Anpario Share Discussion Threads

[pireric] 21/10/2024 22:31

Reposting this vs 1688 so company specific comments are most prominent*

FYI some additional comments from the ANP team and detail on Bio-Vet provided here, versus the RNS release:


Dr Nate Haas of Bio-Vet also did a 2 minute segment at the World Dairy Expo in a podcast for Mid-West Farm Report, on Spotify. Not too much to flag but note that he flagged Bio-Vet had been looking at the opportunity [i.e. the ANP tie-up] for the past couple of years. And the process to find the best partner possible started over 7 years ago.



Eric

[pireric] 21/10/2024 22:16

With all due respect Ram, I'd be confident in saying that I've done substantially more research on this stock than Paul Scott or the average bypassing commenter on stocko. I have previously read the comments you refer to on Stockopedia.

However, I actually prefer that to be the case when there are many who are less convinced as that's how you drive share price upside in stocks. As the company continues to deliver, and those who were more sceptical warm to the story and the earnings multiple recovers/inflates. I'd be more concerned if this stock is where it is and everyone was universally bullish. But let's be real, most small cap investors have never even heard of Anpario, so it's miles off the radar.

Re: my views; aside from the Shore Capital broker, I'm not sure anyone else has really gone to any great lengths to elucidate the earnings upgrade cycle, let alone the technical one that has been at play since early this year. Feel free to cycle through my posts on this forum since March which go into that in depth.

I understand the risks and opportunities in the story. That is what feeds my opinion that this will be a rewarding next forthcoming period for shareholders. As always, time will tell and will the arbiter of who is right and wrong, so we'll see in a year or two's time!

Reading back your comments, it seems like the scepticism is around management not around the business or the opportunity. Surely the way to gain knowledge around that is to email them or speak to them. I am very comfortable with their forward mentality, their incentivisation, their industry knowledge, and their ability to deliver. Frankly, even the Bio-Vet deal is a tick in my book for execution on the deal structure and deal terms, and then we can judge the delivery over time. And also Nate Haas @ Bio-Vet seems like a strong person to have within the business.

I don't think you have yet unless the functionality on ADVFN doesn't work (wouldn't be the first time), but if you want to, do DM me and I'll provide you with the management's contact details and then it may be worth sending them a couple of questions if you have a question or a few you want to address (beyond what they've done on the IMC already)

Eric

[rutlandram] 21/10/2024 20:03

Hello Eric
I’m not sure if you subscribe to Stockopedia but it might be an idea for you to do so if you don’t, to help you get a more balanced view of ANP.
It would be inappropriate of me to pass on the comments on Stockopedia regarding ANP, given it is a paid for facility.
However, when the company last updated the market on trading a month or so ago,the underlying theme from Stockopedia was acknowledgement of the opportunity but general scepticism regarding the capability to deliver.
This included a detailed response from one of the most respected commentators on uk small caps.
It would be good for you to take a look I feel.

[pireric] 18/10/2024 22:46

Hi Ram,

I don't agree at all here.

The progress up until 2021 had been fine; maybe a touch slower depending on the year. But you look at the foundations that have been put in place, around the automation of the plant, about the initiation of various of the business development initiatives (some of which can take years to play out, but are starting to come to fruition). With the first sizeable and excellent looking M&A deal in many many years that itself likely took years of gestation.

And then I encourage you to actually go and speak to Richard and Marc. Both their willingness to increase shareholder engagement, particularly at this exact point in time when they have an excellent story to tell. IMC presentations, the podcast with Lord Lee. And then their openness to speak to ordinary private investors.

If you have even half the belief and conviction that I do that this will be a towards 30p (potentially +) EPS business in 2025, then honestly, the call to shake up management makes next to no sense, as the stock will probably be back up at that £5 level. Of course I'm biased, but I think this will be one of the very best performing UK small caps over the next 12-18 months, and a lot of that is down to Richard and the broader company's initiatives.

All I can suggest is that if you have concerns, engage with the management team again directly. I'm guessing you may not have done so, but if you need contact details, feel free to send me a private message.

Eric

[rutlandram] 18/10/2024 19:44

You do wonder if this business really needs an injection of new blood and energy at the top end. It seems clear that there is a great opportunity but my confidence in management grasping the nettle is not high. Twenty years and counting does not suggest so
I don’t suffer from unconscious bias with this share ( or any ). It’s clear that the opportunity will be passed by without changing the guard imo. Which is not to say the incumbent guys have not done an ok job.
Lord Lee might have done alright here but that’s in the past - we need to focus on the future

[pireric] 17/10/2024 08:45

You're welcome - this is what discussion boards are ideally for (Q&A/debate)! And yes, completely fine with me. It's mainly the management board (Richard in particular) with those incentivisation options and you can tell from the Investors Chronicle podcast that he 'gets it' with regards to shareholder value creation from here.

Eric

[whalehq] 15/10/2024 17:23

Thanks Eric. It seems a simple question has a not so simple answer.

Long story short it seems there will be dilution should the share price do well. Seems ok to me on the face of it.

[pireric] 15/10/2024 08:54

You need to exclude the employee benefit trust shares (c. 3.7 million) when calculating the market cap as those are akin to treasury shares.

At these share price levels therefore the interims are a safe bet for the share count: the 16.7m of undiluted, and 16.8m of diluted

16.7m * 310p = £51.8m undiluted market cap, fractionally higher in a diluted context. So this is the figure to use that has the most relevance today

At 500p more unvested shares come into play as they're in the money, so if it were to get to 500p, you'd want to use 16.7m of undiluted and 18.1m of diluted share count (gap between the two maybe narrower if some of those exercised and issued). Anpario provided a table for this in their IMC presentation; if you want to dream, but just to provide the sensitivity, at 650p the diluted share count would be 18.6m. But this also gives you the context that the 20m number (i.e. the issued share cap) is not the correct one to be using.

