Anpario Share Discussion Threads

[cerrito] 29/6/2023 08:46

When they say market expectations, I am going on the basis that they are referring to the forecast of Shore as per their note this morning of 2023 sales of £30m and adjusted PBT of £2.
9m.
Too bad something has come up and I will not be able to make the AGM as I planned. Welcome feedback from people who can make it.

[igoe104] 23/6/2023 08:00

As a model alot of funds can't operate in bear markets, they are inundated with outflows, as most of their clients are clueless and panic sell when they get their portfolio statements, which forces funds to sell positions. The institutional model only really works in decent markets..

[cerrito] 23/6/2023 07:52

Yes well done to Shore and the BOD for measuring things so well with just a 7pc oversubscription.
Like cfro was not expecting to see such high demand.
If I make the AGM will hopefully have a better view of what investment opportunities they have foregone.

[cfro] 23/6/2023 07:31

Have to say i am very surprised that it was 107% over-subscribed.
However, well done to the management team for pulling this off...

Unfortunately i was a lone voice and i am sorry to see all this money wasted in this way when it could have been used more strategically for an acquisition.

As so many shares were tendered they can't all be private shareholders, there must be some institutions. I guess we will find out who's been reducing in due course.

[vprt] 23/6/2023 07:09

The full 4 million shares bought back in the tender offer - success! Well done.

[cerrito] 22/6/2023 16:35

Just caught up with the forecasts of Shore, the new broker.
They are not encouraging.
They have revenues this year at £30.5m and next year £33m ie below the 2021 revenues of £33.4m.
No surprise that their adjusted 2024 forecast PBT is £3.2m compared to £5.4m in 2020.
Not sure yet if I will make the AGM given that the journey by public transport seems complicated and for me not much change from 3 hours for driving one way.

[igoe104] 21/6/2023 10:56

Hopefully very few will take up the tender offer, which will be a big green flag going forward for ANP..

We will find out in a couple of days about the results..

[igoe104] 17/6/2023 11:51

Got my AGM invite confirmed from marc Wilson. Also noticed someone advertising a hotel room for the night, on the ANP LSE forum if anyone is travelling a distance.



If anyone wants to go to the AGM & stay overnight before hand - I have a room you can have, I got so excited about the AGM, tour and meet the directors that I wrote to ask if I could attend then found a hotel for the previous night (Best Western next to an M1 Junction) and booked it and paid for it with reduction for no cancellation, then I realised I had tickets for the Ashes Test at Lords the same day! So I won't be going to the AGM and there is a paid for hotel room perfect for anyone wanting to attend.

If anyone is interested, reply on this discussion board & I'll give you my email address.

[igoe104] 15/6/2023 07:45

Good to see ANP invite shareholders for a tour and AGM on their premises.

[cfro] 14/6/2023 11:21

It's up to each and every investor as to how they vote on the tender offer but after much deliberation i have decided to vote against.

With reference to my posts above, and not wishing to repeat myself, the positives far out-way the negatives (with the main one being the low price) hence in that respect this is a good thing to do for shareholders.

However from my point of view i would rather the cash stay on the balance sheet and be used for M&A (which i thought was it's primary use). Failing that i would much rather see a special dividend. As a rule i don't really like tender offers nor share buy-backs.

[nocton] 03/6/2023 14:16

Much simpler, and probably cheaper, if they just buy back shares in the market.

[cfro] 03/6/2023 09:39

Having slept on yesterdays news it's pretty obvious to me that the only real negative about the tender offer is the price - ie. it's not very helpful for long term shareholders who have been around a while.

You can fully understand the logic behind the decision however (as i pointed out in my post above) so it stands to reason that this is a good deal for shareholders but only long term ones wishing to stay put.

As is the case i can't see many shareholders taking the offer up (if any at all). So is the tender offer then really for an institution to get out? We will have to wait and see but if so maybe in the question of fairness the advisors and management wanted to offer all shareholders the opportunity? Maybe that's the reason.

