Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Anpario Plc LSE:ANP London Ordinary Share GB00B3NWT178 ORD 23P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.00 0.0% 330.00 39,952 08:00:00
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
320.00 340.00 330.00 330.00 330.00
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Food Producers 28.28 4.55 19.53 16.9 77
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
16:24:25 O 740 336.345 GBX

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Date Time Title Posts
13/10/201920:12ANPARIO (formerly Kiotech)1,168
04/11/200810:58Appian Technology1

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Anpario (ANP) Most Recent Trades

Trade Time Trade Price Trade Size Trade Value Trade Type
2019-10-18 15:24:26336.357402,488.95O
2019-10-18 14:52:25330.0020,00066,000.00O
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Anpario (ANP) Top Chat Posts

Anpario Daily Update: Anpario Plc is listed in the Food Producers sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker ANP. The last closing price for Anpario was 330p.
Anpario Plc has a 4 week average price of 319p and a 12 week average price of 319p.
The 1 year high share price is 435p while the 1 year low share price is currently 305p.
There are currently 23,310,173 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 8,388 shares. The market capitalisation of Anpario Plc is £76,923,570.90.
vprt: Very encouraging report - the long term profitable growth story is intact: 1. Credit to management for including details which show exactly when and where the sales setbacks were - and their largely one-off nature is obvious, especially in China. Brilliant growth in USA (up 31% with California to come), Spain (29%), Australia (45%). Explicit management confidence in return to sales growth in 2019 despite several temporary obstacles still hampering them - so when China comes back (after swine fever and Trump trade tantrums) and Brexit is done, revenues will really take off. 2. Lots of operational progress: Product launches, adding internet sales channel for SME customers, increasing production capacity (liquids), opening new subsidiaries (Mexico, Turkey). All of these operational steps forward are being delivered whilst at the same time boosting the bottom line by 34% to a net profit of £4m! 3. Current trading (2019) is ahead of 2018 - that's what I wanted to hear today This is a high and increasing quality business that deserves a good multiple given its execution and room to grow with a long term outlook that is backed by several supportive trends. I am a happy holder and delighted that I have used the share price decline in recent months to make this one of my top holdings.
vprt: Many thanks for sharing the email exchange. And Digital Look seems useful to catch up on (some, presumably belated) broker forecasts. But this is NOT very comforting from a private investor perspective! We should get the SAME info as they are feeding to the brokers. What is stopping them from doing an RNS with a rough range for revenues going forward? Look at e.g. Purplebricks (PURP) - where I am thankfully not a shareholder - it just tanked yesterday after slashing revenue guidance with one rough and wide revenue range being replaced by another. Fair - everybody was told the same news at the same time. This shoddy information sharing treats private investors as second class citizens - this is something management should be confronted with again: Either stop giving such selective "whisper" guidance to anyone, or give it to everybody. Management might "save face" by revenue/profit warnings & upgrades being unofficial - but that is NOT something only some (small, private) investors should be paying for. Also, even if we for a moment assume that we CAN'T receive the same information (which I don't accept!), we should at least be told exactly WHEN such sensitive info is being given by the company to brokers - so that we can stay AWAY from trading the stock until that new info is reflected in the share price (after brokers have "published" reports to their clients). If I can't have the same information, at least I don't want to be the sucker on the other side of the trade of people who have it! I already feel cheated, to be frank...
vprt: Cerrito, well done, please post if you get a response. I attended the AGM on 28/6 2018 (except the tour) and this topic was actually discussed in the meeting. They read out the AGM statement (which referred to market expectations), and someone asked a question similar to yours - about guidance or sharing the outlook. The answer (from memory) was that they have not been giving guidance, that they have to refer to "market" as opposed to "management" expectations, and that they were going to look into what can be shared in the future. The guy from Peel Hunt unhelpfully said that they could not share their research. So it might help you to know that they have promised publicly to check on this. tailgunner - if you believe that revenue growth will pick back up again - as I do - then stop complaining about low share price and take advantage of it by topping up. My take is that the changes they are making to the sales approach (more direct, less use of distributors, getting involved with large users with science / experiments etc) will pay off both in terms of revenue growth and (continued!) margin growth. And with minimal liquidity and market makers (if there are any worth mentioning?) who are very sensitive to any buying or selling, the share price moves a lot on tiny volumes with an infuriatingly wide spread most of the time. Furthermore lazy investors look at the headline P/E ratio without taking into account the oodles of net cash, of course earning near nada interest these days but still worth 15-18% of the market cap, so effectively exaggerating the "real" P/E of the underlying business, and also making the return on capital look less attractive if not adjusted. The low share price is Mr Market offering you a great deal, so take it! (And take some profit when everybody is excited again if you feel overexposed)
tailgunner: More shares bought than a good margin.....this share price savaging is beginning to stink....maybe company quite happy... .predators maybe circling now.... .ripe for a takeover.......aim market corrupt as get out.... I'm nearly back where I was 10 years ago ffs!!!!!
