Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[mad foetus] 12/8/2020 16:28

FWIW I know someone in the business who visited the GFM mines a few years ago and said the operations on the ground were very well run. But the thread is a nightmare, like hinge and bracket

[lefrene] 12/8/2020 16:28

My NZ daughter is happy she left a buy order for 10k if the price fell below 150p, I of course said she wouldn't get it filled, happy to be wrong. AAZ has been very good for cgnr, but evidently not a two way street just yet.

[mattjos] 12/8/2020 16:25

interesting. I have always found comms. from the Griffin BOD to be very professional & they call things as they are (typical Aussie stuff).
Anyway, that's the way the market works and how it should work .. for every Bull there's a Bear.
Currently a 'medium' weighting for me.
Everyone please, DYOR.
The GFM thread is hopeless and seems more for the benefit of a retirement community so, will aim to set up a new thread when time next permits.

Zinc is the main driver of the price .. there are not really any other Zinc plays around now. Ved have gone & Glencore too big to interest me.

One thing no one can possibly argue about is the size of the resource they have

[2sporrans] 12/8/2020 16:22

like colin i had a limit on 142p that didn't get filled this am.

Only yesterday morn. i thought 150p looked to price in most of a POG
correction to ~$1800 not a few of us are anticipating.
Even to $1850....then just back on the trend line up to mid july when the surge kicked in.

This week's share price action reveals how much of the recent rise in the AAZ share price to 173p
was down to the attendant rise in POG: Pretty much all of it; arguably all and some.

Look at the numbers:
at end of the 6th Aug. [day the H1s came out] share price 170. POG ceiling ~$2050 that day.
So lost ~30p to trough this am, reflecting ~$150 off the POG to ~$1900.

Even if you allow 10p for dashed expectations of some AAZ sellers for yet higher POG
+ delayed response to the H1s ....eg. some v. slow to realise Ugur [1] is nigh exhausted.
20p down for $150 off....

So if [just saying] POG was to spike down temporarilly to $1900-$450=$1450
AAZ share price would fall to 140-60=80p.
80p for $1450 POG, not 140-150p as it was back in January.
Yes, realise assumption of linearity is a tad crude
Yet 80p v 140p [taking a lower Jan figure]; that's a heck of a hit.

Yet the newsflow, if not stellar hasn't been dire either.

Something ain't right.
Hope it's my off-the-cuff take on the situation.

[mad foetus] 12/8/2020 16:20

I held GFM 2-3 years ago, doubled my money but they have an appalling, secretive board and a habit of springing nasty surprises. And they are very dependent on Chinese authorities for all permits. So I'm not that tempted

[mattjos] 12/8/2020 16:19

almost as if the overnight drop in gold was specifically designed to take it well below likely 'stops' that would have been set at a little below $1,900

Dropping it fast into the low $1,860's would have triggered all those stops between 02:00 and 06:00 this morning. Most folk sound asleep then and woken up to see they were stopped out and by 08:00 the price was rising again
Looking at the Gold volumes between those hours, it was all sells & then, as if by magic, it was all Buys from 07:00 onwards.

That is quite deliberate, imo & would have taken out a helluva lot of thinly covered leveraged bets on Gold

[mattjos] 12/8/2020 16:10

anyway, m hoping it sits back down .. expect there will be some who bail out at round number 60p as, helpfully, Zak Mirs has said that's where it will get to :-)
Since his trading timelines are measured in a few days, I am glad he is unable to offer any more meaningful long-term commentary but, I believe we'll see the price begin with a £2 in the next 2 years

[mattjos] 12/8/2020 16:01

Griffin was first share I ever day-traded back in 2009. Though I did well with £100 odd in one day. Should not have been so quick to take profit!

[wanobi] 12/8/2020 15:58

excellent, many thanx for sharing Mj, Cel,,,, cheers wan :-)

[mattjos] 12/8/2020 15:51

short term I have been tracking this:

[celeritas] 12/8/2020 15:51

I bought a few GFM, the price is a total anomaly for the resource they have.
It was one of my first mining stocks, many, many years back.

[mattjos] 12/8/2020 15:49

long term I see this:

[wanobi] 12/8/2020 15:47

free stock charts from uk.advfn.com



free stock charts from uk.advfn.com



free stock charts from uk.advfn.com


Cheers
Wan :-)

[mattjos] 12/8/2020 15:45

Glad you are enjoying it wanobi. Good to develop a library on these things.

Here is what I mean about Zinc:

[wanobi] 12/8/2020 15:42

many thanx for the heads up Mj :-) cheers Wan :-)

btw bought the book on amazon in the end (I'm building a library at the mo :-)... it arrived today,,, I'm half way through,,,, omg, what an amazing story and how he conducted business with no phone, computer,,, by telegram from all over the world back in those days is truly astonishing,,,, I will be reading on :-)

many thanx, cheers Wan :-)

[mattjos] 12/8/2020 15:41

The Zinc Weekly chart looks like a big Bull flag and it has clearly broken out of that pattern now. If that is a half way up the flagpole pattern then Zinc could run on to $3,800-$3,900 in the next 2 years. Griffin does well with Zinc over $2,000 & exceptionally well with Zinc over $2,500.
Throw in the Gold, Silver & Lead by products and I think the market has let it drop far too low for this stage in the commodity cycle

[mattjos] 12/8/2020 15:37

fwiw, have been buying GFM recently.
Unfortunately it seems so have others and proving hard to get hold of so, have had to chop up orders into smaller chunks.
Look too cheap to me, given current Zinc, Gold, Silver & Lead pricing.
Am struggling to understand why the mkt cap dropped so low … should be nearer 70-80p imo

[gold finger 1] 12/8/2020 15:31

lefrene

You are correct, a share split would be a great idea.
Much better than a share buy back.

[katsy] 12/8/2020 14:43

This share does remind me of POG back in 2010, that too had a stellar rise, and we were all waiting for more, it to was paying a dividend, gold price was on the increase, but the share price stubbornly topped out but held with every bad news they released. Eventually though the bad news won out and when the gold price turned it was the final nail in the head. In my short time holding these the news has been a little indifferent and the share price doesn't really want to go anywhere. Lets hope the similarities end there.

[lefrene] 12/8/2020 13:31

Perhaps I should have said "accumulate and hold", but I take your other points regards volume and not being able to sell in size. I guess that will be solved over time as the company grows and perhaps future share splits will increase the float to smooth out trading?

[klosters65] 12/8/2020 13:23

But you cannot buy in size.That is one of the problems that is holding the share price back. In addition there is simply not enough volume of trading to get out easily If you had a reasonable sized holding.

[lefrene] 12/8/2020 13:08

Brasso3, if I was coming across AAZ for the first time, I would feel that it was suspiciously cheap and wonder what it was that I was missing to see. Indeed just how I felt when I finally bought in at 42p. Mind you that last rns was plainly aimed at the professional end of the investment community, and SPA have done nowt since to translate it for the hoi poloi. Perhaps our managers are wishing to be attractive to income funds, who will buy and hold in size?

[brasso3] 12/8/2020 12:29

As JC has pointed out on another thread. AAZ is a victim of its own success. Such a large rise means that 90 - 95% of share holders are in profit at these levels and most, significant profits. It makes the next step to 200p+ more difficult in the short term.