Anpario Share Discussion Threads

[igoe104] 14/1/2025 09:27

John Lee tips ANP for one 2025 selections, in the latest IC podcast...

[someuwin] 13/1/2025 21:57

"...Anpario’s shares have delivered a 34 per cent total return since I suggested buying a couple of months ago (Alpha Research: ‘Profit from a sustainable investment’, 8 November 2024) and I am raising my target to 500p (from 420p). It may still prove conservative. Buy."

[cerrito] 13/1/2025 11:44

I pass this on without editorial comment as I have not got round to looking at it.
Paul Scott has written that after weekend digging he calculates that if the share price was to go from 410 to 615 then Richard Edwards makes a £2.74m gain and Karen Prior a £2.46m gain.

[igoe104] 13/1/2025 08:07

Looks like ANP will be one of the beneficiary of this deal that Rach Reeves has done with China. Looking at the details....

👊

Spot on Eric, too many folks influenced by these so called experts, I can't believe people even pay for it.

[pireric] 11/1/2025 23:36

Cerrito - Paul Scott's way of thinking about this whole topic is pretty flawed. The EBT share buys are effectively a buyback pending potential future share issuances, the cost of which goes through the P&L, and the share option exercise prices are not egregious / nil priced. I listened to his Youtube share thing, and it was a complete muddled mess of thoughts

Just stare at the diluted share count, and look at the total potential shares to be diluted, and their exercise prices, which is a chart ANP provided in their last IMC video.

Eric

[cerrito] 11/1/2025 17:36

In his Substack podcast yesterday Friday, Paul Scott gave me something to chew on.
He correctly highlighted that the Employees Benefit Trust had a v high 18% holding and is comfortably the largest shareholder. He made the point that it is easy to get a warm feeling that the interests of the shareholders and the employees are more aligned than is generally the case. Good point.
Note that the number of shares held by the Trust increased from 3,400 to 3,650m between March 2023 and Feb 29, 2024.
The point he makes is that the cash cost of the company in buying these shares which are a form of compensation expense does not go through the P&L but do go through the cash flow statement.
He further correctly pointed out that the 2022 cash flow statement showed £3,565K being raised by the sale of shares and £3,270k was used to buy shares for the EBT. At the time I must have been asleep at the wheel.
Given that ANP is currently my largest holding, I need to organize myself to do some research.

[philly cheesesteak] 10/1/2025 12:33

"The five-year avg. EV/EBITDA is c.14x"

So EBITDA is forecast to be £7m next year, to get to their average rating they need to get to a market cap of £98m + £11m cash = £109m, 17m shares in issue so a target price of £6.35 at the average rating.

Looks like a very nice entry down here, particularly as it's traded over £5 both in 2018 and 2021 on significantly lower revenue & PBT / EPS.

Add in significant share price momentum and what's not to like?

[c3479z1] 10/1/2025 12:30

Bio-vet looks to have been a good/excellent acquisition thus far
question is -are the increased sales reported in MENA one-off or likely to be recurring?
sound balance sheet, efficiently run company.

[partridge1948] 10/1/2025 11:05

Very pleasing update. Tender offer to buy back 17% of shares at 225p in 2023 looking increasingly shrewd move and although early days Bio-Vet acquisition also reflects well on management. Cash generation remains a key strong point. Hopefully recent sales momentum will carry on in 2025, with commensurate boost to eps. A lot to like in my view, but always dyor

[shanklin] 10/1/2025 10:54

Per Shore, if ANP deliver 25.2p EPS this year, then forecasting 26.8p for FY25 seems completely ludicrous IMHO.

[martinmc123] 10/1/2025 10:30

4*
Anpario plc, the independent manufacturer of natural sustainable animal feed additives for health, nutrition and biosecurity, issued a positive trading update for the year ended 31 December 2024 this morning. The Group, including three months of trading for Bio-Vet Inc., delivered a stronger than expected operating performance in the


wealthoracle.co.uk/detailed-result-full/ANP/1127

[vprt] 10/1/2025 09:46

Yes, it was super capital allocation (that benefited all remaining holders greatly in the form of more E and value per share) that they swooped in with a massive tender offer near the lows when their end markets temporarily turned sour.

