Aoi (Regs) Share Discussion Threads

[juju44] 29/1/2013 11:37

on the move with good volume

[eipgam] 27/1/2013 13:12

That website is suss if you ask me.... I'm going to stay well away from it.... but if anyone has details of the note, I'd be pleased if you could post.

[eipgam] 24/1/2013 16:41

Kenya news is due soon, but I don't think the AFR rise yesterday can be regarded as an indicator.... but I'm def staying in here cause I think we will regain the $10/11 we have recently enjoyed (but failed to take advantage of!)

[cashandcard] 24/1/2013 10:29

Folks, before you shoot me down for posting most of this article, it is one hell of a read with regard to Kenya. Thanks kurdish aspect and (the rest) enjoy!

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Kenya's Oil: The Hottest Energy Prospect In Africa?

By: OilPrice.com Date: 24 January 2013


Kenya has become the hottest oil and gas venue in East Africa since big discoveries were made in the country's virgin oilfields last April. All eyes are on Kenya in 2013 to see how quickly – and economically they can develop those discoveries into production.

The Future Looks Bright For Kenyan Oil.

Nairobi based Taipan Resources Inc. (TPN-TSXV; TAIPF-PINK) is the 4th largest acreage owner in Kenya, and is getting ready to carry out seismic on Block 2B. They recently attracted Maxwell Birley as CEO. Mr. Birley has been instrumental in discovering more than 2 billion barrels of oil equivalent in his 30-year career-much of it in Africa and Asia.

In an exclusive interview with James Stafford of OilPrice.com, Taipan CEO Maxwell Birley discusses:

Why Kenya is the hottest venue in East Africa 

Why 2013 will be a stellar year for Kenya 

Why the regulatory environment remains attractive 

Why Kenya outranks its neighbours
Why infrastructure will be in place in time for commercial activity 

Why this venue is good for the juniors
Why the Somalia security risk remains low 

What Taipan is really chasing


OP: There were some major discoveries in Kenya last year. Could you give me some colour on these discoveries that has the market thinking Kenya is now one of the hottest exploration spots on earth?



Maxwell Birley (MB): There are a couple – or 2 billion – reasons actually. First, two recent discoveries by Tullow in the Tertiary Lokichar basin of Kenya are in similar geological settings as the discoveries also made by Tullow in the Albertine Basin in Uganda, just to the west.

Uganda has over 2 billion barrels, and the discoveries are similar enough that one could assume the eventual size of the resources in the Lokichar basin could be in the billions of barrels range as well.

There are also other Tertiary basins in Kenya that are attractive. Based on geochemical work we recently did it's possible that the eventual hydrocarbon resource size for the whole of Kenya could be much higher than this.

Being specific the unrisked prospective resources for Taipan's acreage in Kenya is 530 million barrels. We also believe that this estimate will likely increase to approximately 1.0 billion on completion of our studies.


These estimates are for only 2 blocks in Kenya, if this is reasonably extrapolated to other blocks across the country one can easily forecast very significant hydrocarbon resource sizes indeed.


OP: What's the easiest and most challenging thing about working with the Kenyan government and in the Kenyan political climate?



MB: The Ministry of Energy is always ready for a meeting. They listen to our concerns and take the appropriate action. They quickly follow up and give us the support that we need with other Ministries. In the field the local administration is also very helpful. We have regular meetings to make sure our work continues without a hitch.

With regard to the political climate, there is an election coming up in March 2013. We're making arrangements so that we do not have a slowdown in seismic operations during that period. The last elections in 2007 were associated with some "geographically limited" security issues, however these were located far from our areas of operation, so we are not expecting the elections to have much impact on our operations.

OP: The Kenyan government is reviewing its oil and gas regulations. Among the suggested amendments is one that would see the National Oil Corporation (NOC) get a 25% interest in oil properties that foreign firms are operating in Kenya, but this would put the government in a precarious position vis-à-vis attracting investors. How do you see this playing out in the end?

