Anpario Share Discussion Threads

[davr0s] 09/12/2024 17:46

Yes agreed - last thing needed here is a celebrity investor pumping it with their followers. Guess we will see a bit of choppy price action for a while

[rackersthedon] 09/12/2024 09:03

one of only 2 UK names I have and i agree with igoe. Under the radar is the way to go.

[igoe104] 09/12/2024 08:41

Last thing we need here is Michael Taylor and his trading gang. Just makes shares volatile, as they keep jumping in and out.

I'm happy seeing a steady climb, with no spikes...

[brigitta31] 07/12/2024 17:22

Michael Taylor writes in this weekend's Investors' Chronicle from the perspective of trading a breakout of the 360p level.

[pireric] 15/11/2024 08:47

Rightly or wrongly (Not sure if they meant to google index this!), the Alpha IC pdf is actually available online:

Again I'd caveat with my post previously (#1706) that the market cap and EV numbers (And therefore price target) in Simon's work are not adjusting for the EBT shares and are, as a result, understated quite materially, but still a helpful overview for those new to the company

EDIT: I understand that Simon made edits to his Alpha article today/yesterday - the above linked one is still the old one, but his new one live on the IC website corrects for the share count issue I flagged as well as a market cap/EV bridge issue, and he's now talking to a potentially 500p valuation level as achievable.

Eric

[rutlandram] 11/11/2024 20:41

Always best to ignore unconscious bias ( “ the market has finally come around to my way of thinking” ) and focus on facts.
ANP favourably discussed by two of the most respected small cap commentators last friday as well as others.
Plus the share goes ex div shortly, with a decent dividend yield

[partridge1948] 11/11/2024 12:59

No doubt that growing the top line has been an issue, but they were hit with perfect storm three years or so ago (Covid, energy cost increases, raw material cost increases, all at a time of subdued demand). Actions taken at that time maintained a degree of profitability and decent cash generation. Recent comment suggests a long awaited acceleration in sales of core business products and this will be supplemented by Bio-Vet Inc, which on the face of it looks a very good deal. Cannot argue with Eric's numbers, but always dyor.

[pireric] 11/11/2024 11:39

Beginning to feel like the market has started to digest the earnings upgrade cycle here. That has taken the budget to move out of the way and some publicity.

Based on recent historical multiples, you can easily make a claim for 16x forward earnings here being entirely reasonable (and very far from being the high end of recent years' ranges), which is broadly around 400p. Although my expectation is the January trading update will bring with it more earnings upgrades and the share price by the end of next year will bring closer to that £5 mark.

They seem to be trading in a sweet spot on the core business with some of the business initiatives and Bio-Vet a good story on top that I'd argue are each capable of pretty meaningful earnings upgrades in their own right

Eric

Edit, to give some actual numbers based on history:
3 year average forward PE is 20.1x
5 year average is 21.3x
Even the 1 year average is 17.1x
2018-2019 average is 21.1x
2016-2019 average is 19.6x

So can see picking 16x to get to 400p is actually rather conservative based on ANPs own history and if the market is willing to credit 17-20x again even on its current broker estimates (id argue quite conservative), that would be 420 to 492p. I remain of the view that there is a path for ANP to deliver towards 30p of EPS in 2025

[rutlandram] 08/11/2024 21:36

Unfortunately ANP do not currently have the quality of management to take advantage of the opportunity facing them. The CEO has been there over twenty years, was not from the industry and is approaching retirement. Look at and listen to the recent presentations - the poor body language and barely audible responses tell it all.

That is hardly a recipe for injecting the necessary vigorous, expansive and bold strategy that is currently required. If he had it, he would have done it years ago.
Yes, progress has been made on the supply side, new factory etc but frankly anyone can do that. Thats easy. Its sales, marketing, knowing your customers and getting very close to them that is the key. On a global scale.

Hopefully the business is working behind the scenes on some badly needed succession planning as we speak. If they get that right, this business could really go somewhere.

[3800] 08/11/2024 20:48

For those who believe that Paul Scott formerly of Stockopedia is the new messiah. He has a rather positive outlook on ANP in this utube interview on Vox markets 1h:01m in
3800

[pireric] 08/11/2024 19:52

Yes it was tipped as a Buy by Simon Thompson in the Alpha column of Investors Chronicle. A positive take overall:

Some errors made with the financial figures and therefore the valuation framework though, as he didn't deduct the employee benefit trust (akin to treasury shares) when doing market cap and enterprise value calculations. That is something we've discussed in prior pages here (post #1683) per an investor question. If I correct for that with a somewhat conservative share count, his implied valuation would broadly be closer to 475p (rather than the 420p cited).