This is something most UK companies can learn from, as they mostly dabble in tiny buybacks that either are symbolic in nature, achieve very little (due to few shares traded / illiquidity) and/or sometimes drive the share price up temporarily (which does not help LT holders other than as a trading opportunity). GDWN and CFX are honourable exceptions.

But it's not easy for fund managers, especially if open-ended and facing redemptions/outflows whilst being invested in smallcaps. That's where we PIs have a nice advantage if we can stay cool-headed - we can hold through the trough and even take advantage of it by topping up.

[igoe104] 10/1/2025 09:26

I think the management were really smart gobbling all them shares for £2.25.

Must be extremely embarrassing for that fund who sold out at that level..

[cerrito] 10/1/2025 08:23

Yes all v good.
When I have time need to work out Shore's 2025 forecast FCF yield almost halving to 5.8% from the 10%+ of 2023/4 .

[vprt] 10/1/2025 07:54

Delighted(!)... H2 of as much as £20.5m revenues and profit ahead. Net cash almost unchanged at £10.5m despite paying $6.3m for Bio-Vet and a good chunk in dividends. Shore upgrades 2024F adjEPS to 25.2p (2025F 26.8). And the net cash is about 60p per share. (And make sure not to count the full JTC/LTIP in the share count if you want to get the valuation right).

[deanowls] 10/1/2025 07:43

It’s really dark at the moment. Think the lights have just been blown out.

Let’s hope this continues into this year. Awesome update.

[brigitta31] 23/12/2024 02:12

I don't know Michael, but I expect he is after a much bigger medium term prize than 25p with his trade. To my eye it looks as though there are 2 or 3 gaps to be filled from the last couple of years up to 500p and beyond, which could materialize over the next few months, judging from the statement in the interims that the board expects accelerating sales and continued improving profitability in H2.

[cfro] 19/12/2024 09:11

The share price has now flopped back after these celebrity traders pumped it. I suspected it would, it was obvious to me at least.
Many of their followers would simply have lost money or at best only made a small few pennies, not worth the effort. Of course these traders are after bigger prizes but they never get it because they are always thinking short-term hence they are never in when it happens.

[davr0s] 09/12/2024 17:46

Yes agreed - last thing needed here is a celebrity investor pumping it with their followers. Guess we will see a bit of choppy price action for a while

[rackersthedon] 09/12/2024 09:03

one of only 2 UK names I have and i agree with igoe. Under the radar is the way to go.

[igoe104] 09/12/2024 08:41

Last thing we need here is Michael Taylor and his trading gang. Just makes shares volatile, as they keep jumping in and out.

I'm happy seeing a steady climb, with no spikes...

[brigitta31] 07/12/2024 17:22

Michael Taylor writes in this weekend's Investors' Chronicle from the perspective of trading a breakout of the 360p level.

[pireric] 15/11/2024 08:47

Rightly or wrongly (Not sure if they meant to google index this!), the Alpha IC pdf is actually available online:

Again I'd caveat with my post previously (#1706) that the market cap and EV numbers (And therefore price target) in Simon's work are not adjusting for the EBT shares and are, as a result, understated quite materially, but still a helpful overview for those new to the company

EDIT: I understand that Simon made edits to his Alpha article today/yesterday - the above linked one is still the old one, but his new one live on the IC website corrects for the share count issue I flagged as well as a market cap/EV bridge issue, and he's now talking to a potentially 500p valuation level as achievable.

Eric

[rutlandram] 11/11/2024 20:41

Always best to ignore unconscious bias ( “ the market has finally come around to my way of thinking” ) and focus on facts.
ANP favourably discussed by two of the most respected small cap commentators last friday as well as others.
Plus the share goes ex div shortly, with a decent dividend yield