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TSLA 1x Tsla

16.18 (4.96%)
12 Jun 2024 - Closed
Delayed by 15 minutes
Name Symbol Market Type
1x Tsla LSE:TSLA London Exchange Traded Fund
  Price Change % Change Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Traded Last Trade
  16.18 4.96% 342.05 340.80 343.30 355.725 300.325 330.85 2,683 16:29:54

1x Tsla Discussion Threads

Showing 10851 to 10871 of 10975 messages
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Its not according to Scotty though, he is just quoting someone else.
I guess he'll be able to have long chats with The Donald then :-)

I watched just over 4 mins of Scotty Kilmer's video saying Elon is going to jail:

It's quite difficult to watch because the guy clearly rants and rambles a lot and the editing of the video is disjointed because it has been cut every ten seconds to remove it.

According to Scotty, Tesla are making up the figures and their cars are not being made profitably. This would mean that their accounts are fraudulent. Which would also mean the free cash and earning must have come from an outside source to spend on factories, multi-billion data centres and salaries...Russians? Aliens? He doesn't say.

Sandy Munro has torn down various Tesla vehicles and Munro Associates make their money by selling reports to OEMs to show how Tesla makes their cars at that price. Scotty provides no evidence to his accusations.

If you read the comments below the video it seems few of his subscribers agree with it either.

I'm all for listening to others but not when their brains are drooling out of their ears.

Scotty Kilmer on YouTube is worth a listen, followed this guy for years as often tinkering with classic cars - he has an uncanny knack of of calling market trends ahead of time.

Even his subscribers wonder how he gets away with some of the things he says, last video case in point.

DC, the software to land a rocket vertically at a precise point is pretty easy. Everything is known. The only small difficulty would be getting the hardware to react correctly to the software.

The software to drive a car autonomously is so complex (orders of magnitude more than landing a rocket) that imv, it will never in the foreseeable future, be generally implemented without causing accidents. Maybe less than humans, but human accidents are expected, softwear accidents will be corporate negligence.

I know there are trials of them under very specific circumstances (like no rain or other bad weather etc, slow max speeds etc etc) but imv they'll always be at research level and not generally implemented. And musks broken assurances backs that up.

pierre oreilly
Istr a storm-in-a-teacup (full of water?) about US tourists visiting Europe complaining of the lack of available drinking water such that they were left feeling thirsty.

One comment/cause-hypothesis that stuck with me was the suggestion that all the walking around (as we do, in European cities) was taxing their unfit bodies causing sweat and dehydration..

CATL - now there's a business I'd long like to have been able to invest in.

cfb2 - when I moved back from Houston to London the best part of 20 years ago I never got around to buying a car. It isn't necessary in London, and I know far more people that don't own cars than do. Not owning one has helped me grow my portfolio. I probably will buy one in the future at some point, but I am somewhat fearful that I might walk less as a consequence, which is what happens to a lot of people.

Seba's basic premise is x% improvement (lower cost/greater performance/longer life) per year for n years.

Exponential mathematics.

Different tech, different value of x => similar profile.

There's an uncanny consistency/reliability to it - even though it is the compound effect of various minor or major improvements.

Anyway, let's see how CATL's latest claim bears out.

New commercial vehicles’ battery launched by CATL with Yutong, with “lifespan of up to 15 years and 1.5 million km”

Tony Seba's talks are v interesting, although he did predict back in 2016 or 2017 that we were just a couple of years away from price parity between EVs and ICEs.

Also, that we should expect EVs to last for 200,000-250,000 miles (due to far fewer moving parts) and the life and costs of batteries appear to make half this a far more plausible limit.


Cheers, I will look up Tony Seba.


This is an interesting discussion, one quote that sticks out is "modelling and data are not reality":

Firms Consulting - 27/1/24

FLUKE: Chance, Chaos, and Why Everything We Do Matters — with Brian Klaas

Welcome to Strategy Skills episode 417, an interview with the author of Fluke: Chance, Chaos, and Why Everything We Do Matters, Brian Klaas. In Fluke, myth-shattering social scientist Brian Klaas deep-dives into the phenomenon of randomness, unpicking our neat and tidy storybook version of events to reveal a reality far wilder and more fascinating than we have dared to consider. The bewildering truth is that but for a few incidental changes, our lives - and our societies - would be radically different. Offering an entirely new perspective, Fluke explores how our world really works, driven by strange interactions and random events.

simon gordon
US delays ban on Chinese graphite in batteries while ex-China suppliers scrabble to source critical minerals

Chinese dominance on graphite supply

If you want someone who has an amazing track record about technological progress look up "Tony Seba".
I'm not sure if even the people working for Tesla, Google, OpenAI etc. know whether their competitors are BSing so we stand no hope!

