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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Type | Share ISIN | Share Description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anpario Plc | LSE:ANP | London | Ordinary Share | GB00B3NWT178 | ORD 23P |
| Price Change | % Change | Share Price | Shares Traded | Last Trade
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.00 | 1.32% | 385.00 | 89,737 | 15:06:51 |
| Bid Price | Offer Price | High Price | Low Price | Open Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 380.00 | 390.00 | 387.50 | 380.00 | 380.00 | |
| Industry Sector | Turnover | Profit | EPS - Basic | PE Ratio | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pesticides, Agric Chems, Nec | 31M | 2.53M | 0.1241 | 31.02 | 77.38M |
| Last Trade Time | Trade Type | Trade Size | Trade Price | Currency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:15:31 | O | 30,000 | 380.00 | GBX |
| Date | Time | Source | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/11/2024 | 07:00 | UK RNS | Anpario PLC Total Voting Rights |
| 30/9/2024 | 06:00 | UK RNS | Anpario PLC Acquisition of Bio-Vet Inc. |
| 13/9/2024 | 06:00 | UK RNS | Anpario PLC Notice of Investor Presentation |
| 11/9/2024 | 09:28 | ALNC |  Anpario interim profit jumps 50% higher, as Middle East sales surge |
| 11/9/2024 | 06:00 | UK RNS | Anpario PLC Interim results |
| 14/8/2024 | 10:22 | UK RNS | Anpario PLC Director/PDMR Shareholding |
| 18/7/2024 | 06:00 | UK RNS | Anpario PLC Block listing Interim Review |
| 25/6/2024 | 13:34 | UK RNS | Anpario PLC Result of AGM |
| 25/6/2024 | 12:02 | ALNC | IN BRIEF: Anpario confident despite soft US and Australia trading |
| 25/6/2024 | 06:00 | UK RNS | Anpario PLC AGM Statement |
Anpario (ANP) Share Charts1 Year Anpario Chart |
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1 Month Anpario Chart |
Intraday Anpario Chart |
| Date | Time | Title | Posts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/12/2024 | 17:46 | ANPARIO (formerly Kiotech) | 1,716 |
| 09/9/2020 | 09:03 | Anpario - Natural animal feed producer and distributor in over 80 countries. | 1 |
| 04/11/2008 | 10:58 | Appian Technology | 1 |
| Trade Time | Trade Price | Trade Size | Trade Value | Trade Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17:15:00 | 380.00 | 30,000 | 114,000.00 | O |
| 17:15:00 | 380.10 | 30,000 | 114,030.00 | O |
| 15:15:33 | 388.50 | 500 | 1,942.50 | O |
| 15:06:37 | 382.50 | 130 | 497.25 | O |
| 15:00:55 | 383.00 | 2,500 | 9,575.00 | O |
| Top Posts |
|---|
Posted at 11/11/2024 11:39 by pireric Beginning to feel like the market has started to digest the earnings upgrade cycle here. That has taken the budget to move out of the way and some publicity.Based on recent historical multiples, you can easily make a claim for 16x forward earnings here being entirely reasonable (and very far from being the high end of recent years' ranges), which is broadly around 400p. Although my expectation is the January trading update will bring with it more earnings upgrades and the share price by the end of next year will bring closer to that £5 mark. They seem to be trading in a sweet spot on the core business with some of the business initiatives and Bio-Vet a good story on top that I'd argue are each capable of pretty meaningful earnings upgrades in their own right Eric Edit, to give some actual numbers based on history: 3 year average forward PE is 20.1x 5 year average is 21.3x Even the 1 year average is 17.1x 2018-2019 average is 21.1x 2016-2019 average is 19.6x So can see picking 16x to get to 400p is actually rather conservative based on ANPs own history and if the market is willing to credit 17-20x again even on its current broker estimates (id argue quite conservative), that would be 420 to 492p. I remain of the view that there is a path for ANP to deliver towards 30p of EPS in 2025 |
Posted at 08/11/2024 19:52 by pireric Yes it was tipped as a Buy by Simon Thompson in the Alpha column of Investors Chronicle. A positive take overall: Some errors made with the financial figures and therefore the valuation framework though, as he didn't deduct the employee benefit trust (akin to treasury shares) when doing market cap and enterprise value calculations. That is something we've discussed in prior pages here (post #1683) per an investor question. If I correct for that with a somewhat conservative share count, his implied valuation would broadly be closer to 475p (rather than the 420p cited). Quite a well written piece overall, and tagged onto the earnings upgrade cycle ANP has been on. Doesn't have more of a forward looking take around Shore Capital's forecasts, more just a call based on the forecasts out there in the market. My strong view continues to be that there is more likely to be good upside to the current forecasts as they seem quite conservatively struck on operating leverage and the potential outcome to the second half of 2024. And no accommodations made for if any of the bigger strategic bets ANP is making coming off It is still good to see some recognition of what's happening at Anpario and the investment story taking place here. Eric |
Posted at 30/10/2024 20:27 by c3479z eric,a more considered appraisal would be that tax is now payable on death at 20% so budget was a shocker, no guarantee that the rate won't be increased at subsequent budgets. Some positive short-term reaction in the share prices could indicate relief that qualifying AIM stocks retain a minor advantage over fully-listed for the time being... |
