Aoi (Regs) Share Discussion Threads

[cashandcard] 26/11/2012 11:22

30m netpay so far and more payable potential, including the updip potential. The were discoveries in Uganda that had smaller payable sections and flowed at good commercial rates. 30api - great stuff.

Cash

[itsonlyme2] 26/11/2012 11:17

sounds like just a dribble of oil to me, as the papers said

[cashandcard] 26/11/2012 10:57

String theory is proven, regardless of how many sell on news. However, reading through that RNS from TLW, seems its a little premature. They should have spent a little longer on it, assessed the new play and run atleast one, early flowtest to show what the discovered netpay is capable of. I guess its all about this now:

"A series of flow tests will now be conducted on the well over the next 4-8 weeks. Following completion of the testing programme, the rig will move back to flow test the Ngamia-1 well"

Cash

[juju44] 26/11/2012 10:01

massive rush for the exit in Sweden . Thing is , will it get worse on TSX this afternoon

[juju44] 26/11/2012 09:12

yep , maybe he was . A long fractious wait to get a kick in the teeth

[itsonlyme2] 26/11/2012 09:11

looks like BIG_CAT was spot on

[juju44] 26/11/2012 08:42

down 15% now

[juju44] 26/11/2012 08:22

down 10%. thats what you get for finding more oil. Looks like its not living up to expectations and sell on the news brigade dumping in quantity

[juju44] 26/11/2012 07:28

BINGO ......tullow , more oil

[juju44] 24/11/2012 13:39

that is broadly my understanding of it also

[eipgam] 24/11/2012 12:51

Thanks for the posts above....

One thing though: I understood that it was not a (re)financing deal through instis and the like, but an assortment of private investors brought together by the Swedish Bank (whose name escapes me at the mo'). I also understood that it was they who approached AOI with the cash, and not the company going to the market looking for cash as is the normal course, which obviously makes a big difference as to how you view the investment.

Please comment....

[woodcutter2013] 24/11/2012 12:26

This Nathan Kirykos guy clearly has an agenda and MOtley Fool shows again it has no credibility filter. Basic fact-checking as well as rudimentary DD on obvious points conveniently left out of his article blows holes in his investment thesis.

Appears that the article first surfaced on Stockhouse's AOI board. There were a couple of posts on the AOI board yesterday under the thread "Volume" that were surprisingly insightful and well thought-out that appear to have been overshadowed when the Motley article came out. Text from two posts below:

1. "As I posted a while back, my take on the low volume and lack of meaningful price movement is that it is a financing overhang.

Back in September, Keith Hill said the company was planning a ~$200 million financing for "later this year". Whether they do it this year or early next year, it is coming. Other than that, AOI no specific timeframe or details although there has been speculation by some of the analysts that it will come right after Twiga results are announced. When there is no certainty as to timing, you often see low volume or lack of price conviction by market players.

I also think institutions are waiting for Twiga results for certainty about continuity in the "string of pearls" theory and they are waiting for the financing even though they know the share price will rise on good Twiga news. My understanding is that professional institutional investors are more comfortable being certain about an investment's merits and knowing they have to pay more for that investment, rather than paying a bit less and not being as certain. Plus, financings are generally done at a slight discount of around 5% or so below market prices anyway. That's just my opinion on what's been going on for the past month or two."



2. "You're welcome.

What's interesting to me are all of the sub-plots on the financing as opposed to what the actual price per share is when the financing is announced. In my opinion, the biggest question is: "What is the Lundin family going to do?"

The Lundins have the wealth to provide the entire financing if they wanted to do so. Obviously it is extremely unlikely that they'll do that, but will they take enough of it to maintain their pro-rata ownership percentage of AOI? Will they increase their percentage?

This has ramifications for any institutions who might be waiting on the financing to get shares. Depending of what the Lundins do, there could be fewer shares left over to divvy up than the institutions and brokerage firms currently think there will be!

So what happens then? Does the financing then get increased if the Lundins take a big chunk? Or will there be a number of institutions who get fewer shares than they wanted, or none at all, kind of like in an IPO scenario?

There are other questions to consider, too. Will the institutional shareholders that already currently own AOI increase their holdings on good Twiga news? Will some investors sell a portion of their holdings to lock in gains prior to year-end, as I'm sure some institutions who are currently on the sidelines are hoping will happen. Will there be a buying flurry in AOI prior to year-end for institutional portfolio window-dressing?

What brokerage firms will get to do the financing? This matters as well, because diffferent brokerages have different institutional investor client relationships. Depending on who gets the financing and what the Lundins do, there could be some institutional investors who end up getting PO'd that they have to buy in the open market if they want AOI shares.

Lots of things to think about to pass the time while we wait."

[juju44] 24/11/2012 10:17

the peers comparison is rubbish , the political risk is not as big in Kenya as many other oil areas where companies operate normally,the valuation is bound to be high given the big hopes for the area and rather than tell us that the insiders are not buying please provide evidence of the selling as none can be found on official marketwire.
Always good to be cautious but this is also a game of chance

[keya5000] 24/11/2012 08:32

marty I agree, you cant compare a producing company operating in North America to one hunting elephants in Africa.

Just written by a simple blogger (BB Contributor) to support his own position.

[big_cat] 24/11/2012 00:44

The above post is from Motley Fool

[juju44] 23/11/2012 21:24

something is obviously in the price but another elephant will make for a major move north

[eipgam] 23/11/2012 18:29

You could well be right, but I'm sure a % of that upside (which, of course, depends on positive news) is still to be realised.

[robochubby] 23/11/2012 17:58

My view is anything below expectation i.e 100m net oil column the share price will drop. There is a lot of upside factored into the current share price

[eipgam] 23/11/2012 16:21

Perhaps a read accross would be interesting....

According to MLBoA, Twiga and Paipai are worth 70p unrisked for their 50% which equals £0.7 x 907.38million shares =£635million upside

£635 miilion = $1011 million / 230,427,994 shares (fully diluted, from AOI website)= $4.38 upside (unless, of course, some of that is already in the price)

(PS am I correct in saying that AOI have 50% of Twiga and PaiPai?)

[eipgam] 23/11/2012 14:39

Jolly good

[cashandcard] 23/11/2012 14:21

Courtesy of Soundbuy on the Tullow board

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FT AV



From Merrill re TLW after their oil and gas 'do' yesterday

Firstly, TULLOW OIL, where we have a BUY rating and PO/NAV of 2,249p
offering >60%upside potential.

There are 4 key well potential catalysts to come, all potentially before year-end:

(1) the Twiga South well onshore Kenya, worth c.30p unrisked, with a result due in late November, so any day now. We remain optimistic that the delays experienced are positive;

(2) the Okure well offshore Ghana, also worth c.30p unrisked, with a result due imminently;

(3) the Zaedyus-2 well offshore French Guiana worth 45p unrisked, with a result due by year-end; and

(4) the Paipai well onshore Kenya, worth 40p unrisked, with a result also due by year-end.

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Cash