Amerisur Resources Share Discussion Threads

[lucyp00p] 09/3/2017 07:45

Pumping station deal sounds a long way off. Pretty disappointing RNS telling us the good which we already knew as was posted here earlier but obscuring the most important detail.

[the dark horse] 09/3/2017 07:43

Well that's going to help but still vaguely concerned by what it doesn't say but simply alludes to which is they are operating in a constrained manner because of things pretty much out of their control.

[sleveen] 09/3/2017 07:41

A clear statement of production...at last AMER are communicating.

[francis55] 09/3/2017 07:29

Ave daily production of 4262bopd x 365 days = 15556630 per year @$50 pb = £77,781,500. Thats over £10m increase in turnover from highs before oil crash. If they are increasing turnover while dealing with local issues and licence regulation Amer could easily push past 100m turnover...

[blackdown2] 09/3/2017 07:28

RNS this morning. OBA throughput creeping up.

[al101uk] 08/3/2017 23:05

Well, I found all that useful marnewton, I asked about charting once before and got a response from one of you regular TA guys (I want to say TDH) that involved Elliot Wave. Several days of googling later I gave up thoroughly confused.

So, now I will google what an ESA is, as that seems the basis for your take on the mystic arts. Fortunately I know what a candlestick is, it's what Jack fell over.

Hmmm... The European Space Agency appear to do more charting than most :-/

Expotential Moving Average... ah!

"An exponential moving average (EMA), also known as an exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA),[5] is a type of infinite impulse response filter that applies weighting factors which decrease exponentially. The weighting for each older datum decreases exponentially, never reaching zero"

Oh FFS!

[marnewton] 08/3/2017 17:53

Hi squire,

Greetings from a sunny north west coast;¬)

Where to start?

Check out my post 47559 which gives my initial turn-around strategy here.

Ideally I'm looking for some sort of candlestick reversal (know your 'sticks;¬), followed by a two day close above the 8 day ESA. Confirming indicators are a bonus, particularly if combined with bullish divergences, as here, on AMER. I mainly use the stochastic, RSI and MACD.

Stay with the position until you have two closes below the ESA, or, in the initial stages, a fall below the low.

This approach has been popularized by an American, Steve Bigalow, but I first came across it in the early nineties on a course in San Francisco...there's nowt new in charting, least of all candlesticks!

So that's my first buy covered (on AMER?). I'll follow up with more buys on further confirmations, in other words a confirmed trend reversal, usually a higher low. And that's best trading signal number two.

If the aforementioned ESA signal occurs on support or one of the main averages (20/50/200 day) all the better.

Three...a gap up on high volume, especially after a basing pattern of some sort, like a rounded bottom. Gaping above an average makes it an even better trade. Or, a gap up that follows a gap down - an island reversal - is better still.

If you've missed the initial run up then look for consolidation patterns, flags & pennants or triangles. You can find these explained very well at Stockcharts.com. The website is a 'lift' from the book by Steve Achelis, who happens to be the man behind my charting software, MetaStock.

There's so much out there, breakouts, the Darvas box method (a breakout system), double bottoms - I hope I haven't confused - but get to know candlesticks and plot an 8 day ESA and you can't go far wrong.

All a bit off the top of me head, but I hope it helps. And did it answer your question? (EDIT: Data mining?)

Maybe TDH and Q can chip in - though Q is sunning himself down south; from where he's standing AMER is looking bullish;¬)


ATB

Martin


EDIT: Back from dinner.

Take a look at two shares I've bought and sold recently. BKY & CPX. Both may be about to give ESA buy signals. CPX is also bouncing off the 50 day DMA and has bullish indicators, albeit without bullish divergence. BKY is just back in the ascending channel (log scale) and has one close above the ESA. ParaSAR has reversed and the indicators are bullish, but again no divergence. BKY has the better 'sticks.

Note: Tight stop-losses.

[rollthedice] 08/3/2017 17:50

POO down on large US crude inventory build. WTI looks like it could through $51 (currently $51.20). In AMER-world that'll probably send share price up as POO increase or good news usually sends share price down... scratch that... any news sends share price down!

It'd be nice to get some sort of (positive) update some time soon.

[squiresquire] 08/3/2017 16:28

Marnewton

Hi Martin,

Greetings from the not so sunny South Coast. I wondered if i could pick your brains as to the three best trading signals for a rise in a share price.

I have been playing around with data mining and would like to set it to search for new criteria.

There are so many opinions but i am trying sort the wheat from the chaff and would appreciate your take.

Cheers anyway, hope all going well.

[tsmith2] 08/3/2017 16:17

Large reported delays or two..

[bakoven] 08/3/2017 10:46

I seldom, if ever, write on this bb.
Just wanted to say there have been some coherent posts this morning.
The depressed share price is painful in terms of all the investigation/scrutiny applied.
My own inclination or line of enquiry would be to ascertain what the state of play is with RODA and/or any incompetence across the border.
And have nearly all Platanillo wells been throttled back whilst the southern connection is being sorted?
Management certainly ended up with egg on their faces following badly missed targets.

