Amerisur Resources Share Discussion Threads

[al101uk] 11/3/2017 16:01

Lots to go through and I don't have time right now, but page 32 of the last presentation is a good one to look at re bottleneck FoiledAgain.

If you can dig out my previous posts you'll see the Chiritza pumping station is right on that big red spot, so there is little doubt that that is where the investment is required.

I'm not assuming Amerisur will spend capex on pumping stations or improvements in Ecuador without something quid-pro-quo. If there is something going on it's for a deal that will positively affect Amerisurs business. The threat is the fall in share price, which makes equity funding that much more expensive to the ones who aren't allowed to partake in the placing (ie private investors).

You're right that the bottleneck is not just because of Amerisurs oil, it's the total amount of oil being pumped through the pipeline at that point, which makes little difference as any negotiation for more contracted throughput would have mean further spend on improving facilities.

I don't think there was any conspiracy in my post, just a few different angles on a story that could have a negative affect on PI investment or indicate an issue that isn't being openly talked about.

I hope they look at debt financing as a viable option and screw the people gambling on a placing. The company hasn't been fond of using debt to fund capex in the past though.

[foiledagain] 11/3/2017 10:43

As long as its not Tracarta with cut price bid

[tonyrelaxes] 11/3/2017 10:19

Ladeside 47587 - "I'd doubt very much if JW will be going against GC as I'm led to believe that they are as thick as thieves".

I understood from a year or two back from an attendee at a private meeting with six substantial PIs that JW had little friendship for GC and the relationship was much as some PIs express here "I don't like him but trust him (sic) to make money for me"

With that in mind, if there were suggestions between them to get (profitably) involved investing in other GC activities could be to keep him on-board.


Quidnunc 47720 - "Unless he and JW have agreed to go separate ways"

Sort of fits in.
-------------------------

We need directors with oil experience, not characters from The Power Game (for those old enough to remember it from the 60s)

[foiledagain] 11/3/2017 09:35

I had not considered that there may be some CG loss transactions taking place before end of tax year and I think there is a 30 day rule on buying back even tax year crossover, but happy to be corrected?

Still intrigued by Giles allegedly reported as looking for sale? Would a customer want reserves for the future, or production now? I suspect it would be the former, as larger oil companies have to replace reserves for the balance sheet, and they may not be that interested in how much is being produced now if for example its curtailed through choice, or even a bottleneck but would be more interested in bolstering reserves for future sale at a higher price.

However the rush to make offers is noted, but not to say there are not talks in the background, although I did mention some time ago that the rumour was China who are invested in Ecuador or our current partners from India, where the Indian economy has to secure supplies to enable growth to continue.

Without accusation of conspiracy theory another plausible possibility and nothing more than that is for Amerisur to utilise its old technique in driving a partner out of a good block out and buying it up for peanuts

[colebrooke] 11/3/2017 09:30

Amerisur Resources plc 104.5% Potential Upside Indicated by Cantor FitzgeraldPosted by: Amilia Stone 9th March 2017Amerisur Resources plc using EPIC/TICKER code LON:AMER has had its stock rating noted as 'Reiterates' with the recommendation being set at 'BUY' today by analysts at Cantor Fitzgerald. Amerisur Resources plc are listed in the Oil & Gas sector within AIM. Cantor Fitzgerald have set their target price at 45 GBX on its stock. This is indicating the analyst believes there is a potential upside of 104.5% from today's opening price of 22 GBX. Over the last 30 and 90 trading days the company share price has decreased 3.25 points and decreased 4.5 points respectively. Amerisur Resources plc LON:AMER has a 50 day moving average of 25.93 GBX and the 200 Day Moving Average price is recorded at 27.09 GBX. The 1 year high stock price is 32.75 GBX while the year low share price is currently 21.75 GBX. There are currently 1,216,298,876 shares in issue with the average daily volume traded being 2,461,372. Market capitalisation for LON:AMER is £266,795,036 GBP. Amerisur Resources plc is an independent full-cycle oil and gas company. The Company's principal activity is investing in oil and gas exploration and development in South America, principally in Paraguay and Colombia. It operates through oil exploration and development segment. It operates in Colombia, Paraguay and the United Kingdom.