MB: The government is reviewing the terms that shall apply for licences/contracts that will be granted in the future. Oil companies will review all the terms on offer at the time of bid submission and compare them to the attractiveness of the acreage.

OP: In November last year, Kenya expelled Norwegian Statoil, after revoking its exploration license. Is Nairobi increasingly 'policing' exploration, and what will this mean for investors in the near/medium term?

MB: One of the main functions of the Ministry is to regulate the companies undertaking exploration activities in Kenya. We feel confident, as in many other countries where we have worked, that if you carry out your commitments in the timeframe of the PSC then your license is 100% secure. If we decide to go into the next phases of exploration on Block 2B we can continue to explore for hydrocarbons on the block for another 4.5 years without concerns to the validity of our contract.

OP: How does the industry view the financial terms offered by Nairobi in oil and gas?

MB: We believe the terms are reasonably attractive, at least for an oil discovery. The reason that only a few exploration wells were drilled in the past was due to the lack of exploration success-and this was driven by the lack of understanding by the oil companies of the basins. It wasn't because of financial terms offered by the government.

Now that a discovery has been made and our knowledge is increasing, we are going to see a significant increase in drilling activity and therefore reserve additions to the country.

OP: Is Kenya becoming more a game for the majors rather than the juniors, and do you think we will see more joint ventures in the near future?

MB: In our opinion there is a place for small companies at every stage of the development of an oil province. But it's definitely good news for those juniors with large land positions already in the country. The early movers--i.e. the companies like Taipan that acquired their acreage before the oil was discovered-will benefit from the recent oil discoveries. Most of the more prospective acreage has now been leased and therefore the competition for land is increasing.

As large volumes of oil are discovered, the large independent and Majors will start to notice the country more and more. The Majors-due to their size and complexity-tend to be exploration risk averse and prefer to concentrate on large, lower-risk developments.

OP: How would you like to see Nairobi interact with the energy sector moving forward? And how does Kenya compare with other venues in the region like Ethiopia, Tanzania, and Sudan?

MB: There is no doubt that Nairobi is a premium location for business, tourism and families. This is illustrated by the fact that many multi-nationals operating in the sub-Sarahan African region have their head offices in Nairobi. Regarding interaction, it is the oil industry that will need to develop an active and well respected industry body so that broad industry issues can be discussed at the higher levels.

OP: Kenya is clearly the East African leader in oil infrastructure, and is now starting the Lamu Port-South Sudan-Ethiopia Transit corridor (LAPSSET) project. But it will cost $25 billion for the roads, the 1200 km pipeline and 120,000 barrel-per-day refinery. How feasible do think this project is and why? Is it feasible in the timeframe projected by Nairobi?

MB: The resources in Uganda and to some extend south Sudan must be exported. A pipeline through Kenya seems to be the most feasible.

Regarding the time line, having 2.5 billion barrels sitting in the ground just west of Kenya in Uganda is a really strong motivation to build the pipeline quickly. In South Sudan I think they started pumping oil back up north again now, but I think they will want to go through Kenya in the near future.

Whether it's LAPSSET or the Tullow consortium someone is going to build a pipeline through Kenya to the coast in the next few years. We think the pipeline will be located within 175 kilometres from our acreage. The pipeline will be good for everybody in the region but it should be particularly positive for us.

So when we make a discovery on Block 2B, the pipeline will be in the construction phase. In the interim we'll truck the oil by bowser the early production from the fields. Then, depending on the size of any discoveries, we'll build a connecting pipeline into the pipeline from Uganda. I think we're in a very fortunate position now.

OP: In terms of exploration what are the 'sweet spots' in Kenya?

MB: Definitely the Anza Basin. Currently, the proven sweet spots are in the Tertiary sediments of the rift basins of Uganda and Kenya. More specifically to Kenya in the Lokichar Basin as proven by the Ngamia and Twiga wells by Africa Oil.

