging nowt though. ALl more positive than negative.

[fraserdean] 12/4/2013 10:53

Well, no news is good news I guess

[fraserdean] 08/4/2013 18:25

I'm hoping for sabisa this week, it's 10 months pregnant

[scyther] 08/4/2013 16:15

Sorry for being lazy but which one is the block closest to simba's block? 10bb rings a bell

[thelung] 08/4/2013 16:09

Sorry, Ngamia! For some reasom im expecting flow results this week

[cashandcard] 08/4/2013 15:29

The Lung,

We've already had Twiga flow results - circa 2800bopd.

Its Ngamia that we await, unless they've decided to put Ngamia back again and go off to drill another prospect first.

Sabisa well has got to be nearing its conclusion. Almost 3 months since it was spud.

Cash

[thelung] 08/4/2013 15:23

Anyone expecting Twiga flow results this week?

[fraserdean] 04/4/2013 16:55

Pleasure, they've got some great looking acreage off w africa but timis is timis

[eipgam] 04/4/2013 14:55

Thanks fd... you have saved me the bother of checking out that particular stock as I didn't spot the Timis link on first speed reading

[fraserdean] 04/4/2013 14:19

Particularly worth doing your own research on Frank Timis

[butcherano] 04/4/2013 02:35

O/T - African Petroleum Corp

Slightly off-topic, but may be of interest to investors with a focus on African oilers.

This is a stock that I've been following for a couple of years now (AOQ listed on the National Stock Exchange of Australia).
 
They had a nice sized oil discovery off the coast of Liberia in Feb 2012 (up to 840mmbbls mean recoverable unrisked).
 
A recent exploration/appraisal well indicated "relatively low permeability" and I believe this has been the trigger for the recent shareprice fall.
 
They've come back down from a high of $1.80 in March 2012 to just 25c now.  I missed the boat last time at the 30c levels, but have been buying at 25c recently.
 
I think the recent shareprice retrace will be very short term. I believe that even without a commercial oil discovery in Liberia, AOQ should be valued at 75c - $1.
 
I've started a new thread for this company with a lot more info at
 
Bit quiet at the moment, so would appreciate if anyone's interested to head over for a chat.
 
One thing that I really like about this company is that over 98% of the shares on issue are held by the top twenty shareholders. That only leaves around 24m shares available to freely trade on the market.
 
Also of note is that this a Frank Timis company. He's paired up with a very well respected Aussie chairman in Tony Sage.
 
More drilling coming up during the year. A massive 40,537km2 of acreage, with generally 90% - 100% stakes. 22,000km2 of 3D seismic on all blocks (which cost over $350m). Over 2.6 billion barrels net to the company in just the first prospect to be drilled in each of their blocks. Over 10 billion barrels of prospective recoverable resources including all prospects on all blocks. Big numbers and big potential.
 
CNOOC / Petrochina have been in talks to farm into 20% of all blocks.
 
AOQ at 25c reminds me of Africa Oil (AOI) at $1.
 
Please do your own research and make an educated decision.
 
Cheers,
Butcherano.