Aoi (Regs) Share Discussion Threads

[cashandcard] 27/11/2012 16:23

"In addition to the net pay, the well also penetrated a thick section of tight fractured rock below 2,272 metres which had extensive hydrocarbon shows over a gross interval of 796 metres. MOVEABLE OIL with an API greater than 30 degrees was also successfully sampled from this section"

The potential to get this section flowing seems a real possibility and it would be great if Tullow went ahead and tested a section of this tight zone. Could transform the prospective resources of the area yet again if it flows naturally OR under stimulation at half decent rates. Wonder what will come out of the conference call re. this one.

Cash

[fraserdean] 27/11/2012 15:50

Well, call just about to start let's hope for a marginal recovery but lots of time and oil ahead, happy days.

[fraserdean] 27/11/2012 09:37

Indeed, all info appreciated

Hopefully the conf call today will help soothe things a bit.

[thelung] 27/11/2012 08:37

Hello Volvo. Didn't buy back in either as AOI and SMB movement to me didn't suggest a bumper result. Looking forward to your updates.

[volvo] 27/11/2012 08:00

Hello marty, sold my last lot here at 11 dollars in May, and went away.

Got whiff of the results of this drill early, but was not overly impressed with the Tullow boys outlook, so stayed out.

Getting some info hopefully next week, testing etc, will post.

[juju44] 26/11/2012 20:17

so , is the slide over in one day ?

[marty51] 26/11/2012 17:30

I didnt mean "ditch on a bounce" by the way.

[marty51] 26/11/2012 17:28

Me too.

Ouch, set us back a couple of months there, its a quick death though and should come back a bit but I think that until we get definitive answers then that is it for now.
8-9 dollar range.

It got ahead of itself and this corrects it a little.

Easy to say now, but thats what it seems to have done.

Never mind theyll get the Cap to anywhere from $6-10bn then flog it or most of it.
Thats my script anyway.

[juju44] 26/11/2012 17:07

hadronuk - i agree but the most of the selling is probably over - for now anyway so i might ditch on a bounce

[keya5000] 26/11/2012 16:48

Too much is being focused on the 30m bit, would not be suprised if the massive tight section holds some decent reserves when tested or stimulated in the right manner. Tullow playing it very low key imo.

All good so far 2 out of 2.

[hadronuk] 26/11/2012 16:30

Pity you did not see it that way on Friday juju.

[fraserdean] 26/11/2012 16:30

Or it might be an overreaction, who knows, at times like this the movements aren't logical, espectially when information is limited, fear and greed, nobody knows the current situation basically, wait and see

[juju44] 26/11/2012 16:01

think this was pumped too much and didnt meet the hype hence the massacre

[bandit99] 26/11/2012 15:51

I would not be too despondent. Base purely on the public domain data (press release and November Investor presentaion) my interpretation would be they have hit a fault/fault zone and the fractured rock is in or on the other side of this fault zone. This would mean a down -dip well further into the basin may encouter better quality porous rock still in the oil column which appears to be c 800m thick ( NB does not specify whether it is contiguous or not). To those familiar with the N Sea this sound like the situation at Brae.

Overall they have done the difficult part: found oil/source rocks and reservoirs and there are structures in the same play left to be drilled.

A chance to add shares on price slippage?

[juju44] 26/11/2012 15:05

if only i had done a runner on Friday

[robizm] 26/11/2012 14:01

A few analysts have said these are over priced and only worth 7 dollars so are they right

[cashandcard] 26/11/2012 13:50

juju,


Some have been here quite awhile, before any discoveries under $2. Then there are those that got in with the first payzone confirmation at Ngamia. Its only the recent entrants who will start to worry upon a short and sharp fall in the value of their holdings. Each to their own.

Cash

[eipgam] 26/11/2012 12:56

Cheers fd... copied to TLW thread with thanks

[juju44] 26/11/2012 12:40

question is whether or not to take some profit while its still there . any further collapse on TSX would not be funny

[fraserdean] 26/11/2012 12:22

pleasure

Barclays Research comment:
"TULLOW (OW 1920p) Tullow has announced the results of its key onshore well in Kenya - Twiga South. At 30m of net pay, this would appear disappointing at first glance given the recent press reports suggesting the potential was even larger than the Ngamia discovery (100m net pay). However, it is critical to note that this well was looking to target a deeper part of the prospect, rather than the most prolific up dip section as was the case for Ngamia. In other words this well has effectively test the extent of the reservoir and allows Tullow to better understand the stratigraphy of the entire basin. This should therefore be seen as a positive result with the potential to increase resource estimates for the entire basin. In addition the well penetrated a thick section of tight fractured rock which had extensive hydrocarbon shows over a gross interval of 796m. This tight fractured rock section is a new play-type for the region that will require further evaluation to understand its extent and any productive potential. We currently carry 60m bls for Twiga, and a risked value of 4p based on a chance of success (CoS) of 40%. Were the resource estimate and CoS on Twiga to rise to the same as Ngamia (200m bls and 70%), this would result in a 27p increase in the value of the asset. Our current NAV for the group is 1920p. Over the next 4-8 weeks the company will look to perform a series of flow tests on the discovery and the fractured rock section of the well. The company is also currently drilling the Paipai-1 well (1p risked, 20p unrisked) and will spud the Sabisa well in Ethiopia before year end (2p risked, 23p unrisked). We continue to see the potential onshore Kenya as a game changer for Tullow and carry 212p of value within our risked NAV, or 911p on an unrisked basis."

[eipgam] 26/11/2012 12:11

Thanks fd....

I wonder if that will have a calming effect on the share price at TSX opening...

"it only clipped the reservoir"

[fraserdean] 26/11/2012 11:40

In case hadn't seen Morgan Stanley this morning:

NOVEMBER 26, 2012 GMT

Tullow Oil (TLW.L)

BEST IDEA *


Twiga Success Reaffirms Basin Potential; OW


Download the complete report (11 pgs)


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

What's Changed

Price Target
1,780p to 1,785p



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


While previously announced that Twiga found oil, today TLW confirmed that it discovered 30m of oil and a new, deeper play, albeit further analysis is required. The well results to date reaffirm the basin's multi bn barrel size and supports our belief of the region's transformational potential on TLW

Twiga well makes oil discovery: While previously announced that Twiga (the 2nd Kenyan well) found oil, Tullow confirmed that it encountered 30m of net oil pay of similar quality to Ngamia (the 1st Kenyan well) and discovered a potentially new play as well. While, the 30m at Twiga compares to 100m at Ngamia, unlike Ngamia, Twiga was located to test the deeper reservoir sections providing TLW a comprehensive subsurface understanding with as few vertical wells as possible.

Twiga vs. Ngamia: Ngamia and Twiga were located to test different concepts. To prove the play and maximise the reservoir section intercepted (100m) Ngamia was drilled 2km from the basin fault. Whereas, to provide insight deeper down, Twiga was drilled 4km away and, consequently, it only clipped the reservoir, discovering 30m. The Twiga up-dip potential will be appraised later.

New potentially regional play type: In addition, to the 30m of net oil pay in the shallower reservoir sections, Twiga discovered ~800m of gross oil pay deeper down in a tight fractured rock, potentially opening a new regional play. However, further analysis is required before final assessment of its potential.

Core unch., and Base NAV +0.5%: We modestly de-risk the next wells but leave the resources unch. and do not yet reflect a basin wide de-risking. Results from Okure (Ghana, 65p) and Zaedyus (French Guiana, 43p) are expected soon with Paipai (Kenya, 45p) by YE.