[foiledagain] 11/3/2017 09:13

What I find hard to believe is that there have been no holding announcements or that matter any statement from the company after this dramatic drop over a prolonged period that just is not tied to the price of oil in my opinion.

[foiledagain] 11/3/2017 09:06

But why would it fall to Amerisur to upgrade, when the project was based on Amerisur just upgrading the VHR facility, nothing as far as I have seen about RODA or Chiritza at all? Is there a bottleneck because I can't see that as plausible, unless its a bottleneck simply because Amerisur's agreement only covers 5,000bopd?

Hallyburton are pushing oil through the same pipeline, through the RODA to the SOTE from the VHR field and must be using the facilities at VHR that Amerisur upgraded, so I wonder if its a bottleneck only because of the current agreement on throughput

Do not like agreeing with some of the comments on 'front running' but it certainly makes it look as though its front running or insider trading, but at this price we should know that soon.

[dayway123] 11/3/2017 07:35

Good reading al101. Another alternative to upgrade block 58 would be from AMERS profits. Any deal giving a substantial increase in throughput will be a huge revenue booster and indeed as you've pointed out would be a fantastic asset. Upgrading that part of the system would undoubtedly give full capacity through OBA also providing tariffs. A placing would be unwise at this present time. The share price is so low the BOD are now in a precarious situation and many could be replaced. I think they would need to find a more favourable solution in their quest, with negotiations to supporting the share price and keeping their positions. People will demand answers at this next AGM.

[quidnunc] 11/3/2017 06:27

Interesting line A101 and knowing Wardel, a credible theory. It sits at odds though with Giles flashing his knickers at the market looking for a takeover Unless he and JW have agreed to go separate ways and he wants his money out to pour into Iron. JW might be happier as a bigger fish in a bigger org Q

[rich2006] 11/3/2017 01:45

al101
I like conspiracy theories but,
Would management really come out with figures for guidance of 7500bpd at the beginning of the year knowing they had no chance of hitting it.???

[al101uk] 11/3/2017 00:45

So, I'm thinking the AGM will be interesting this year :-)

[al101uk] 11/3/2017 00:38

FoiledAgain,

I'm still trying to piece together the timeline, but the issue is Cuyabeno (Block 58) which is where our pipeline feeds in to.

Back in 2012 Halliburton were working on contracts to increase production on numerous fields in Ecuador, in 2014 most of the deals were done, but Block 58 never got taken up.

PetroAmazonas has been trying to partner with someone for years to revitalize that block and in 2016(?) they had a deal with First Merit Group. Unfortunately that deal fell through in August when the contracts signature ceremony was cancelled.

At the time Petroamazonas are quoted as saying "We are in conversations with several parties (to find partners for Sacha and Cuyabeno) but the process is a bit stalled at the moment," Pesantes said.

The RODA pipeline basically takes us from where our pipeline enters Ecuador to the SOTE pipeline for onward transport to the coast. A chunk of that journey is through Block 58 and the bottleneck is in Block 58, specifically through Chiritza. I posted a map in a previous post, but I can't find it right now.

My fear is that until Block 58 is dealt with we are going to struggle to get any additional capacity and as this situation has been ongoing since 2012, it may be some time. That could be the reason for the selling.

Having said that there may be a strategic compromise to be made. The pipeline does transport circa 24K bopd of oil from Block 58, Ecuador is in OPEC and so may well remain restricted from pumping all of it's oil. Petroamazonas may decide to transport Colombian oil rather than their own oil through Block 58, while making up the shortfall elsewhere as they can't turn the taps full on due to OPEC.

Alternatively the area is a heavy oil play, is there the potential to mix our lighter crude?

Also what is the investment requirement in Block 58, I hadn't realised that the quoted billions covered more than one field. It could be that a Block 58 partnership with Amerisur is viable after all?

The key to all of this is "what negotiations are being carried out between Amerisur and Petroamanzonas, what is the plan?"

A second fear of mine is that someone knows the plan and that plan involves substantial capex if it comes off. Someone may know Amerisur are close to making a deal and can surmise that the deal could/probably will result in a placing... hence share price manipulation. Would knowledge of possible results of negotiations be insider dealing? Details may have been given out at the pre-OBA presentation in Colombia, it certainly wasn't made very clear to those not in attendance that the bottleneck existed, yet there it was in the presentation. I'm sure the likes of Malcy had the bottleneck pointed out to them while we were left to dig out a small red dot on a map and we're still guessing what quantity of oil the bottleneck applies too.