Eric

P.S. the earnings per share numbers in consensus use a 17.9m share count... let's just say that's clearly very conservative as you're going to need the share price over the rest of this year into next year to be close to £5 for that to make sense. So my view; they'll beat on revenues, they'll beat on operating margin and they'll beat on share count -> all good for them beating on EPS!

[whalehq] 15/10/2024 08:47

I’ve got the following (from the latest interims)

Basic weighted average no of shares(diluted):
June 24: 16,663,131 (16,768,170)
June 23: 20,648,766



My figures below mu

[cerrito] 15/10/2024 08:35

Thete are 20,313k shares in issue

[whalehq] 15/10/2024 08:27

Just to be clear the interviewer mentioned £65m

[whalehq] 15/10/2024 08:25

I was listening to the recent podcast on this company (with the CEO) and heard the market cap quoted at 65m.
Back then google and stockopedia did say c.65m but I calculated it a fair bit lower when I look at shares outstanding.(says c61m today)

Now Im probably missing something but is today’s quoted market cap on google incorrect? According to my notes: 16,768,170 x 3 = early 50s(I probably included share options here)

I know they bought back shares last year through a medium I’m unfamiliar with so was expecting that is why there is a disparity.

[someuwin] 15/10/2024 08:00

Not much stock available. I can get a quote for £3k. but not £4k.

[deanowls] 14/10/2024 14:52

Don’t be afraid of AI the prime minister says. I’m guessing he doesn’t know that trains and metros drive themselves these days whilst awarding pay increases. We need to look to technology and what it can help us with and put people where we can boost productivity and manufacturing.

[shanklin] 14/10/2024 10:43

I can't say I share your confidence in Labour. Only complete morons would have an Investment Summit before the Shock and Awe tax rising budget they have promised

[c3479z] 14/10/2024 09:17

Eric

think your argument ignores all the AIM family stocks LTHM, NICL, RWS, JHD, CML, YNG, TON, MBH and others and on AQUIS Companies like SHEP and THW, ADB,

Perhaps the family holdings are in Trusts like GDWN's family holdings but wouldn't put it past the gov't to tackle this type of ownership also...they're desperate for money which looks like being poured into public sector, this needs reform to boost productivity rather than extra cash...

[pireric] 14/10/2024 07:46

Answer is probably no to that. If anything, for AIM stocks (not this one) that had heavy IHT fund investment, you can imagine a world where it's a little akin to those funds being wound down, and they just suppress price performance for a while.

I find the whole 20-30% drops on AIM stocks as complete sensationalism from the small cap brokers who know that the UK market is slowly fading away, and don't want to lose the next string of IPO deals and so they are lobbying hard against the government making this change. Are we actually going to see those level of drops in IHT-fund-heavy AIM stocks on October 30th? In my view, absolutely not.

Small cap commentators in the UK have not been helpful as it seems many have left their brain at home when talking about the risks into the budget, while also positioning themselves with a big cash pile on the sidelines that they hope to redeploy and take advantage of price weakness.

Most individual PIs I don't really think care about IHT when buying AIM stocks, but there were some funds set up over the past decade and heavily pushing that tax break.

Eric

[cerrito] 14/10/2024 07:43

Thanks for sharing that research pireric.
I have a blindspot on Reeves and IHT.I can well see her removing the exemption for any future purchases which would remove demand going forward but if she were to remove the exemption completely would people immediately sell all their IHT holdings?
Part of my blindspot is that I have never considered IHT exemption when purchasing an AIM share

[pireric] 14/10/2024 07:29

I spent time over the weekend looking at the shareholder register composition. My takeaway is that there is basically minimal institutional investor exposure to IHT funds so I have minimal concern even if BPR changes.

- Unicorn AM hold it in their VCT fund
- Gresham House hold it in their VCT fund
- BGF Investment Management are not IHT related
- James Sharp & Co may be/probably is IHT related
- Foresight Group hold it in their VCT fund
- Sorbus Partners are not IHT related
- Castlefield Investments are not IHT related

There may be private individuals holding for IHT purposes, but we're not exactly talking overhang territory when we're referring to 0.1/0.2% of the share capital holders.

Eric

[pireric] 10/10/2024 14:59

JNEO and some other stocks like VLX have been hammered. But agree that it has not been uniform in every place. The volumes on today's move for example is higher than normal but not excessive. TFW also down sharply today

It's a bit irrelevant as whatever happens, the value of a business, it's value of cash flows, is completely unrelated to any of this budget noise. But annoying in the short term nonetheless. Or perhaps not as it's just an opportunity to buy more!

All that will happen if they do pass some of these rule changes is they'll further kill off the UK markets, with the better businesses bought out by global competitors.

At these levels it's on sub 12x 2025 P/E, and on my forecasts more like 10x with >10% of the market cap in cash, while growing profits at strong double digit % rates

The amusing thing is that the EPS consensus for ANP was actually upgraded over the last couple of days as Canaccord put in BioVet into their numbers.

Eric

[dodger777] 10/10/2024 14:44

Seems very excessive, Anpario seems to be getting harder hit than many others. Surprising after recent results and commentary.

[pireric] 10/10/2024 14:07

Pre budget panic selling getting a bit silly now. Vicious derating embedded into the stock now compared to pre the interim results. All because of shocking budget messaging

Eric