tailgunner: Why aren't company bringing out a " we have noted the companies share price yada yada, and know of no reason yada yada"......
cerrito: They must be enjoying the current FX rates. I see that roughly half their receivables are in US and my reading of the footnotes of the AR is that they hedge most of them and we need to brace ourselves for a negative impact in the Interims- as foreshadowed on the AGM statement- and a much more positive second half. If Downing ( or indeed any other big shareholder) want to sell more, it will put a strain on the share price I checked to see if either of the Downing Funds are/were forced sellers. Downing One VCT had at March a market value of £ 2.6m in ANP and the Micro Cap Fund at the end of January £1.4 m in ANP and both funds appear to be robust. The current share price is tantalising.
hiddendepths: steve - Yes, I meant Downing. This share is thinly traded and 1% of the stock has a disproportionate effect on the share price. For all I know, Downing are getting out completely. If so, it'll take quite a while. I agree - probably fair value around here. The P/E (PEG nearly 2) and div yield (a smidge over 1.55%) do not represent much of a buy case. Still, I like the cash generative properties of the company and the business itself. Even the large percentage of overseas earnings is a bull point ahead of sterling risk over a bodged Brexit. I'm not getting back in yet but am watching closely for a re-entry point.
nocton: TY for your analysis, Cerrito. Yes I went to the AGM and there was a very good turnout - about 20 shareholders I should think and the (small) room was full. After the AGM there was a good set of presentations by directors and staff, following by a tour of the plant. I asked about the remuneration figures. The explanation was that a deferred bonus from the previous year had been paid and the basic salary had not changed. It was agreed that if the breakdown of the remuneration had been given, as is best practice, then the matter would be clear. Apparently next year it will be required. Re cash and spending, they have installed a fully automated bag packer which is working flat out and already paying back well; they are going to reorganise the warehouse to make space for a liquid/bottle filler thus bringing that in house to give faster response times and improve margins. Then the final pallet packing will be automated. R&D spending is significant and targeted at clearly improving the business. In the last 18 months they have appointed a new R&D manager and a Corporate development manager, both with good technical qualifications and experience. As someone who has been involved in industrial R&D during my career, I thought they had the right approach in terms of testing their products on animals, both in-house and in collaboration with customers and universities. They are trying to get clearly away from the 'snake oil'/'muck & magic' idea of their products to show proven performance for the customer. You say: "How do they see growth coming in future years? Better products? More sales penetration in the main markets? I see that per page 9 they see themselves as having four product categories, Can we have revenue and operating profit broken down into these four categories?" There was some discussion about this and about breakdown by country. They do not want to give too much detail as most of their competitors - not the giants - are private companies who don't give this info of course. They are certainly looking at improving sales penetration, partly by owning their own distributors and partly by train their other distributors in the technical merits of their products, which includes the R&D providing clear technical support. What I can say is that when going round the warehouse, products were going to, among others: Iran, Mexico, Kuwait, Ecuador, which gives a flavour of their markets, the large majority export. All pallets in the warehouse were going out the following day - they make to order and do not have product in stock. Re Brexit, it was not discussed at the AGM or after, but I spoke to the CEO during the factory tour. Just 14% of exports go to the EU, so not a big risk. As all are approved under EU legislation he does not see any serious problems after Brexit - perhaps a bit more paperwork. with their experience in exporting to countries such as Iran, I should suggest that EU paperwork will not be a problem. Overall, I cam away impressed and positive about the future. The directors and staff were welcoming and positive and the plans for the company looked sound and feasible. They could perhaps double production on the present site. IMO the share price fall reflects the high PE and nothing specially positive in the AGM statement - there was discussion about the lack of anything concrete - what are "full year management expectations". The usual trading speculation on the run-up to an AGM and profit taking after a good run over the last year. Let's see what the Sept interims show.