That future capex may be a fantastic investment (if it happens), but if the above is correct then PI's will suffer as a result, buying on the way down and being unable to take part in a discounted placing will see to that. Meanwhile those given just enough info sit on the sidelines and wait or sell as a calculated risk that they can buy back later.

All speculation, but if you had slightly more information that we did pre-OBA and could make those speculations back then, would you have sold in to any spike? I would!

[bakoven] 10/3/2017 22:39

FoiledAgain - re: your 20:43. Almost fait accompli to my mind. Have been reading up on Victor Hugo Ruales, SOTE and SueloPetrol for much of the evening. I think we have been missing something going on across the border.

Perhaps Coati and Put were merely the start of a long-term plan. The Fenix divestment was a logical step.

[foiledagain] 10/3/2017 20:43

Strange: Halliburton was awarded massive contract where in 2014 it planned $1 billion expenditure during the first five years in Ecuador. This included the Victor Hugo Ruales fields.

Originally Amerisur only mentioned connecting via VHR and upgrading facilities at VHR so why are they involved with RODA Chiritza as it was not originally in the project?

Then an announcement in April 2016 of further investment 'It will focus on the Victor Hugo Ruales fields'

The RODA must be capable of more than 5,000bopd now, as it transports oil from the mature fields at VHR which are subject to Halliburton's contract to improve production of the VHR?

My own suspicion/hope is that knowing that the Platanillo acreage is oilrich, they want the other side of the river in Ecuador. Sure someone posted similar a little while back, but otherwise why aren't Halliburton building the RODA pumping station if its using it to transport oil from reworked mature oilfields it invested in?

Schlumberger were also investing $5billion in Ecuador.

hxxps://www.woodmac.com/reports/upstream-oil-and-gas-block-58-cuyabeno-552346

[tyler durden1] 10/3/2017 17:34

Does have an insider feel to it but worth a punt now

[currypasty] 10/3/2017 17:14

John Wardle, CEO said "I am very pleased that agreements between Government and local communities, in tandem with our own social management programmes, have removed barriers to the drilling on Pad 2N. Platanillo-22 is a step out well and as such carries more risk than wells drilled within the previously established field envelope. However, on success, this and subsequent wells will augment both reserves and production at Platanillo. The recent improvements in social conditions also augur well for our planned exploration in the N sand anomaly to the north of Pad 2N and Put-12. I look forward to updating the market on developments as they occur."

[meneither2] 10/3/2017 17:11

Val I'd consider myself lucky to not see 20p again!

[fadilz] 10/3/2017 17:06

The model reassures and surprises me, but I am not sure I would not describe myself as relaxed :o)

[valentine] 10/3/2017 16:47

It recovered as soon as i said it. I hid the key too well. Be lucky to see 20p again.

[al101uk] 10/3/2017 16:42

francis55,

Repeat after me...

Price does not equal Value.

Emotion and investing do not mix

It's not their fault I've lost money

Go for a walk, chill and don't invest more than you can afford to lose.

Food----->troll :-)

[al101uk] 10/3/2017 16:35

fadilz,

We are pretty much in agreement. Obviously I still believe the story should earn Amerisur a premium to it's core value or I wouldn't be here. I too still think the OBA will be sorted, although I must admit that I'm not as relaxed about it as you are.

I used to value the company by making assumptions that I thought were safe (pipeline commissioned and 5k going through it pretty quickly there after)... as I've said before I tend to value the company at a price I want to buy, so I considered my assumptions modest.

As the price has fallen I've bought based on my "modest" assumptions only to see the market undercut me and management fail to deliver. Now, I would seriously struggle to get to a valuation much lower. We are at a price where you either say "things can only get better" or "management are incompetent to the extent that they will destroy value in the company".

The assets are still good and again I go back to opportunity cost being the primary issue for me. As of now I remain invested and would hold my nose and buy again on any serious further dip.

[dayway123] 10/3/2017 16:21

Just how far are the MMs prepared to take this, it's absurd!!

[tyler durden1] 10/3/2017 16:15

Feels like front running but at this level its a steal