Anpario Share Discussion Threads

[cfro] 11/4/2023 07:15

25k bought by Mr Edwards.

[earwacks] 03/4/2023 23:36

Cerrito. You are clearly not the only one. The update in january was pretty clear about what the final was going to be and nothing too different about the published finals, other than details and outlook for next year. No telling how markets will react or for what reasons, which can be many, not least the tax year ending. They have upped the dividend which at todays price is over 5%. Would be amazed if that and the new tax year doesnt bring back more buyers. I would be looking to add a few more into my ISa on April6th. Food production is a massive global problem and pretty sure Anp will have a key roll in continuing to help that happen. The market currently, particularly Aim is pretty unpredictable, volatile and irrational. Terrified to get caught out and terrified to miss out. Generally less supply chain disruption. Container prices have fallen dramatically. Interest should be reigned in in the next few months.
It has been a frantic time following from pandemic, war, energy crisis, inflation, strikes, global politics, Brexit, european politics, bank crisis, global warming, earthquakes, tornados, flooding. Cant ever remember such a concoction of disruptive events converging in such a short space of time. Lets hope there is some calm after these storms. Gl all

[cerrito] 03/4/2023 21:06

I have to say I have misread this having bought quite a few on results day at 224 never expecting them to go below 200p.
I see that volume on results day alone was 580m (ie in just one day roughly combined volume of May and June last year) and last Friday was 150 m odd-not far off volume of whole month of July last year.
Surprised no TR1 RNS's.

[earwacks] 03/4/2023 19:42

Thanks fro. Yes I see you covered all those points. I originally invested when it was kiotech for about 2p! There was a share price consolidation and changed name to Anpario. Been in and out a about 3 three times so this is my forth tug. Usually sell too early but have always come away with something. I went to one of their first shareholder meetings . Me two other shareholders and the board! Richard is a fantastic ceo. He was project manager on the channel tunnel before Anp which he has steered from about 10 million market cap to 100 million and now back to this ridiculous price. It was their aim back then to build to 100 million and then sell. Seem to have held as long standing following of institutional holders and the infamous lord Lee. Dont think they would let it go for under 100 million. Think there is a bit of a clue with the former CFO trades only a month ago when she sold some shares and bought back into her Or hubbies ISA. Can’t have anticipated this reaction

[cfro] 03/4/2023 17:44

Welcome earwacks..

See my posts no.1430 and 1434 - all your points made. You are quite correct a 1% drop in revenue does not equate to the carnage we have in the share price.

What worries me right now is that we are very vulnerable to a predatory bid. I thought they were vulnerable at 600p let alone below 200p. If a potential acquirer was thinking about making a move then now is the perfect time for them. Don't look a gift horse and all that..

[earwacks] 03/4/2023 17:24

1 percent drop in revenue does not equate to 60 percent drop in share price. 25 percent drop in profit due to raw material cost inflation can and will be addressed. The ending of lock down in China and improved trading in Asia and potential in Americas more than off sets decline in bloody brexit Europe. absolute bargain at £1.89. Very grateful to be back in after a lot of patience and a long absence thanks to the absurdity of this market

[vprt] 28/3/2023 09:24

Not sure what Mr Market prefers (whisky, hot chocolate, prescription medicine and/or a hug?), but he must be feeling terrible at the moment, so please take good care of him if you come across him.

Yes, I just took advantage by topping up. No idea where the share price will go short term, and H1 results will probably be weak given the market turmoil (organic acid prices, volume decline), but in a couple of years I suspect 214p will look good.

[cfro] 28/3/2023 07:17

Good to see both the CFO and CEO purchase shares down here. Still awaiting the Chairwoman however.

[wjccghcc] 27/3/2023 11:34

Wasn’t me. I’ve never down liked a post. Different opinions are what make a market.

[cfro] 26/3/2023 09:54

You don't go round adjusting everything for inflation though. Don't forget every country has differing inflation rates that change constantly. If you did that you would just get yourself in such a tizz.

By the sounds of it your opinion certainly isn't mine which is quite the opposite in fact.

(Edit - i wonder whom gave the down-like Lol...)