cerrito: Too bad Nocton that things have come up my end and I will not be able to join you;let’s hope that you are not by yourself as that can be pretty hard work. I have been through the AR; the big question on which they are silent is what they plan to do with the cash mountain; of course good that they have not made ill judged acquisitions and not keen on them doing buybacks with the current share price- Note FWIW that current marcap at £110 m compared to book net worth of £30m. and roughly 3.3x 2017 sales. I personally found the AR rather unsatisfying. Yes they give a clear breakdown of geographic sales and profitability but we get no clear ideas as to what their product lines are-I see that Orego-Stim once again had a whole page extolling it and I assume therefore is the lead product but we learn just represents 25pc of sales in China? Sales breakdown between diary and non diary? How do they see growth coming in future years? Better products? More sales penetration in the main markets? I see that per page 9 they see themselves as having four product categories, Can we have revenue and operating profit broken down into these four categories? How much does new sales growth depend on R&D? Note that the amount of R&D tax credits received had gone up from £250k in 2015 to £330 k in 2017 which suggests R & D expenditure adequate, Note total personnel expenses were £4.4m in 2015, £5m in 2016 and £6.3m in 2017. This reflects both Executive Board remuneration and the new direct sales force as well as people like the new post of Corporate Development Director. Good to see amount of trade receivables down despite increased sales. Continue to be comfortable with the inventory figures but do note increase since 2015 year end. Gone through the Goodwill) intangible figure-ground a quite high third of net worth. Discount rate is a rather high 12pc which for me and s good. Rather surprised to see that even if growth was a negative 15pc then there would be adequate goodwill cover. Many things to get one’s teeth into and would have liked to be there, and if the meeting is on site you get a better feel for what makes the company tick. PS Re reading my March 7 post, I am rather surprised price is so high. Be interesting to see if there is an AGM statement. PPS Well done to them on US success. I am interested to know how they are getting on with the big US integrators
glasshalfull: ANP Share price still defies gravity despite earnings downgrades. I saw martinthebrave's post looking for clarity on earnings for the coming year and revisited my detailed post on earnings in March 2016 (post 910) where I talked of earnings stalling & intimated that I felt the share price was up with events at c.250p at the time. Shares are (+67p) since my what do I know!!!??? The share price was 134p in March 2013 when they released 2012 figures, and had risen to 305p when they released 2016 results on the 8th March 2017, or rise of 128% in 4-years. This is during a period when earnings have only risen marginally and are forecast to tread water this year & next. Worth clarifying that I still believe Anpario is a quality company & hope to reinvest at some point. Just don't feel I should be paying up in anticipation of growth 18 months away, especially when earnings have been fairly static for the last 4 years which I describe below. Looking back to post 910 a year ago, Peel Hunt lowered 2017 estimates from £5.3m PBT to £4.6m which translated into the forecasts for adj EPS falling from 20.7p to 18.1p. PH indicated that this would result in ANP achieving 12% earnings growth in 2017. In a March 2017 PH lowered 2017 estimates yet again, this time from the £4.6m to £4.3m or 17.7p adj EPS to 16.9p. So we now have a (-4%) earnings contraction in 2017. Singers has an even lower forecast of 14.7p adj EPS for 2017 My point is that ANP has essentially treaded water - in terms of earnings - for a number of years now whatever way one cares to look at it, with forecasts suggesting that earnings will continue in a similar vein for the next 18 months. Anpario Adj EPS: - 2012 - 15.1p EPS 2013 - 13.1p EPS 2014 - 14.8p EPS 2015 - 16p EPS 2016 - 16.6p EPS Consensus forecasts: - 2017 - 15.8P EPS 2018 - 15.4p EPS Worth pointing out that cash has risen from £3.7m at year end 2012 to £11.1m at end of 2016, but the dividend has only risen a meagre 2.5p (from 3p to 5.5p) in 4 years. So in conclusion, I recognise the steps management are taking to invest in subsidiaries & build relationships that will hopefully drives sales & earnings in the future. However, as I've discussed above, I happen to believe that the current 317p share price & PER of over 20 is simply too high. If ANP was churning out consistent 10%-15% earnings growth YoY then I would agree with the current rating, but in 2016 they produced marginal earnings growth with a dividend yield of only 1.7% despite strong cash generation. Earnings are forecast to fall back this year and next, so paying up 18/24 months in advance for growth doesn't appeal to me. Hopefully I'll join shareholders again as growing earnings materialise, or in circumstances where I consider that the share price has fallen back to a reasonable rating. Only my tuppenceworth FWIW. Best wishes to holders. Kind regards, GHF
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