Quite a well written piece overall, and tagged onto the earnings upgrade cycle ANP has been on. Doesn't have more of a forward looking take around Shore Capital's forecasts, more just a call based on the forecasts out there in the market. My strong view continues to be that there is more likely to be good upside to the current forecasts as they seem quite conservatively struck on operating leverage and the potential outcome to the second half of 2024. And no accommodations made for if any of the bigger strategic bets ANP is making coming off

It is still good to see some recognition of what's happening at Anpario and the investment story taking place here.

Eric

[texaspete2] 08/11/2024 16:55

Simon Thompson chap I think

[allstar_07] 08/11/2024 14:51

Is this tipped anywhere today, big surge since 1pm?

[c3479z] 30/10/2024 20:27

eric,

a more considered appraisal would be that tax is now payable on death at 20% so budget was a shocker, no guarantee that the rate won't be increased at subsequent budgets. Some positive short-term reaction in the share prices could indicate relief that qualifying AIM stocks retain a minor advantage over fully-listed for the time being...

[dodger777] 30/10/2024 16:30

Here’s hoping we can get a good recovery and then push on Eric, similar in Jneo too hopefully.

[pireric] 30/10/2024 14:25

AIM Budget overhang over the indices seemingly gone just like that. Think this is therefore set up for a good rally over the weeks and months ahead as the fundamentals are strongest they've been in years, while the earnings multiple is still at trough levels

Eric

[deanowls] 27/10/2024 13:35

He does a few podcasts also which are always good to listen to.

[3800] 26/10/2024 15:37

thanks for that Eric, I didn't know he wrote in the telegragh, I do know he has retired from the FT.

3800

[pireric] 26/10/2024 15:24

Lord Lee in the Telegraph this weekend when talking about the budget as below. I get the sense there are a lot of small cap investors ready to move back into non- IHT overhang AIM shares, in which I think ANP falls.

"For me two uncertainties remain – inheritance tax relief on Aim shares and the future treatment of Isas. I hold a number of the former, including Anpario, Cerillion, Christie, Concurrent Technologies and Vianet.

All have bright futures ahead, were bought on fundamentals, and all of which I intend to retain irrespective of any change in inheritance tax relief. Indeed the “war chest” which I have built up from the aforementioned sales could top up any of the above if they dip post-Budget."

Eric

[partridge1948] 25/10/2024 14:46

Warren Buffett : Better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price". As long term holder in ANP,I have always held the view that it could become a wonderful company, albeit track record to date leaves it still in the "Fair" category. Just needs the present rate of progress to accelerate over the next couple of years and it could become a wonderful company at what today would be a wonderful price! Always dyor

[rutlandram] 23/10/2024 22:52

I can’t blame you Eric

Sat at home on a Wednesday night, waiting for some device or other for company and hoping for some device or other to bleep to bleep .

It really seems quite sad

Which is why I am still not giving up on you

Please - let your true friends know how they can help you get out of this hole you find yourself in

We so dearly want to help

[rutlandram] 23/10/2024 19:52

Hello C

Are you feeling a little better now ?

I was genuinely more than a bit concerned for you with your rather bizarre rant the other day

Anyway, hope all is well and you are feeling a lot more normal now

Cheers

[pireric] 23/10/2024 19:19

Filtered. Au revoir.

[rutlandram] 23/10/2024 19:16

Hi Eric

Have you thought any further about getting a more balanced view of ANP ?

A couple of tips from seasoned investors might help you :
- Don’t buy the story, buy the actual numbers
And
- Avoid subconscious bias at all costs

Have you ever heard of Warren Buffet, Charlie Munger and Peter Lynch ? They are all Americans so you might not have come across them.

It might be an idea for you to familiarise yourself with their approach. There are some excellent books by/about them - I am sure you will find them helpful in pointing you in the right direction

[cfro] 22/10/2024 08:39

"...most respected commentators on uk small-caps." What on Stockopedia? Lol i nearly fell on the floor laughing when i read that..

As the old saying goes - do your own research DYOR!

Why investors don't start with a basic approach of reading the annual report and speaking to management and then making their own mind-up and forming their very own opinion is beyond me..

Edit - anyone in any doubt about what i just said about Stocko "experts" should go on to read the last few posts of this bb: