Air Partner Share Discussion Threads

[lcw888] 09/2/2022 20:16

I’m not sure they’ll get the 75% of votes they need, especially if the Year-End trading update that should be out in the next 2 weeks comes out even better than expected. Add in the context of the stock market going great guns, the Menzies takeover rejection today and the fact that I was expecting a big special dividend anyway then a takeover at £1.25 is not good value. The fact that the current market offer has fallen to 123 reflects this risk. I will vote against the takeover despite the fact it might cause me some short term pain - I won’t hedge this risk because I di expect a higher bid to materialise…

[hpcg] 09/2/2022 15:20

Menzies board rejecting approaches could be significant. It makes it perhaps less likely that all those required will vote in favour of the scheme as it stands.

[cfro] 09/2/2022 13:47

Schroders about the only ones that are selling, but then of course someone has to sell in order for others to buy.

I've lost count of how many investment firms have been buying lately and even how many times they have bought. Samson Rock quite a few times, also Tavira, Morgan Stanley, Alpine, Heritage, Velay all increasing.

[cd27idw] 09/2/2022 11:58

Still people increasing their long position. Someone's got to jump in. BOD must have been offered a heck of a sweetener by Wheels Up.

[cfro] 03/2/2022 13:43

Samson Rock and Gigogne are arbitrage specialists, so they will be looking to make the spread of 1.5p.
You would have thought though that the likes of Morgan Stanley etc, by building stakes, must be thinking the bid is too low. I think many of us do but that doesnt mean a competing bid will materialise.

I've got nothing to lose by simply sitting tight here so that's what im doing. I know others have sold and that's fair enough if you have other pressing investment ideas to recycle the funds into.

[cd27idw] 03/2/2022 13:01

ok, has anyone any sight of a counter offer going in? There seem to be a lot of people building stakes; Morgan Stanley increased from about 5.47% to 7% yesterday, plus there are a lot of trades going through today, which can't all be from Wheels UP's agents. My personal opinion is that the offer is derisory, and it would be nice to see someone take a significant holding, not necessarily controlling in it's own right, but sufficient give impetus to a move to sack the BOD. They're selling this company down the river.

[bluebird50] 30/1/2022 10:15

Menzies plc?

[mnomis] 29/1/2022 18:05

Thanks for all the helpful comments - seems like a wait and see then for me.

[sharw] 28/1/2022 17:59

Where will a higher bid come from? Well, a competitor of Wheels Up is NetJets (Revenue $2bn) owned by Berkshire Hathaway. Anyone here able to have a word with Warren Buffett?

[robinnicolson] 28/1/2022 17:38

There was an article in The Times about the bid.

"...one of Air Partner’s leading shareholders said yesterday that the Wheels Up bid could yet be trumped by another bidder once interested parties start looking at the deal. Lord Lee of Trafford, 79, a former government minister who holds nearly 5 per cent of Air Partner and is backing the Wheels Up bid, said:

'This is a classic case of the undervaluation by the London market of another quality, niche UK company. It has plainly been too cheap...If I were a betting man, I'd say it was better than a 50-50 chance of someone else stepping in.'

Amati, a fund manager, which is a 10 per cent shareholder, said that it would switch horses if an offer of 140p appeared."

[lcw888] 28/1/2022 17:21

The other fund buying at 1.235 is a merger arbitrage fund, so they are looking to earn the gap to the agreed price of 1.25. They are effectively providing liquidity to all the PI’s who can’t wait a couple of months to get their cash and want to move on now. They also get the upside if there’s a higher bid of course as well (the downside risk that all deals will be off is very small).

[igbertsponk] 28/1/2022 16:23

Samson one is a spread bet.

[cfro] 28/1/2022 16:17

Im not sure igbertsponk, it is saying, in both cases, price paid 123.5p. That suggests to me they have bought now.

Also Credit Industriel joining them with 700k also at 123.5p.

[igbertsponk] 28/1/2022 16:00

Not sure they're picking up, just the requirements to disclose existing holdings rather more onerous when a takeover is ongoing.

[cfro] 28/1/2022 14:10

Both Gigogne asset management and Samson Rock picking up stakes.

[sleepy] 27/1/2022 22:09

Presumably (perhaps we will learn more from the circular) Briffa wants to keep his job (and presumably benefits he will get from the new owners). If so is it a surprise that he backs the bid?

Again I ask what the company would be worth if Briffa hadn’t wasted so many millions on poor acquisitions

[robinnicolson] 27/1/2022 17:46

I'm disappointed by the offer. Here is Canaccord Genuity's view, published just before Christmas:

Analysts at Canaccord Genuity reiterated their 'buy' rating and 120.0p target price on aviation firm Air Partner on Monday, stating recent solid trading had set the firm's balance sheet up with "firepower for growth".

Canaccord Genuity said Air Partner's freight charter unit had delivered stronger-than-expected trading, leading to full-year 2022 pre-tax profit, net cash and earnings per share upgrades.

As Air Partner delivers on its strategy, the Canadian bank thinks this will allow investors to assign a greater probability of compounding growth prospects. Critically, even though stronger trading has a 2021-22 effect only, Canaccord thinks the cash generated opens the way to accelerate growth and shareholder returns and that, as a result, longer-term the shares could then surpass 240.0p as the PER re-rates upwards.

"We project unchanged 2023E EPS 37% > FY20 EPS (pre-COVID-19) despite ~20% dilution from new shares issued since - with quality EPS from FCF (av. ~11% FCF yield FY22E-24E) and RoE over 20%," said the analysts.

"With a PER ~10x FY23E (and ~3% DPS), we estimate this asset-light, diversifying company offers scope for good total return prospects."

[hpcg] 27/1/2022 17:36

I'm completely voting for, but I think we'll see another bid.

[lcw888] 27/1/2022 17:31

I’m voting against it. We’ll also get to see the full year numbers before the vote deadline, which should make people realise that true fair value is at LEAST £1.40. Personally I thought it had the potential to multi bag again in the long run.

[hpcg] 27/1/2022 17:10

Only 1.8% binding. Plenty of room for a bid in the 140-150p area, which is what anyone buying at 123p must be thinking.

[sleepy] 27/1/2022 16:49

cfro - they don’t really have 27.5% acceptances

[cfro] 27/1/2022 16:08

According to press releases they have acceptances of 27.5% thus far. So not all shareholders are on-board as yet.
We know that Amati have accepted with their near ten percent stake.

[mnomis] 27/1/2022 14:05

Nice to check and see this. Was kind of in my forgotten about bucket. Bought post Covid crash, but had taken some profits on way up and left remaining 1/3 position. Would be nice to see a competing offer, but guessing a done deal.

[sleepy] 27/1/2022 11:41

What would these shares be worth if Briffa hadn’t wasted so many millions on poor acquisitions?