Anglo Pacific Share Discussion Threads

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 01/10/2020 13:47

XD and another 1.75p per share in the bag today... :o)

2 new royalties work in progress and news flow possible before year end..
Share buyback seems to be coming in at around 100,000 per day so far..

[sbb1x] 01/10/2020 10:38

How much is the dividend...

[grahamburn] 30/9/2020 18:15

Don't forget that the next dividend payment goes ex tomorrow which might just restrain progress for a a day or two.

[oli12] 30/9/2020 14:42

We could easily break £1.50 then and possibly test £2.00 based on volume / price reaction to date. Let’s see in 1 month.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 30/9/2020 13:31

#Oli12... Peel Hunt will just keep going up to 25.11.2020 until they have bought a maximum of 18,147,039 shares or have spent GBP5M... :o)

Plenty of time to let any weak hands get out if they think they can do better than a 7% dividend elsewhere..

[oli12] 30/9/2020 10:15

As I understand the share buy back is being conducted at arms length from management by Peel Hunt - I guess the question is what is the maximum price that are allowed to pay? I assume they will start slow and steady - flush out the weak hands and then move the price up near the end to invest the full £5m. Anyone wanting to sell in the next month my advice is wait - the price will move up, completely illogical to sell now unless personal circumstances don’t allow the luxury of time.

[officehead] 30/9/2020 09:36

Have been following this company for sometime and have been investing in for the last month.
The recent share buyback programme and interviews just re-enforce my view that this company is overlooked/undervalued/misunderstood and combined with unfashionable investments in coal. The recent results had all the bad news packaged within it.

Only repeating what you already know.

The share buyback programme is going to be interesting in that I believe they may struggle to reach the 5million spend. They need to purchase on avg around 100k shares per day up to 25th Nov.
Of course this is share price dependant, but I can't see this retracing back to the 100p level in normal circumstances.
With the buy back programme continuing beyond their next update at the end of Oct - which I expect to show that the interim results were a temporary slip, then I can see share price recovering to levels nearer 200p rather than 100p.
Good to be on board.

[the deacon] 29/9/2020 13:59

Indeed. Ex-div on Thursday too

[oli12] 29/9/2020 13:13

Not sure why you would sell today for less than the price APF we’re willing to pay yesterday.

[farmers son] 29/9/2020 07:30

only a further 73k shares bought and another 10p up. Bang for the buck

[the deacon] 28/9/2020 20:47

140p equivalent on TSX

[fizzypop] 28/9/2020 15:37

grahamburn

Plus possibly the inclusion of a spec divi included with the final Q4 1.75p in Feb 2021 as in previous years.
But that remains purely speculative at this time.

[grahamburn] 28/9/2020 15:14

Apart from, in this instance, the share buyback, there may also be a small amount of price uplift from the recent confirmation of the next dividend payment next February on top of the payment due in November (that goes ex-div on Thursday). Buy in now and get 3.5p per share return in less than 5 months.

Much better than leaving the funds sitting idle.

[fizzypop] 28/9/2020 14:44

Something propelling this up aside from the buyback ... good news incoming I suspect.

[farmers son] 28/9/2020 13:25

so far so good - immaterial balance sheet holding to achieve a 20% share price gain. £5m is a good chunk to underwrite the current share price

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 28/9/2020 07:23

125,000 shares bought on Friday by the company, but given we know GBP5M has been set aside for the buyback, we can expect c100,000 a day pending the price over the next 2 months... :o)

Where will we top out 25.11.2020...? 200p...?, +10 pence per week is fine by me..

We know commodity prices have turned with Copper leading the way, and solid progress at 3 developing royalties too..

Shorts must be very short sighted, or asleep at the wheel...!

[dogberry202000] 26/9/2020 16:23

Chart-wise, the odds of this going to 140 and then 160 have shortened considerably in the near term. Commodities are the lowest they've been in 50 years and are on the turn. Uranium looks ready to make a big move. And the dividend is pretty, pretty good. APF is great value here.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 25/9/2020 13:17

The shorts are having a poor day today, terrible shame that... :o)

2020 so far:
New royalty and JV with Orion on the calcium carbonate project
Progress at BKY
Progress at HUM/VEIN
Progress at Piaui and Brazilian Nickel
2 further new royalties work in progress with possible closure inside the year
GBP5M share buyback
7% dividend yield

[the deacon] 25/9/2020 11:58

Note in this interview the mention of the Piaui nickel project, and significant developments around November. The US government were reportedly interested in helping fund Piaui as part of their critical metals programme

[the deacon] 25/9/2020 11:25

Another interviewhttps://youtu.be/1ClYwZnYqYs

[oli12] 25/9/2020 10:24

Just listened to the Julian interview - despite my general skepticism towards share buybacks, in this instance it makes sense. Julian explains the rationale well.

[the deacon] 25/9/2020 08:39

https://www.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcasts/5f6c560983507b593b46e799/anglo-pacific-group-5m-share-buyback

[farmers son] 25/9/2020 08:33

I struggle to make fair value much beyond 120p, but 100p is on the cheap side.
Should be trading like a commodity linked note with par value around the level of net assets.
The dividend is attractive but debt, retained earnings, growth and payouts is a fine balance.

[the deacon] 25/9/2020 08:09

They're not going to shoot themselves in the foot and announce a substantial buyback programme. This is to flag to the market that the company believe the valuation is all wrong.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 25/9/2020 07:59

I would argue that it can be a good idea, provided the shares are held in treasury and not cancelled, this would be seen as an investment strategy to buy cheap, and an opportunity to sell higher to achieve a capital gain for the company..

It is when shares are cancelled and MCAP reduced to artificially inflate the EPS and DPS that bothers me on buy backs..