Posted at 21/10/2024 22:16 by pireric With all due respect Ram, I'd be confident in saying that I've done substantially more research on this stock than Paul Scott or the average bypassing commenter on stocko. I have previously read the comments you refer to on Stockopedia.However, I actually prefer that to be the case when there are many who are less convinced as that's how you drive share price upside in stocks. As the company continues to deliver, and those who were more sceptical warm to the story and the earnings multiple recovers/inflates. I'd be more concerned if this stock is where it is and everyone was universally bullish. But let's be real, most small cap investors have never even heard of Anpario, so it's miles off the radar. Re: my views; aside from the Shore Capital broker, I'm not sure anyone else has really gone to any great lengths to elucidate the earnings upgrade cycle, let alone the technical one that has been at play since early this year. Feel free to cycle through my posts on this forum since March which go into that in depth. I understand the risks and opportunities in the story. That is what feeds my opinion that this will be a rewarding next forthcoming period for shareholders. As always, time will tell and will the arbiter of who is right and wrong, so we'll see in a year or two's time! Reading back your comments, it seems like the scepticism is around management not around the business or the opportunity. Surely the way to gain knowledge around that is to email them or speak to them. I am very comfortable with their forward mentality, their incentivisation, their industry knowledge, and their ability to deliver. Frankly, even the Bio-Vet deal is a tick in my book for execution on the deal structure and deal terms, and then we can judge the delivery over time. And also Nate Haas @ Bio-Vet seems like a strong person to have within the business. I don't think you have yet unless the functionality on ADVFN doesn't work (wouldn't be the first time), but if you want to, do DM me and I'll provide you with the management's contact details and then it may be worth sending them a couple of questions if you have a question or a few you want to address (beyond what they've done on the IMC already) Eric |
Posted at 15/10/2024 08:54 by pireric You need to exclude the employee benefit trust shares (c. 3.7 million) when calculating the market cap as those are akin to treasury shares.At these share price levels therefore the interims are a safe bet for the share count: the 16.7m of undiluted, and 16.8m of diluted 16.7m * 310p = £51.8m undiluted market cap, fractionally higher in a diluted context. So this is the figure to use that has the most relevance today At 500p more unvested shares come into play as they're in the money, so if it were to get to 500p, you'd want to use 16.7m of undiluted and 18.1m of diluted share count (gap between the two maybe narrower if some of those exercised and issued). Anpario provided a table for this in their IMC presentation; if you want to dream, but just to provide the sensitivity, at 650p the diluted share count would be 18.6m. But this also gives you the context that the 20m number (i.e. the issued share cap) is not the correct one to be using. Eric P.S. the earnings per share numbers in consensus use a 17.9m share count... let's just say that's clearly very conservative as you're going to need the share price over the rest of this year into next year to be close to £5 for that to make sense. So my view; they'll beat on revenues, they'll beat on operating margin and they'll beat on share count -> all good for them beating on EPS! |
Posted at 01/10/2024 16:00 by pireric Rule number 1 of small caps, if you have conviction in your own thoughts and estimates, back them, because price discovery is usually very poor (unlike larger caps where I think that conclusion might be more valid). It was blatantly obvious at 235p that forecasts were too low, and yet it was like trying to sell a mouldy fish to some pretty smart investors.It's equally obvious to me right now that this is undervalued from a multiple perspective (at trough levels by quite some margin) and that estimates are still far too low. So I'll keep buying. Yesterday was a 9% eps upgrade and the share price reaction so far has been low single digit %, so it has derated Come back in 12 months, but all paths (barring an economic meltdown) lead to 450p+ on a 12 month view IMO. Very confident of that, which would put this probably in the top 5% of UK small caps for performance, I suspect Also generally some buyers strike on UK small caps ahead of the Budget. Plus the overall market today was pretty uninspiring. Would like to think that investors can recognise that EAH is a very weak readacross but then again the average general small cap investor probably doesn't know the differences if they haven't looked at them before Eric |
Posted at 30/9/2024 06:21 by pireric An acquisition announced this morning of Bio-Vetwww.bio-vet.com Sounds like an interesting and good quality bolt-on deal. Lots of product and market synergies. EPS enhancing to boot. And paying a very good multiple. - Bio-Vet is also very dairy/cows focused, which aligns well with their diversification objectives - Bio-Vet has minimal presence outside of the US, so a chance to shove the Bio-Vet products through ANP's global sales channels - 6.5x EV/EBITDA multiple paid looks very attractive - "the global animal feed probiotic market is expected to grow at c.9% CAGR to CY28 (>$7bn market) and is >4x larger than the global phytogenic feed additives market (MarketsandMarkets). Shore Capital have boosted 2025 EPS forecast to 24.6p with still £7m of net cash at that point This firmly puts my 30p potential EPS for 2025 into play, at which point I'd expect a share price much closer to 500p. Setup continues to look very attractive Can see the stock up nicely today given the 2025 EPS upgrade is high single digit %. Forecast stacks that investors will see are now also projecting very healthy top and bottom line growth for the next 18 months which should support a return to historical multiples (high teens PE). Think its one of the most interesting and attractive UK small caps. Eric |
