1x Tsla Discussion Threads

[hosede] 03/7/2024 11:07

Cfb
Perhaps a Robotaxi that arrived (robo)at your door, allowed you to drive it to wherever you wanted, and then drove itself home would be more attractive. (particularly for those of a nervous disposition:-0)

[cfb2] 03/7/2024 10:51

hosede: The authorisation to run robotaxis will be state by state in the US, as demonstrated by Waymo. Tesla are collecting billions of miles of data to demonstrate how safe their cars are.

There will be accidents and each one will be investigated but it won't stop robotaxis. There are hundreds of thousands of people injured in cars every year, as long as this number decreases as the number of automated cars increase there won't be a problem.

Once the public perceive the cost savings of using Robotaxis over owning a car I think they will be well received. Robotaxis are a paradigm shift rather than just competitors to taxis.

Maybe the fastest roll out will be in China? China's public have been faster to adopt EVs and are more tolerant of changes and new technology. Xi is smart enough to realise the edge automated cars can give them.

[hosede] 03/7/2024 10:04

CFb
Robotaxis - even if they work - will take time to take off. A lot of people (me included) would be far too terrified to use them, and taxi drivers will do everything they can to disrupt their operation.
Every country will of course be different, but I can visualise long delays before they are given the go ahead - and a single serious accident killing them off .

[cfb2] 03/7/2024 09:42

P/E is 96 with their EPS of $2.42. This is NVIDIA range.

Their car deliveries beat analyst estimates by a small margin but in comparison to the same quarter last year this was down ~5%. There were pauses in Cybertruck deliveries due to wiper and panel issues but hpcg is correct that this does not justify the market's share price reaction.

So what caused it? Two things: The increase in battery storage, doubled from the previous quarter and the margin increase from lower battery costs caused by a huge surplus in China. My estimate is a gross profit of $1.3Bn. On their last call Tesla said the Lathrop plant was expected to ramp from 20GWh to 40GWh by end of year.

The second was progress with robotaxis (plan update due 8th August) and the anticipation caused by a new release of FSD software.

I'm also expecting take up rate from FSD software to have substantially increased due to improvements in software and a month of free trial to all users.

Robotaxis will need to start generating revenue in the next 2-3 years.

[hosede] 03/7/2024 09:26

Dominic
The Debt crisis is gong to destroy almost everything - think a financial GAZA (just like last time). Clearly you are not a chemist, or you would realise that we are ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN to repeat the mistakes of the past.
Nitroglycerine doesn't learn not to explode
Read Rheinhart and Rogoff - "This time is different"

[blusteradjuster] 03/7/2024 05:26

Good to see those energy storage numbers.

AUSTIN, Texas, July 2, 2024 – In the second quarter, we produced approximately 411,000 vehicles and delivered approximately 444,000 vehicles.

We deployed 9.4 GWh of energy storage products in Q2, the highest quarterly deployment yet.

[dominiccummings] 02/7/2024 21:02

One fine day hosede you'll realise it is YOU that is out of step with the world.

[hosede] 02/7/2024 20:32

You keep buying Julie :-)
Yes - truly awful results - a bit like celebrating a three nil defeat - well it could have been Seven nil

[juliemara] 02/7/2024 19:17

And still the resident know-it-alls here keep trying to persuade themselves that they're right and the rest of the world is wrong.

[hpcg] 02/7/2024 17:44

bizzare reaction to today's deliveries. Numbers are declining YoY even if not as bad as Q1 and even if higher than market expectations. I would think gross margins will be heading down like a ski slope in China.

[hosede] 02/7/2024 16:25

free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

Nice trend line - Will take some amazing news to break far above that. Potential PE already looking over 100

[dominiccummings] 01/7/2024 19:07

#10923 Tesla Model 3 battery warranty is EIGHT Years.

[hosede] 01/7/2024 18:49

Simon
Is China a very sunny country?
Meanwhile Tesla seems to be becoming a meme share: up 40 in the last month - why?
All this Robotaxi nonense from Cathy . If Robotaxis ever take off - and there will be vast opposition from a few million unemployed taxi drivers - why should it just be Tesla that benefits - and not every other car manufacturer..
It seems to be trying to reinvent itself as an AI company

[simon gordon] 01/7/2024 15:05

Hosede,

If you live in a sunny country an electric car and solar panels are a no-brainer. BYD are offering the whole package from car to van to lorry to bus.

[hosede] 01/7/2024 14:42

Simon
I can see why more people are buyig Dolphins than Teslas there

[cfb2] 01/7/2024 13:50

A modern EV battery should be expected to last for 1,500 charging cycles, which is greater than 300,000 miles or the life of the car. I've just watched a youtube video of a Tesla model S being tested after it had covered 450,000 miles as a Taxi and it was still getting 93% of the original range (268 miles instead of 288 miles).

If an EV is involved in a serious accident requiring the battery to be replaced then this is a major contributor to the cost of repair. Here is an article discussing Tesla EV battery replacements across models. Cars come with a 5 year warranty on the battery.

Model 3: At least $13k
Model Y: $10k5 to £12k5

hxxps://carbuzz.com/features/tesla-battery-replacement-cost/

[simon gordon] 01/7/2024 12:46

Hosede,

A BYD Dolphin starts at $14,000 in China.

[hosede] 01/7/2024 12:25

hpcg
As I see it, the main running cost of an EV is not the electricity, but the battery cost per mile. With a Tesla battery costing 17K that's about 10p a mile (if the battery lasts 170,000 miles - which sounds a lot to me but WDIK).
I get the extra maintenance, but that must assume how long a battery lasts - It would be useful to have that info. There is also the much higher cost of repairs - and therefore of insurance.
Sorry but the Math is incomplete - Though the place for EVs is certainly in cities

[hpcg] 01/7/2024 10:33

hosede - what part of the opex payback did you not understand?

[hosede] 01/7/2024 10:10

Simon
And the cost of replacing the battery? and how long it lasts?

[simon gordon] 01/7/2024 09:43

Marcelo P. Lima - 30/6/24:

Just rode in my first BYD Dolphin in Brazil. The math for an Uber driver is insane: with his gasoline Toyota Corolla he used to spend R$3,000 per month on gas. Now his home electric bill is R$800. Every week in São Paulo there is one day you can’t drive (“rodízio̶1;) but EVs are exempt so that’s one day of extra income. The Corolla had R$840 of extra maintenance every 2.5 months. Add it all up, with the BYD he makes an extra R$58k per year. The car costs R$150k so it pays for itself in a bit over 2.5 years.

[johnwise] 23/6/2024 09:52

"I'm Coming For You, Apple!" - Elon Musk

[pierre oreilly] 13/6/2024 13:11

Well the technology is certainly emerging slowly. The first ev was about 1840, but they didn't lasrt all that long. As soon as fossil fuel came along, evs were cast aside by the much better technology of ices.

roll on a couple of hundred years, and subsidies/laws/greens come along and force evs back onto people even though they can't compete with ices on tech terms.

Anyhow, the chinese lotus will soon put a dent in the dented musk offerings, with a 950 bhp road car, for those who live near a fast charging station.