[wjccghcc] 26/3/2023 09:14

Yes but revenues will be quite a bit lower when adjusted for inflation. It does seem they’re going backwards in real terms.

[cfro] 25/3/2023 10:42

Thought i would spend some time going through past years results (going back a few years) to be reminded of the sorts of figures the company was reporting way back when. Interesting to do a comparison between then and now:

The financial year 2014 stood out due to it's similar basic earning per share number of 15.6p for that year.
The revenues for that particular FY was £26.6m (a gain of only £0.6m from the year before despite favourable FX that year).
The net cash stood at £6.6m and the dividend was 4.5p.


Fast forward to today and we have eps about the same at 16p. Revenues now stand at £33.1m. Net cash of £13.6m (around 25% of market cap) and dividend of 7.35p. Hence decidedly better numbers all round from what the company was achieving back then (despite the profit warning).

...However, and this is the interesting bit, at the time the fy2014 results were published on March 4th 2015 the share price stood at 305p...

[cfro] 23/3/2023 10:03

That was one of the points i was making in my post above, with China re-opening it is quite obvious we will see quite possibly some really explosive growth come through.

[igoe104] 23/3/2023 09:42

Interesting to see EAH group are starting to see a recovery in Asia, their main business is antibiotics for pigs in China. Good to see this market place showing signs of life..

[pireric] 23/3/2023 09:39

Just FYI, group revenues were probably down 3-4% in constant currency terms

Appreciate the broader point. The stock just wasn't/isn't cheap though to allow investors to look through disappointments; quite far from it

Eric

[cfro] 23/3/2023 09:23

I said it yesterday but the key figure in the results is the revenues. They were only down by 1% to £33.1 from £33.4m in 2021. That is nothing in the great scheme of things and many seem to forget that last years sales were record breaking at that..

Far too many investors are focusing on the bottom line where margins have been squeezed. The company has such a diversified geographical spread that if one region is down another can be up, hence no reason as to why we cannot see higher margins once more.

Two extremely important regions are China and America. The former down by -6% was obviously hit by the covid lockdown restrictions. Not a lot could be done about that from the companies point of view but they are now re-opening and therefore no reason not expect growth in that region to really accelerate perhaps even seeing triple digit growth figures next year?

America grew by +19%. It is another important growth area for the company, with a lot to go for and is increasingly being recognised there too (to the extent any future bid could come from there?).

The UK was a major drag down by -36% due to loss of a major client. A turnaround here in the home market would make all the difference.

[wad collector] 22/3/2023 23:06

Sceptical , why would you add if you think this is a dead cat bounce?

[3800] 22/3/2023 16:20

"some time end of march" that certainly doesn't leave long cfro. Could you offer a link to that infomation please. I'm not a current shareholder but have been in the past but may buy a few shares just to look round the place.
3800

[cfro] 22/3/2023 15:32

cerrito/somerset lad,

I believe there is to be a shareholder get together and tour of the new facilities some time end of march (not sure exact date). Open to all. A perfect opportunity to meet the directors and ask questions.

Otherwise Richard Edwards is very approachable either by phone or email for any questions you may have.

[cerrito] 22/3/2023 14:07

Somerset lad
Fair enough question and too bad they have apart from the AGM no set piece chances to engage with management like an IMC event.

[scepticalinvestor] 22/3/2023 13:36

Got a few k at 214. Lets see where this dog takes us

[scepticalinvestor] 22/3/2023 13:12

On the bright side, might dip my toe in for the inevitable dead cat bounce.

[somerset lad] 22/3/2023 11:33

I wonder whether they need to reverse the decision to shift to direct sales, since their turnover is small and spread across so many geographies, products and types of farming.

[jockthescot75] 22/3/2023 11:18

I sold too, and I was in this for the long term.
That outlook statement was about as miserable as I’ve seen. A shame, as I really like the company.

[zipstuck] 22/3/2023 11:05

pireric

I concur.

It is clear that the directors had predicted a recovery in the first few months of the year.

the issue is what PE can you value the shares on. I sold this morning at 250 taking a £7K loss having realised what the forecast might be. I tried to warn others. I am not a shorter.