Posted at 27/9/2024 06:45 by pireric Thanks, ShanklinWould disagree personally on whether the strategy is right or wrong as I just think it's the nature of the markets they operate in. Some countries only have £Xm of revenue potential today. We've seen the effects of what can happen in individual species when there is something that is a bit more challenging one year to next. Doesn't matter if you have the world's best swine products if the entire swine supply chain is moderately screwed one year because of a type of flu, or pork prices are through the floor. Agricultural markets almost by definition are a little up and down, but the brand aspect is maybe the bit that matters most for ANP. Once those brands have their market positions then they should be relatively more self-sustaining for re-ordering. The reasons certain geographies move one year to the next can be a whole host of reasons, as we heard, and ANP already has 80+ geographies presence. These are high value additives into niche areas of the market so £33m of revenue is not completely meaningless I would suspect in the scale of the growing global TAM; it's also why there aren't 500 competitors here. They already have a solid level of diversification, but I'd argue: - why shouldn't they tweak the core formulations they have to make them suitable for other markets? E.g. Orego-Stim Forte being an aquaculture version of the core Orego-Stim - If you've got a winning natural pellet binder, why not try to sell into both aqua and on-land markets. And if it's really that good with fewer residues and parties are interested, why not hold those trials to test the waters in completely ex-animal markets (heating) - Regardless of the above, not every trial/test will necessarily work, so there may sound to be a lot of trials at the moment, but maybe only a handful will reach prime-time and become meaningful - Sales channels primarily for some of these new growth areas are to the leading producers or distributors rather than trying day 1 to mop up 1000s of small producers. I just don't think most of these targeted initiatives are all that disruptive to management time in their early phases. They're trial-dependent, and then you just progress with the parties you've trialled with, and then go to major other producers. It's not like you need to establish a complex immediate supply chain, create completely different new manufacturing orientations, there's no need for aftermarket support for this type of product, or to go and do huge marketing campaigns day 1. Or alternatively, entering the Saudi market... has that really required very significant heavy lifting from ANP? Appointing a couple of distributors and they've done the heavy lifting on market access. India definitely has taken more meetings with Saife VetMed and structuring the relationship, but that's now up and running and if anything, that's taking some of the strain/burden away from ANP in tackling that market Also, flip the equation. £36m this year let's say, with 100 employees and not a whole lot of marketing cost at all reflects the strong efficiency of the business. The hope will be from me that this gets towards a £50m organic business without a commensurate increase in the employee base because of the operating leverage. Eric |
Posted at 13/9/2024 06:09 by igoe104 Someone was asking for a investor meet.Anpario plc (AIM: ANP), the independent manufacturer of natural sustainable animal feed additives for animal health, nutrition and biosecurity, is pleased to announce that Richard Edwards, Chief Executive Officer, and Marc Wilson, Group Finance Director, will provide a live presentation relating to the Company's unaudited interim results for the six months to 30 June 2024 via Investor Meet Company on 25 September 2024, 15:00 BST. The presentation is open to all existing and potential shareholders. Questions can be submitted pre-event via your Investor Meet Company dashboard up until 24 September 2024, 09:00 BST, or at any time during the live presentation. Investors may sign up to Investor Meet Company for free and add to meet Anpario plc via: hxxps://www.investor Investors who already follow Anpario plc on the Investor Meet Company platform will automatically be invited |
Posted at 20/8/2024 07:16 by pireric Hopefully the IMC can shed light. I get the sense its a few things in the mixing pot1) general demand bounceback after a soft industry demand year, pockets of distributor destocking. Also price normalisation in some raw materials areas which would've priced out demand last year. E.g. check out formic acid 2) new products ramping up, such as those mentioned. Algae, Mastercube etc 3) mix shift towards the champion brands in the mix like Orego-Stim which continued to grow well last year but were offset by other areas 4) lower raw mat prices enabling ANP to be better price competitive in some lower GM areas 5) potential for new volume ramps in lower margin gear like what the note mentions in China contingent on positive outcomes of some of those fields trials Hopefully some of that will be evident in the first half numbers Pleased that the management team are being proactive on building shareholders and analyst relations with the site visit and now IMC. CFO Marc Wilson is (outside of quiet period as youd expect) also quite easy to liase with. Still have the sense that ANP is well off the radar and am very confident in what the next year will bring for shareholders from these levels Eric |
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