Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Anpario LSE:ANP London Ordinary Share GB00B3NWT178 ORD 23P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +7.00p +1.62% 440.00p 430.00p 450.00p 440.00p 433.00p 433.00p 1,950 08:29:04
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Food Producers 24.3 2.7 12.8 34.4 101.17

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Date Time Title Posts
08/1/201817:54ANPARIO (formerly Kiotech)1,066
04/11/200810:58Appian Technology1

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Anpario (ANP) Most Recent Trades

Trade Time Trade Price Trade Size Trade Value Trade Type
2018-01-16 17:10:18433.001,0004,330.00O
2018-01-16 14:34:01426.009834,187.58O
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Anpario Daily Update: Anpario is listed in the Food Producers sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker ANP. The last closing price for Anpario was 433p.
Anpario has a 4 week average price of 392.50p and a 12 week average price of 392.50p.
The 1 year high share price is 460p while the 1 year low share price is currently 267.50p.
There are currently 22,993,302 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 14,122 shares. The market capitalisation of Anpario is £101,170,528.80.
glasshalfull: ANP Share price still defies gravity despite earnings downgrades. I saw martinthebrave's post looking for clarity on earnings for the coming year and revisited my detailed post on earnings in March 2016 (post 910) where I talked of earnings stalling & intimated that I felt the share price was up with events at c.250p at the time. Shares are (+67p) since my what do I know!!!??? The share price was 134p in March 2013 when they released 2012 figures, and had risen to 305p when they released 2016 results on the 8th March 2017, or rise of 128% in 4-years. This is during a period when earnings have only risen marginally and are forecast to tread water this year & next. Worth clarifying that I still believe Anpario is a quality company & hope to reinvest at some point. Just don't feel I should be paying up in anticipation of growth 18 months away, especially when earnings have been fairly static for the last 4 years which I describe below. Looking back to post 910 a year ago, Peel Hunt lowered 2017 estimates from £5.3m PBT to £4.6m which translated into the forecasts for adj EPS falling from 20.7p to 18.1p. PH indicated that this would result in ANP achieving 12% earnings growth in 2017. In a March 2017 PH lowered 2017 estimates yet again, this time from the £4.6m to £4.3m or 17.7p adj EPS to 16.9p. So we now have a (-4%) earnings contraction in 2017. Singers has an even lower forecast of 14.7p adj EPS for 2017 My point is that ANP has essentially treaded water - in terms of earnings - for a number of years now whatever way one cares to look at it, with forecasts suggesting that earnings will continue in a similar vein for the next 18 months. Anpario Adj EPS: - 2012 - 15.1p EPS 2013 - 13.1p EPS 2014 - 14.8p EPS 2015 - 16p EPS 2016 - 16.6p EPS Consensus forecasts: - 2017 - 15.8P EPS 2018 - 15.4p EPS Worth pointing out that cash has risen from £3.7m at year end 2012 to £11.1m at end of 2016, but the dividend has only risen a meagre 2.5p (from 3p to 5.5p) in 4 years. So in conclusion, I recognise the steps management are taking to invest in subsidiaries & build relationships that will hopefully drives sales & earnings in the future. However, as I've discussed above, I happen to believe that the current 317p share price & PER of over 20 is simply too high. If ANP was churning out consistent 10%-15% earnings growth YoY then I would agree with the current rating, but in 2016 they produced marginal earnings growth with a dividend yield of only 1.7% despite strong cash generation. Earnings are forecast to fall back this year and next, so paying up 18/24 months in advance for growth doesn't appeal to me. Hopefully I'll join shareholders again as growing earnings materialise, or in circumstances where I consider that the share price has fallen back to a reasonable rating. Only my tuppenceworth FWIW. Best wishes to holders. Kind regards, GHF
woodcutter: thx mods my analysis fwiw ANP Chart free stock charts from ANP Fundamentals hxxp:// ANP provide natural animal feed additives for livestock in particular chicken, pork and beef. There are strong moves within the animal farm industry to move away from steroid and antibiotic induced feed additives to more natural products and ANP have a nice niche here. They've recently sold the lower margin side of their business to concentrate on higher margin product sales. It's quite an illiquid stock and the share price can move quite quickly so buying small blocks is the best way to accumulate. The Fundamentals P&L Market Cap £54m number of share in issue 21.85m. share price 260p revenue £23.33m operating profit £3.55m operating margin around 15.2%. adjusted reported eps (earnings per share) 15.72p per (price earnings ratio) 15.3 but there's almost 43p a share of net cash on the balance sheet so the adjusted per is around 13.5 for forecast eps of around 16.2p. This is against a more recent historic per of 20+ dividend 5.5p/share for a yield of around 2.2%, covered close to 3 times by eps. interest adequately covered by operating profits as there's no debt. market to book value roughly 2 times. tax charged at 10%, due to R&D credits, prior year adjustments and deferred tax assets on the balance sheet. The Fundamentals Balance Sheet ROCE return on capital employed 13%. current ratio 4.8 very strong acid ratio 4.32 debtors days around 106 days net gearing -ve 20%. So no gearing at all, cash positive pension obligations none The Fundamentals Cash Flow net debt £0m to EBITDA £4.4m is no problem as it's cash rich. pbt £3.6m. cash generated from operations after movements in working capital £3.6m. depreciation £573K capex £301K demonstrates the investment in new equipment relative to depreciation charge. Capitalised R&D spend £0m. All in all this is a very sound well managed business with further global growth prospects. woody