These basins form part of the larger East African Rift system. This is a very extensive rift system and many new plays will be discovered in the next few years. The Anza Basin is the largest of these East African rift basins and 10 times the size of Uganda's Albertine Basin and Kenya's Lokichar Basin. This rift contains Jurassic, Cretaceous and Tertiary sediments.

Taipan is exploring for oil in the south eastern end of the Anza basin. Located on block 2B we have proven more than 9,500 feet of Tertiary section on the block. From the geochemical modelling we have undertaken we see the same oil source rocks in the Anza Basin that are present in the Lokichar basin, which are highly likely to be mature for oil generation on Block 2B. In addition we also believe that more oil discoveries will be made in the Cretaceous and Jurassic basins if you can find favourable places to drill.

OP: What has Taipan's proprietary technical work in Block 2B in the Anza Basin demonstrated so far?

MB: The Anza basin has proven oil-prone Cretaceous source that in places is potentially in the gas window (Bogal gas discovery), however our technical work has also demonstrated that the basin has an active Tertiary lacustrine (lake) oil source that is in the oil window. Consequently, the Anza basin has an excellent chance of being a much more significant oil producing basin than the small rift basins that have so far been discovered.

OP: And that's what you're really chasing here-with these roughly 10 million acres in the Anza Basin-the tertiary play...

MB: Agreed. What we're primarily chasing in Block 2B is the same Tertiary oil play that Tullow inherited originally in Uganda. The discoveries there were the main reason Africa Oil and Tullow drilled the Ngamia and Twiga oil wells in Kenya-which have also been very successful. Of course, don't overlook the fact we also have a secondary Cretaceous oil play in the block, that appears to be broadly analogous to the Cretaceous plays present in the Muglad Melut basins of southern Sudan and is the main focus of exploration efforts in Block 10A, operated by Africa Oil Corp.

Regarding the rest of our acreage, in Block 1 for example where we have a 20% interest in a 31,781 Km2 block we are chasing older Cretaceous, Jurassic and Permo-Triassic plays. The block is located in an extension of the successful Ogaden Basin of Ethiopia and Somalia. We think the block will be very prospective as it is surrounded by oil seeps and a well that recovered oil on test.

The 2 blocks combined makes us the 4th largest acreage holder in Kenya. In terms of near-term drilling and catalysts in the region, we have Tertiary, Cretaceous and Jurassic plays on Block 1 and Block 2B that will be drilled in the next 12 to 18 months.

OP: Tell us what 2013 will look like for exploration in Kenya?

MB: Ten exploration wells should be drilled in Kenya in 2013. Based on the previous success rate it is expected that a significant number of these will be discoveries. Tullow will continue drilling wells on Blocks 10BB and 13T on the west side of the country to find more oil in that string of pearls.

Also we shall shortly get the results of the Paipai-1 well which is currently drilling in northern part of the Anza Basin. The well is testing Cretaceous & Jurassic plays, with a potential 121 million barrels. Other wells including Sabisa and Kinyonga also expected to be drilled in 2013.

OP: For Kenya, a discovery at Paipai-1 would prove that oil discoveries of Sudan extend into Kenya. What would it mean for Taipan?

MB: There have already been Cretaceous gas discoveries in Kenya. Taipan believes that if you can find the Cretaceous that has not been buried too deep it will be prospective for oil. However we think the Paipai well is very high risk as it seems likely to be a recent tectonic inversion structure and therefore may be breached by recent faulting. We think we can find on Block 2B Cretaceous structures that are oil prone that have not been breached by recent faulting. So if that well does come in then it is going to be good news for the Anza Basin in general, but if dry it will not write off the Cretaceous potential in our block. Having said that I should point out that this is not our main focus at this time.

OP: What about other prospects, like the Kinyonga well?