Musk is super optimistic because it's in his nature, he doesn't understand the complexity of the problem and to motivate the people who work for Tesla. I personally believe he has some vile personal traits but he has inspired people to achieve what might once have seemed impossible.

If you're trying to do something that nobody has done before it is difficult to estimate when it will be done. Most of Musk's companies are working at the forefront of technology so I tend to cut him some slack about his predictions.

I have heard that either v12.4 or v12.5 of FSD will contain more than just LLMs for resolving mid-term route planning issues so we should find out in a month or so whether these new version are really leaps in technology, as Musk claim they'll be.

Multimodal is the new thing for AI, where problems are passed to specialised modules, which should cut down on the "hallucinations".

I haven't come across Gary Marcus before but I think his predictions are underwhelming.

I have found Dr. Alan Thompson provides good background on the state of developments in the AI world. He has posted some interesting technical comparisons of the different models on youtube without going too deep into the weeds.

Personally I hoping for another breakthrough in reinforcement training. Currently it seems like an awful lot of computing power is being thrown at the problem, which is why plenty of research is being done in this area. The current compute makes it difficult for anyone that hasn't got a few billion dollars to spare. The exclusive club restricts people like me and even Universities from being able to contribute to the field in a meaningful way.

simon: I expect people in the Tesla AI team smiled when they saw that. Both they and Wayve know they weren't the first but it give them some publicity, which they desperately need as they've just raised $1bn and may need multiple billions more in the near future if they are to compete.

Do you think LLMs will take AI far enough for FSD?

I read the thoughts of Gary Marcus and he's been an LLM sceptic on the hype and is fairly sceptical that FSD is imminent.

His latest thoughts on OpenAI:

Gary Marcus - 8/5/24

Five predictions about OpenAI 2024-2025 -- from the person who told you first (even before it was released) that GPT-4 would continue to be unreliable and to hallucinate, that it would not have the imagined gigantic economic impact, and that pure LLMs would reach a point of diminishing returns:

• Unless GPT-5 is spectacular, OpenAI will eventually be viewed as the WeWork of AI, greatly overvalued relative to what it could deliver. They won't go bankrupt, but people will wonder why investors ever thought of them as a $100B+ business.

• Competitors will continue to narrow gap; OpenAI will never again be as dominant as it was in 2023.

• Nothing this year is likely to be worth the name of GPT-5. Instead, much of this year will be spent hyping a speculative future product that does not yet exist, while releasing only 4.X versions. (Sora will continue to generate a lot of press, but be costly to run, and too unreliable for many purposes.)

• OpenAI will not release a reliable agent architecture in 2024 or 2025.

• Both investors and the public will lose faith in OpenAI if Sam doesn't deliver something big within a year. (Microsoft is already hedging its bets.)


From what I can see Marcus has been calling out Musk's hype on robots and FSD for a number of years. To date, he's been right. Are LLMs going to be enough to make FSDs a commercial reality?

simon gordon

Found a quote from yesterday by the Wayve CEO about how Tesla has pivoted to their methodology:

"We’ve been all in on an end-to-end AI approach since we started in 2017, and were unique in doing so. It was fun to see Tesla last year pivot to this approach."

simon gordon
It is perfectly clear that Space Rockets CANNOT land vertically on their tails and therefore cheap space transport on reusable rockets will NEVER happen. Eh?
Sounds like an area FULL of pitfalls.
I think the mileage would in general be based on last years figures, and an adjustment would then be made via the MOT. Income tax works much the same. You pay an installment in advance based on expectations

tbh Simon, even if autonomous vehicles were already 'perfect', we'd initially see public responses like this.

Humans being a suspicious/superstituous bunch.

The passage of time would, in such a situation, win them over.

"Nearly 70% of drivers say they’re afraid of fully self-driving cars, per a survey from the American Automobile Association. About a quarter say they’re unsure about them, while just 9% say they trust them."


Thanks, I stand corrected.

Seemingly, Wayve will be selling their solution to OEM's. So many companies working on this. What does it mean for Telsa if they don't get their first or there is no moat? Apple just stopped their FSD programme, they probably spent a few billion.

"A remarkable $100bn has been spent on self-driving cars cumulatively (according to McKinsey), but little progress has been made. Some automakers have scaled back ambitions, while Ford and Volkswagen have pulled the plug, for now, on their self-driving car efforts completely. This has primarily been as a function of too many unpredictable ‘edge cases’ for autonomous cars to figure out. Nearly 70% of drivers say they’re afraid of fully self-driving cars, per a survey from the American Automobile Association. About a quarter say they’re unsure about them, while just 9% say they trust them."

simon gordon
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