Amerisur Resources Share Discussion Threads

[rollthedice] 09/3/2017 12:03

^al101uk ~ your point is already proven to a degree in that overall production has barely moved even though percentage through OBA has risen to c4kbopd, we've had a couple of successful infill wells and company has suspended production which it's chosen not to restart.

Where's the kick to get share price rising again coming from? With POO down sub $50 it's not coming from that direction. Hopefully they don't need to come back to the market any time soon for more cash (unlikely).

[tsmith2] 09/3/2017 11:56

Silly Price

[al101uk] 09/3/2017 11:52

Ladeside,

Really not difficult to come up with a justification for the share price being at this level or lower. I don't have access to my spreadsheets at the moment, but if you assume that oil is likely to remain at or around $55 for the foreseeable future and the OBA is turning in to one huge white elephant that isn't likely to transport more than circa 5k bopd you can get some scary valuations.

This ongoing negotiation is a huge risk to Amerisur and the knock on effects to all parts of the business are crippling. Imagine we're stuck where we are transport-wise.

Whats the point of drilling new prospects?
What's the point of producing at a greater rate than we can transport?
If we don't drill/produce our reserves will remain static.

Where is the impetus going to come from to get people buying again?

We will be stuck waiting for a spike in the oil price or capitulation to PA to allow us more throughput.

I wanted a proper update re the negotiations, what, exactly, are we negotiating would have been a great starting point. The worry is that PA have us over a barrel for anything beyond the 5k bopd and are milking it for all it's worth.

The RNS doesn't read as good or bad to me, it reads like more of the same obfuscation of what is really going on in the business.

The one bright spot is that this was apparently a monthly update, I assume someone wants to be kept informed on a regular basis.

[eddie_yates] 09/3/2017 11:49

Buy more!!!

[aceuk] 09/3/2017 11:42

Okay trotting I won't sell, usually get it wrong anyway ;-)

[3roach] 09/3/2017 11:40

Well received. Tiresome, roll on AGM.

[bigwavedave] 09/3/2017 11:39

So, let's get this straight...
Oct 27 RNS: OBA exports 1500 bopd = share price of 31.75p
Jan 24 RNS: OBA exports 3100 bopd = share price of 26p
March 9 RNS: OBA exports 3500 bopd = share price of 20.25p (five year low).

Go figure.

[currypasty] 09/3/2017 11:38

time for a top up for me

[juuunx2] 09/3/2017 11:23

It's only down today due to drop in crude price. Most oil companies are down today. The RNS was good news shame it wasn't on a good day for oil price ......

[bibdaddy] 09/3/2017 11:15

I think it is because investors are fed up with timelines all over the place, information being withheld or spun and a general lack of faith in the board.

[ladeside] 09/3/2017 11:09

We can all bicker among ourselves and argue what may or may not be happening, however the only FACT that needs addressing is the current share price of 21p.

Why are we at 21p ?

This isn't ramping or de-ramping it's asking for a logical explanation as to why our share price has crumbled by over 40% in recent days / weeks when the oil price has been increasing, our production has apparently been pretty stable and there doesn't appear to be any serious "outside agencies" affecting us.

Ideas Folks ??

[squiresquire] 09/3/2017 10:55

martin

Thanks m8 , nice reply, lots to work on. Actually making decent money this last year with charting using the data mining.Interesting too.

[marnewton] 09/3/2017 10:44

Seriously off topic - sorry.

LOL al;¬)

It's a nomenclature nightmare.

I tend to say ESA (Exponentially Smoothed Average) because that's what my software (American) calls it. EMA is 'Exponential Moving Average' and is the generic term.

The weighted version is a more complicated calculation and a tad 'slower'. The whole point of the ESA/EMA trading method is it's quick and dirty. It gets you in really early. But you have to be fleet of foot and get out if it looks like it's not working out, hence the tight stop-loss in the early stages of the trade i.e. dropping below the low.

I use 8 days coz it's a Fib number. A bit of an affectation, probably, but 9 or 10 days may work just as well and avoid you being stopped out. That said, the whole point is being quick to get on the (potential) rise/change in trend.

I used to use fast crossovers, say 3 and 8 day, but on the whole I think the single 8 day/candlesticks/indicators works better.

Look back at September on my last chart and follow the ups and downs around the yellow line, the 8 day ESA, to see how it works. Buy on the 16th, you may have sold on the 22nd. But, holding for a double bottom may (would!) have been the better strategy, using the 'spike' as a stop-loss. Admittedly, two closes below the ESA on the 7th and 10th of October may have had you out, but other factors may have had you hold...all the way to that nasty candlestick on the 28th.

