Aoi (Regs) Share Discussion Threads

[fraserdean] 12/2/2013 15:31

And Investec 1000, shows what analysts know, at least one of them is very wrong, potentially both wrong but they can't both be right. So I'd say that was quite bearish for analysts.

Reiterate Sell – Today's update is supportive of our bearish thesis, with risks
on the development side of the portfolio again overshadowing Tullow's
exploration competency. We reiterate our Sell and 1000p SoTP-derived target.

[eipgam] 12/2/2013 15:05

o/t see TLW thread.... Liberum reiterated 1755p PT today for TLW

[oilretire] 12/2/2013 14:55

maybe cause they know the TLW update is good? mind you TLW need it to be good too to get Investec off their sell rating

[eipgam] 12/2/2013 14:52

Buyers don't seem to be worrrying about TLW update tomorrow.

[cashandcard] 08/2/2013 15:04

Tullow reporting nextweek. Position taking time.

Cash

[eipgam] 01/2/2013 15:01

I want to make a wee fortune on this ;-)

[cashandcard] 01/2/2013 12:17

Folks,

From the smb board:

"Pai pai rumours are coming from the same place where ngamia and twiga rumours came from.

The farm out process is in the balance. If I was a major farming in a basin where no proven hydrocarbons existed then I would wait and de risk my investment by waiting until someone hits or misses. Based on that the amount or risk can be assessed.

This can also work well for Simba. If simba is negotiating a 2 well carry plus cash and they are currently being offers say 1 carry and cash simba can take the risk of waiting for pai pai and taking to the negotiating table which will add further ammunition to simba.

The pai pai situation favours Simba at present and stocks in oil in Kenya are moving northwards for this very rumour. 130 meters net is what I am hearing.

Atb
Gtl"


Make of that what you will.

[fraserdean] 01/2/2013 09:42

From Investec this morning re Sabisa:
17% CoS
Impact – According to the partners, there are multiple prospects and leads on trend. As a result Sabisa represents a trigger well with the potential to open up a new basin and derisk targets along the bounding fault south to Ngamia. Africa Oil has a more leveraged position to the well due to its smaller market cap. We estimate on a risked basis the Sabisa is worth SEK0.53 and SEK5.30 to Africa Oil. The corresponding figures for Tullow are 2p risked and 23p unrisked.

[fraserdean] 30/1/2013 10:29

I'd love it to come in but for me it's the sprinkles on top of a flake in an ice cream. An unlikely bonus, but I do like sprinkles.

[85gary] 30/1/2013 09:30

Last few posts are so important imo. If the Cretaceous is proven at paipai, then so much more is brought into play. paipai itself is not big on its own, but the analysis is soooooo important. Way I understand it Sudan discoveries may run into Kenya. This lends more weight to an eventual export route...i.e. Lappset and is great news for others in the area as mentioned above. Just my take, so I'd welcome other views.

[juju44] 29/1/2013 21:16

not long to wait to find out now

[cashandcard] 29/1/2013 21:05

freserdean,

I generally agree. But its not a matter of comparing the two. Tertiary rift is huge, the Cretaceous rift could also be huge in its own right. Taipan Resources, who are adjacent to AOI block 9, say that Tertiary play fairway may exist in the right spots in the East of Kenya also:

"Management believes that newly defined Tertiary plays on Block 2B are analogous to the recent Ngamia-1 oil discovery"



The Cretaceous leads/prospect inventory will suddenly burst into life if they have any success at Pai Pai. They will be reprocessing seismic to make sure they build up the inventory as much as they can. Its also apparent the Cretaceous prospects, although fewer than the Tertiary 'proven' prospects, are larger in size. This is the same play which has proven 6bln bbls of oil in Sudan to the Northwest.

Lets see what Tullow come up with, it may not impact TLW and AFR, but it certainley will AOI.

Cash

[fraserdean] 29/1/2013 20:39

Paipai has few follow on prospects, it ain't as important as Twiga

[cashandcard] 29/1/2013 20:07

eipgam,

Thanks for clearing that up, long day. Well, this is becoming rather interesting once again. If Tullow were confident they could locate the basin hotspots, then I would not be voting against them. This is what AOI said in their last update (11-01-2013):


"Drilling operations continue at the Paipai prospect in Kenya Block 10A which is preparing to drill ahead at 3,850 meters after setting 9 5/8" casing. The well has penetrated a shaly interval which is believed to be a potential top seal for the main objective reservoirs of Lower Cretaceous and possibly Jurassic age. The well is expected to reach total depth in the first half of February"



If it has not been mentioned already, both Taipan Resources and Van Oil Energy (tsx) have blocks bordering AOI's block 9 in the same Cretaceous play as Pai Pai. They have been rising significantly for the last two weeks, breaking away from a slump and sideways trading. Could just be speculative position taking or is there more to it than that?

Come on Tullow, spill the beans, what have you found below the 'shaly' interval believed to be potential top seal for the main objective reservoir.


Cash

[thelung] 29/1/2013 19:10

FYI, gimme on the SMB board thinks Pai Pai may be a bigger result than Twiga.

[eipgam] 29/1/2013 19:08

and a lot higher than where it sank to a few weeks ago!

[juju44] 29/1/2013 18:45

which is where it peaked in May

[eipgam] 29/1/2013 18:34

PS 70SEK is CA$11.01 at todays rates

[eipgam] 29/1/2013 17:41

found the article... it does say kroner

[eipgam] 29/1/2013 15:49

eh? for million, read SEK?