[ladeside] 08/3/2017 10:39

What's the best way of negotiating around a coup ?

Easy, you just tell it to MOOOOOO VE.

Sorry........

[foiledagain] 08/3/2017 10:29

Lucy, my suggestion of an intention to sell was proved as fact? Giles Clarke confirmed it?

In my opinion the reason the share price is so low makes sense if its at the cost of the smaller shareholders rattled into capitulation and selling, to be discretely bought and held for subsequent bid or in any event knowing that the share price is disjointed from its true worth where a false market is easily created with impunity.

The 'soft coup' is not so much against Directors in my opinion, as they paid for very few shares, its about troublesome smaller holders whose shares can be hoovered up very cheaply for whatever purposes.

[ladeside] 08/3/2017 10:15

I'd doubt very much if JW will be going against GC as I'm led to believe that they are as thick as thieves. Tracarta has been taking a significant interest in other unrelated GC vehicles such as KENV & IRON, so rest assured it's a "you scratch my back" situation.............

[lucyp00p] 08/3/2017 09:35

I won't indulge you but suffice to say if the company isn't attracting a bid at 22 then your suggestion of an imminent sale or intention to sell were wide of the mark. I'm thinking that the only reason to depress the share price is to force GC to step aside - like a "soft coup" to grasp the zeitgeist. Perhaps JW wants his company back.

[foiledagain] 08/3/2017 09:00

Lucy. Its a good idea not to try to rewrite your own history. It was your constant sniping at my posts but don't let the facts get in the way.

For what its worth I think you have made the correct decision to hold, and I think those who are waiting for small shareholder capitulation think as you do that the company is substantially undervalued

That is assuming there is no bad news in the pipeline and I've not heard of any, albeit the bottleneck in the pipeline should have been sorted under due diligence before committing to the pipeline in the first place.

For the record though look back at my posts suggesting rumour of a sale of the company, it pre empted Giles comments by weeks.

Keep your ear to the ground and good luck and hopefully you will be rewarded for holding.

Don't disagree with much of your summary above which in my opinion gives more credence to if the summary is correct then there's another reason the share price is where it finds itself and you know my views on that.

[lucyp00p] 08/3/2017 08:41

Hi Foiled, you seem obsessed with me, its flattering. Obviously the situation has a lot of us scratching our heads but I'm not worried about the future prospects of this company and never have been. So I continue to add at these ridiculous prices. Some caution that averaging down is bad but unless Colombia can nationalise Amerisur or if John Wardle decides to jack it in, I see a thriving business with massively understated reserves and a pipeline inexplicably only operating at 5% capacity with phenomenal upside potential. I see an encouraging exploration program and a relatively stable oil price. I'm astonished when I see large sales going through at these prices. Unless there is a parallel universe where the bad news is disclosed I just don't get it. It sucks when I consider the portfolio choices I made to buy in to this company and the subsequent share price collapse and I may feel more stupid if things don't improve soon but I'm going nowhere.

[foiledagain] 08/3/2017 08:02

Lucy. Do you feel as confident with your previous attacks on my comments now?

What a sorry state of affairs but it is just the sp?

Yes, it ties in with the comments I made weeks ago that you were so upset over.

A company's directors know what the company is doing, so when they make a decision to take some off the table, albeit to pay a tax bill they generate in exercising, its because they know.

Now if that same group are telling everyone else about the transformation to the business that is imminent, but doing the above then it tells its own story.

The good thing is they have kept more shares so they must believe this share price is temporary otherwise they would have sold a lot more.

Tie that in with Giles comments about sale of the company.

In my opinion what we are seeing here is nothing more than manipulation of a share price easily done, with some in the background discretely buying as disgruntled smaller holders capitulate, but knowing that any bid will mean their 22p shares are money in the bank.

The oil price is over $52 considerably higher than where the market was a little while ago, and we have the dollar being 20% stronger after the pound's 'devaluation' yet the share price still goes down.

If you do not think something is going on in the background good luck to you, but I don't see any massive pool of Amerisur shares awaiting sale, but it does show the signs of front running but even Amerisur might be wary of treading that path again.

Is Amerisur worth more than the current sp? In my opinion its unequivocally yes, but that's without knowing what some of the BoD must know.

[blackdown2] 08/3/2017 07:53

And not for the first time.

[bigwavedave] 07/3/2017 21:08

You said it!

[valentine] 07/3/2017 15:54

If they make it to AGM without a catastrophe we'll be ok. Ecuadorian election early April is somewhat important also imo.

[blackdown2] 07/3/2017 15:41

I am fairly certain that a large holder tried to pressurise the BoD to sell the company in early 2016. The tactic used at that time looks to be similar to the current situation, where there is regular selling in reasonable quantities to depress the price. The BoD did not react to the pressure then and don't seem to be doing so now.