glasshalfull: Thanks for commenting Battlebus. We'll agree to disagree on the current valuation of ANP ;-) Although, think we're on similar page on the quality of the company but I happen to perceive that it's still rated as a growth stock which I fail to currently observe, even after the fall in share price. I happen to believe that the valuation has fallen in line with lukewarm earnings last year and forecasts for the coming year & while 250p is more realistic valuation IMHO I fail to see any significant upside in the next 12 months irrespective of their cash generation, as only 1% earnings growth is forecast. That of course excludes a bid or use of the cash for an earnings enhancing acquisition. Note you mention 3% EPS growth in 2016. I only see Peel Hunt covering and indicating 16.0p EPS in FY 2015 increasing to 16.2p EPS in FY 2016 which I make 1% growth. Are there other figures out there? Also think 1.9% is a low dividend yield for a company exhibiting strong cash generation with only a 2% yield forecast this year. If they were offering c. 5% yield at the current share price of 252.5p , until growth accelerates in 2017 or 2018, then that would have certainly better justified an investment case where one received a decent yield while waiting on the return of growth. Wish you well with ANP and hope to join you at some point ... if the price is right! Kind regards, GHF
battlebus2: Hi GHF, good to hear your view which i'm going to differ on. I too held Anpario a few years back and can only say how I admire Richard Rose and what he has done here and at CRAW. Yes I did see the Peel Hunt downgrade BUT feel the current 250 share price is too cheap. EPS growth of 8% is not pedestrian for this company with a track record of steady increases in Revenue pre tax profits and EPS. Brokers forecasts put the co on a p/e of 15.4 falling to 14 in 2017 with expected eps growth of 3% in 2016 and 12% in the year ending 31st December 17. Consistently increasing the cash pile to nearer 10 million though they do speak of investment in recruitment but surely if your forward thinking this can only be good news for future revenue and profits. Taking the cash pile into the equation the p/e is in single figures and pays a 2% dividend. We may see this cash put to use with another acquisition to further bolster growth imv This is a very well run outfit with no chances taken which to me makes 2.50 too cheap and £3 plus is a very realistic target over time. Dyor etc as ever applies.
glasshalfull: I've been watching ANP for a while now. Especially as the shares have fallen back 30% since the beginning of December 2015. I originally bought in during 2009 c. 60-70p (I think) & only left when I felt valuation had got too rich. I sold out c. 250 - 270p in 2014 so have very fond memories of the company. Been watching ever since for an opportunity to reinvest, either on share price weakness or earnings accelerating & where I could then feel comfortable with the valuation. Unfortunately having given these a good look I have decided against investing at the present time. Reading back through recent commentary on this thread I've failed to note any comments recently concerning the reduction in PBT & EPS forecasts following FY 2015 results (Peel Hunt). They also reduced their price target to 330p from 370p. Perhaps that's having a bearing on the weak share price??? Diluted EPS came in at 15.97p last year (FY 2014 14.76p) for 8.1% earnings growth. Irrespective of the fantastic cash generation & net cash position, that is fairly pedestrian growth IMHO and may partially explain why the shares have fallen back from a fairly steep PER of 23 around Dec 2015. ANP are investing in the recruitment of key sales appointments as acknowledged in the recent results outlook, "...The investment in senior commercial staff in our regions will increase overhead costs in the short term in order to support stronger long term performance." This would appear to have resulted in the brokers forecasts being reduced by c. 10% with PBT reducing from £4.6m to £4.1m in the current year which translates in a reduction in EPS forecasts from 18.3p to 16.2p. Therefore just 1% earnings growth in 2016 and only 8% growth in 2015. That would be okay if the business was valued on a PER 12-15 & growth perhaps stalling for 12/24 months as they invest in sales/markets/products , etc. Especially when they are exhibiting strong cash generation. But for a small cap with PER > 20 , it is bound to fall back to a more realistic rating while awaiting indication that earnings are once again accelerating. Forecasts for 2017 have also been lowered from £5.3m PBT to £4.6m. Again knocking EPS forecasts from 20.7p to 18.1p. That equates to12% earnings growth in 2017. So I don't think it unrealistic to see the shares fall back to c. 250p. ANP is a quality business & has delivered excellent growth since 2010, but I will sit on the sidelines until either the share price comes back further offering a better risk/reward opportunity to invest IMHO or I see evidence that earnings (growth) supports the valuation of the company. My tuppenceworth FWIW. Delighted to hear any opposing views. Kind regards, GHF
nivison: My phones not ringung off the hook either! Still scratching my head here. Looking at the last interim report all was going well, end of year profits heading towards £4million after tax, and possibly £9 million in the bank. Market cap by my fingers and toes should be about £85 million, so share price of £3.89 ish. DYOR and all that. So why are at about a quid lower. Still think this is a bump in the road but what do I know.