MB: Kinyonga is the next big prospect that is going to be drilled by Africa Oil Corp. and that is very meaningful for us. Kinyonga, which is on Block 9, will be located relatively close to our block, is both Tertiary and Cretaceous prospect. It has an unrisked resource estimate of 320 million barrels prospective, and it is one of the largest prospects in Africa Oil's portfolio of drilling targets. Africa Oil also has another prospect called Pundamilia which is even closer to our block. This prospect has a unrisked resource Best estimate of 402 million barrels and a High estimate of 952 million barrels which I believe is the largest prospect in Africa Oil's portfolio.

OP: And what is the status of Kinoyonga?

MB: The timeline Africa Oil report for Kinoyonga is the 2nd half of 2013.

OP: That would be a pretty big corollary for Taipan ....

MB: I think that even prior to getting those drilling results; investors are going to become more aware that the Tertiary play extends into our block. This was proven by the Hothori well which encountered 9500 ft. of Tertiary sediments. Better than this based on seismic data we estimate that in parts of the block there could be greater than 15,000 feet of Tertiary sediments.......

[eipgam] 23/1/2013 18:46

I'm sure most here will already be aware but AFR and TLW have had a similar action (the rise here bewtween 5.30/6.30 GMT)... I hope we don't have too long to wait to find out why. If there is a reason, that is...

[cashandcard] 22/1/2013 10:02

eipgam,

Yes, from page 9 of the May 2012 presentation, 855m and on they start getting oil shows:



Not suggesting it will be the same at Sabisa, but relatively shallow if we can get it.

Cash

[eipgam] 17/1/2013 15:25

Not sure but two posts from the TLW board may help? Although they are slightly at odds with each other


maccack 20 Mar'12 - 01:24 - 16922 of 18052



first para of AOI news release relevant to TLW.....

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwire - March 19, 2012) - Africa Oil Corp. ("Africa Oil" or the "Company") (TSX VENTURE:AOI)(OMX:AOI) reports that the Tullow Oil operated Ngamia-1 well on Block 10BB in Kenya is currently at a depth of 1,040 metres and is drilling ahead to a planned target depth of approximately 2,700 metres. There are no results to report at this time.

AND

pr4w2b0y 26 Mar'12 - 13:22 - 16938 of 18052

That news update link seems have gone a little skew wiff, copied below;

Ngamia-1 oil discovery in Kenya Rift Basin

26 March 2012 - Tullow Oil plc (Tullow) announces that the Ngamia-1 exploration well in Kenya has encountered in excess of 20 metres of net oil pay.

The well, located in the Turkana County of Kenya Block 10BB, was drilled to an intermediate depth of 1,041 metres and has been successfully logged and sampled. Moveable oil with an API greater than 30 degrees has been recovered to surface. This oil has similar properties to the light waxy crude discovered in Uganda.

[cashandcard] 17/1/2013 14:54

At Ngamia, at what depth did they start getting oil shows? relatively shallow if I'm not mistaken, circa 800m?.

Cash

[eipgam] 17/1/2013 14:37

and it will take 2 months

[eipgam] 14/1/2013 14:38

as reported elsewhere, Sabisa-1 is now spudded.

[eipgam] 12/1/2013 10:18

cheers but link doesn't work for me.

[eipgam] 11/1/2013 18:39

In Kenya and Ethiopia, Tullow said it was expecting a result from its high-risk PaiPai-1 well in February and a flow rate test completion at its Twiga-South-1 well in the same month. It plans to start drilling at the Sabisa-1 well within two weeks.

[fraserdean] 11/1/2013 16:36

Great re the 13 wells, but people had been hoping for some results from testing or paipai this morning, another few weeks yet

[eipgam] 11/1/2013 16:35

Have you link, McB, please?

[mcbeanburger] 11/1/2013 16:24

fraserdean
11 Jan'13 - 15:33 - 1973 of 1973 0 0


no news is no news

=====


like the update PR from AOI yesterday?