ADVFN's basic charts use a weighted average. The ADVFN's HTML charts (supplied by TradingView) use the smoothed. Compare and contrast, not much in it though.

End of off topic - phew - out for brunch!¬)

M

[dayway123] 09/3/2017 10:42

I expected a little more from the RNS especially more progress regarding the pumping station. However this will come in due course. 4113 bopd through the OBA is an increase nevertheless and has to be a step in the right direction. I think there will be more news forthcoming at the AGM after so many missed targets the Bod will be looking to keep their positions. Have bought some more under 22p

[al101uk] 09/3/2017 10:39

francis55,

There is an assumption of future profits in any share price, want proof?

How much would you pay for an asset that consistently lost you money year on year for ever?

The question isn't if Amerisur is/will be profitable, the question is how much free cash can they generate over time. Using an old and well understood methodology, look at the share price, divide by 10, multiply by the number of shares in issue and then ask yourself, will the company make that amount in profit this year/next year... adapt according to your investment horizon.

Obviously things are more complicated than that, but it illustrates the point.

Just because we are moving from loss making to profit making, doesn't mean we deserve a share price re-rate.

[foiledagain] 09/3/2017 10:32

francis the problem in quoting conspiracy theories is when some of them have been proven to be correct.

But why would Giles want to put a for sale sign up, when the BoD have presided over the weakest share price for some considerable time? That doesn't usually realise a higher price for shareholders, so holders are bound to be very suspicious of a sneaky bid at mates rates and today's RNS just doesn't give confidence that the company informs shareholders as it should.

However I have the 'conspiracy theory' or to be more accurate, from my assessment I would consider the 'bad' news is out there today, although of course even that bad news might turn into good news.

I wonder if the hoovers are already discretely set in place, as if it were from inside information or connected parties, then I doubt they would be permanently gone, so reckon this might be the low point, but we shall see.

[charlieeee] 09/3/2017 10:22

Lucy

From recollection, the wording of the relevant RNS indicated that 5000 was in the bag and the negotiations are to increase above this level.

I agree that this does look to be a factor re the urgency applied to production increase.

All said, even at 5000 BOPD it is still a significant contribution towards current monthly profitability.

[francis55] 09/3/2017 10:20

Agreed Lucy but only if the business has no actual turnover and anticipated profits are based on pure speculation. Amer is a fully bonified profit making company and will come back into profit this year.There is still £20m tax saving for the purchase last year and the increase in oil price from $30 to $53 pb OPEX savings from OBA and so on. That sound logical unless you get involved in the conspiracy games on here to justify loising money.Anyone who bases their investement in Amer on comments made from people including me who you dont know on a free Bulletin Board needs there head looking at.

[foiledagain] 09/3/2017 10:18

Suggestion to BoD

1 In first instance voluntarily give up every option awarded for the pipeline project

2 Give some idea of the nature of negotiations, if it is for Amerisur to pay more for what we already were told we were entitled to, or is to to negotiate a refund, or more likely in my opinion to negotiate increased throughput at some stage.

3 Someone needs to either fall on their sword or at least give a proper explanation.

Personally though I can't think of a better time to buy than today?

The explanation of the weak share price is out there, as is the news on the negotiation and those having sold will in my opinion look to get back in so what better day than today, as the company is making a profit, one of few oil companies that does these days, irrespective of my views on the pipeline 'deal'.

[trotting12] 09/3/2017 10:15

Ace , it's along time since we spoke ,, don't sell !

[charlieeee] 09/3/2017 10:13

Ace

You need to look back and see that the appropriate person signs the RNS.

This was a numbers update and so the bean counter put his head on the block.

Previously, it was the company secretary because it was a shareholders register matter and that is his remit.

Wardle signs off some, but not all of the drilling.

Etc

So, absolutely nothing to read into who signed this RNS: it was the man who records the barrels in numbers and value.

[tonyrelaxes] 09/3/2017 10:12

So, on an at least one occasion they squeezed an additional 5 bopd through the OBA than the figures 'leaked' here nine days ago (post 47479). Progress ??

Looking at todays figures, presumably produced by the only Director proud enough of their achievements* to have his name on the RNS, it seems we were trucking 708bopd.


*This Director, unlike his master, did not renounce his receipt of future options.

[sleveen] 09/3/2017 09:59

To be fair there are numerous well informed posters on this thread, without whom the bb would be the poorer.