[blackhorse23] 02/6/2023 14:57

Switched to 888 holdings , best way to make money

[partridge1948] 02/6/2023 09:53

Thanks vprt

[vprt] 02/6/2023 09:47

Partridge: No, the bought back shares will be cancelled (so no big buyer lurking). I presume Shore were chosen because they could help implement the tender offer in a cost-efficient way (largely "copy paste" from Goodwin which is underway)

[partridge1948] 02/6/2023 09:12

The new advisers have not wasted much time! Not sure of the mechanics, but is it possible they have a client who would like to build a holding in ANP at 225p? Not letting any of mine go at that price. The news on trading is not as bad as I feared and will continue to leave them in the bottom drawer, but always dyor

[cfro] 02/6/2023 09:01

And nor will i be selling any of MY shares at 225p vprt! Are you?

..In fact i can't see many shareholders willing to take-up the offer.

Having digested this mornings shock news however i can now see a number of positives:

1) With 24m shares in issue and assuming full take-up then this would take out roughly 20% of the shares. Therefore this will improve future financials numbers by the same amount.

2) As above theoretically we could see a commensurate uplift in the dividend (20% or close to) which would be extremely welcome.

3) It might allow an institution to sell out which has to be looked at in a positive way because:

a) they may sell into the market anyway sending the price downwards

or

b) they may sell into a rising price keeping the shares back.


Overall then i can see the objectives and logic here and for long-term investors wishing to stay put it's quite good news.

Plus obviously it makes much sense to conduct a tender offer at 225p than, say, 325p, 425 etc.. as the cheaper the company can buy them back the more they can buy and subsequently cancel.

[cerrito] 02/6/2023 08:52

I find it irritating that they refer to market expectations without defining their interpretation of market expectations. I have bought this up with the FD on the telephone and will give him the same message if I make the AGM.
I do not see myself as joining in the tender offer and am going on the basis that 1/1.5m shares will be tendered.
I would have thought share buybacks would have been cheaper and more flexible.

[vprt] 02/6/2023 07:56

Arthur Lame and cfro: Nobody is forcing you to sell your shares. If you sit tight you can watch your percentage share of the company increase without you having to put up any more cash. If the shareprice is stupidly low, this benefits remaining shareholders.

[igoe104] 02/6/2023 07:52

I'm more likely to buy than sell at these current levels. I think it would have been better to have done a small buyback program and just hoovered the stock up around £2 or lower..

[vprt] 02/6/2023 07:36

Well done to management for acting on their huge cash pile and low share price today. I will be delighted if they get most of this tender offer taken up, but not sure the price is high enough to attract as much as 4m shares - but I hope it does!

[earwacks] 02/6/2023 07:30

The good news is the cash balance is up 3 million in 5 months which takes care of 30% of the tender offer. The less good news is that there doesnt appear to be much improvement in trading. The reduction in shares might slightly improve covering the dividend. However there is no guarantee that it will be voted in favour or that the full 9 million will be applied for. I think it does strengthen the boards conviction on the strength of the company. I am not saying this looks a great offer, unless you bought yesterday. These are very stressed times. Gl

[cfro] 02/6/2023 07:17

I am still desperately trying to get my head around this...

They are wasting £9m of shareholders money buying back our shares at a stupidly low price, how...

[arthur_lame_stocks] 02/6/2023 07:16

That looks a bit like they're trying to shaft their own shareholders to me.

Maybe there's an institution or two that wants out.

[earwacks] 01/6/2023 12:46

Not so much the small revenue drop as the profit, eps and EDITDA drops which were substantial.30% 35% and 25% Need some evidence that Asia and Americas are actually replacing the European decline. Looks like we have reached the bottom as no shares available to buy currently. The dividend is useful, but not that safe if earnings pick up is delayed for longer than anticipated. American debt ceiling and slow Chinese economy with possible further rate rises are going to test patience. Gl all