nivison: In the absence of any news from the company , I have been trying to figure out what is going on. This is all pure speculation on my part based on nothing at all. It is probably rubbish and I am sure people will tell me if they think it is. But. Why would the CEO of a growing, profitable, well run business with a good product decide to leave? My thinking goes like this:- David Bullen has a sales background and is the youngest of the senior managers at 42. Probably not yet ready to retire and still eager for new challenges. Sales guys tend to be very ambitious. Perhaps, just perhaps, the older generation are looking to sell up and head for the golf course and David Bullen isn't ready for that. By the time of the next interim statement I would envisage about £9 million in the bank and annual profits of near £4million. Maybe the MM s have taken the opportunity to drop the share price in order to make the offer, if one comes, look more attractive. I don't know. Just an idea, and one I hope isn't correct to be honest as i have always viewed this share as a long term hold. But I put this out there as an idea.
tailgunner2: The company cannot look at their share price...... By now, after about third day of savaging, the company really should come out with " we have noted share price .... We know no reason..... Yada yada"...If they don't, then folk might start thinking there is something wrong........ Come on ANP / nomad do yer job!!!!!...
woodcutter: Davidosh...... my concerns lie with the influence that PS has on his wider readership and impact his blog may have on share price movements as a direct result of those followers buying/selling on his recommendation and his own positions. Notwithstanding if you're going to place yourself in a postion of providing share tips (and that's what they are despite the protestations to the contrary)then you must expect criticism if you're not declaring your positions. How do we know there's no market manipulation. I have to trust your judgement that he's saintly and holier than thou, having never met the chap i'm not in a position to make that judgement. Suppose i asked you to give me £50k of your hard earned money to invest on your behalf having never met me. And suppose you'd read a few of the columns I'd written in a newspaper and i seemed like a nice chap. Would you do pass over the funds? In my view there are occasions when his blog over steps the mark between objective opinion and implicit recommendation but that's a matter of opinion and we'd all see it differently. Anyone who posts on these boards by virtue of what they post is in effect making a suggestive recommendation to buy, sell or hold a particular stock. The major difference is we are not writing a column for a financial website neither are we holding ourselves up as the webs #1 small cap blogger or however paul puts it on the web page. Ego can be a very dangerous trait and come back to bite you. For the record i actually find his blog of interest and i'm sure he's a decent enough chap as you're not the first to suggest so. That doesn't prevent him from taking advantage of his position, even if he chooses not to. As for my own newsletter, the circulation is limited to those who have requested to follow my trading and those for whom i manage their portfolio which is largely my wider family and a number of close friends. Perhaps i neglected to point out that i manage their portfolios, my apologies. They are fully aware of the portfolio holdings and why i make my buy and sell decisions. This is a completely private portfolio and has no relevance to the debate. Generally speaking i declare all my trades on these boards including those that go against me from time to time. And i'd like to think i do it without resorting to language which could be construed as manipulative. I have no problem accepting criticism of my positions or thinking. Indeed you have just made such a comment which i respectfuly accept. Equally i feel i have the right to make the same points with due respect. Taking aside the fact that he seems a very nice chap the manner in which Paul operates lacks clarity indeed it's quite opaque which leaves him very much open to criticism. End of rant! woody
woodcutter: Paul Scott underwhelmed hxxp:// Not sure what to make of this chap and his small cap report. He maintains it's not a tip sheet yet when you monitor the share price movements on some of the stocks he reports on after the event there's clearly some investors who are following his lead. Hopefully they were wise enough to avoid his early TUNG suggestions. Personally i feel he shouldn't be declaring whether he holds a position or not just commenting on the results. It's hard to see how gullible investors aren't persuaded by the reports. Like most of us sometimes he picks winners and other times they're pretty poor. Each to their own. I guess ANP may look pretty expensive but the drive to remove antibiotics from animal feed is only going to increase and the move away from lower margin products is the right strategy. It's a matter of perspective. I guess if you're already invested for sometime then you continue to hold and buy dips, as i do. Perhaps taking the plunge at this point may be higher risk. Having top sliced and bought back on occassions i guess i'm close to tripling my original investment here. So perhaps i'm a little biased. It's a business with a very good manangement team and that counts for a lot imv. aimho woody
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