1x Tsla Discussion Threads

[hosede] 01/7/2024 15:42

Simon
I can see why more people are buyig Dolphins than Teslas there

[cfb2] 01/7/2024 14:50

A modern EV battery should be expected to last for 1,500 charging cycles, which is greater than 300,000 miles or the life of the car. I've just watched a youtube video of a Tesla model S being tested after it had covered 450,000 miles as a Taxi and it was still getting 93% of the original range (268 miles instead of 288 miles).

If an EV is involved in a serious accident requiring the battery to be replaced then this is a major contributor to the cost of repair. Here is an article discussing Tesla EV battery replacements across models. Cars come with a 5 year warranty on the battery.

Model 3: At least $13k
Model Y: $10k5 to £12k5

hxxps://carbuzz.com/features/tesla-battery-replacement-cost/

[simon gordon] 01/7/2024 13:46

Hosede,

A BYD Dolphin starts at $14,000 in China.

[hosede] 01/7/2024 13:25

hpcg
As I see it, the main running cost of an EV is not the electricity, but the battery cost per mile. With a Tesla battery costing 17K that's about 10p a mile (if the battery lasts 170,000 miles - which sounds a lot to me but WDIK).
I get the extra maintenance, but that must assume how long a battery lasts - It would be useful to have that info. There is also the much higher cost of repairs - and therefore of insurance.
Sorry but the Math is incomplete - Though the place for EVs is certainly in cities

[hpcg] 01/7/2024 11:33

hosede - what part of the opex payback did you not understand?

[hosede] 01/7/2024 11:10

Simon
And the cost of replacing the battery? and how long it lasts?

[simon gordon] 01/7/2024 10:43

Marcelo P. Lima - 30/6/24:

Just rode in my first BYD Dolphin in Brazil. The math for an Uber driver is insane: with his gasoline Toyota Corolla he used to spend R$3,000 per month on gas. Now his home electric bill is R$800. Every week in São Paulo there is one day you can’t drive (“rodízio̶1;) but EVs are exempt so that’s one day of extra income. The Corolla had R$840 of extra maintenance every 2.5 months. Add it all up, with the BYD he makes an extra R$58k per year. The car costs R$150k so it pays for itself in a bit over 2.5 years.

[johnwise] 23/6/2024 10:52

"I'm Coming For You, Apple!" - Elon Musk

[pierre oreilly] 13/6/2024 14:11

Well the technology is certainly emerging slowly. The first ev was about 1840, but they didn't lasrt all that long. As soon as fossil fuel came along, evs were cast aside by the much better technology of ices.

roll on a couple of hundred years, and subsidies/laws/greens come along and force evs back onto people even though they can't compete with ices on tech terms.

Anyhow, the chinese lotus will soon put a dent in the dented musk offerings, with a 950 bhp road car, for those who live near a fast charging station.

[blusteradjuster] 13/6/2024 09:44

Sounds like a famine part of the cycle, Simon.

Of course, that means lower raw material costs, cost-cutting, consolidation, innovate-or-die - all the usual things associated with emerging technologies.

If consumers are price-conscious (spoiler: they are), then this boosts demand down the road.

[simon gordon] 13/6/2024 09:20

FT - 12/6/24:

One of the world’s largest makers of battery materials has warned of a rapid deterioration in demand as the once booming electric vehicle market slows.

Umicore, which makes materials used in cathodes, the most expensive part of an electric vehicle battery, on Wednesday pointed to the “sharp slowdown in the growth of demand for EVs”.

As a result, the Belgium-based company said: “2024 volumes for its battery materials could be equal or slightly lower than last year.”

The warning from Umicore, which competes with Germany’s BASF and a series of Chinese companies, is the latest evidence of how slowing EV sales growth is reverberating across the industry’s supply chain.

[hosede] 12/6/2024 23:05

Thanks cfb
Meanwhile Cathy says it will be worth 2600 in a five years. She must be on something!!

[cfb2] 12/6/2024 22:59

bearsfarm: Who knows what is going on in his mind. I think if anyone were in his shoes they'd be rightfully annoyed about the Delaware situation. Having read his biography he has previously lost control of a number of his companies and I think he is wary of it happening to Tesla.

He has recused himself from the voting.

I think the media have misunderstood Musk's comment about retaining 25% ownership. There are ways of structuring the shareholding so that he can have the control without gifting him vast numbers of shares.

hosede: A lot of the media have got it wrong; it's options. The institutions who like the idea of reneging on Musk's pay package have been misinforming the media to make it more palatable from a PR perspective.

[hosede] 12/6/2024 21:36

CFb
The way the media described it, it sounds like he was to be GIVEN shares not options
but WDIK. Certainly the share price soared up today for some reason

[bearsfarm] 12/6/2024 20:25

I cant help but feel that Musk is looking for a way out and that he is say negotiating to sell all his Tesla shares and reinvest in AI/X

If he is not happy with less than 25% what incentive is there to carry on.

I wonder whetehr he will vote for himself - or abstain?

E

[cfb2] 12/6/2024 19:12

hosede: If Musk's pay deal is confirmed then Tesla get paid by him at some point to exercise those options. The options were allocated back in 2018.

[hosede] 12/6/2024 15:36

Another short squeeze going on this afternoon!

[hosede] 12/6/2024 14:02

Presumably if Musks Pay deal is confirmed the share price has to fall as it involves significant dilution. Anyone have any figures?
EDit this analyst thinks the reverse

[hosede] 11/6/2024 14:50

"By Simon Alvarez
Posted on June 11, 2024

Data released by the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) has revealed that Tesla sold a total of 55,215 vehicles in the domestic Chinese market in May 2024. This represents a year-over-year gain of 29.89% from the 42,508 vehicles sold in May 2023 and a month-over-month increase of 75.73% from the 31,421 cars that were sold in April 2024.

Tesla China’s exports, which were listed at 17,358 units in May 2024, represented a 50.67% year-over-year decrease from the 35,187 vehicles that were exported in May 2023 and a 43.54% month-over-month drop from the 30,746 that were exported in April 2024, as noted in a report from CNEV Post. This trend is quite unsurprising as Tesla tends to focus on the domestic Chinese market during the final month of a quarter."

Market not liking it a lot!

[dominiccummings] 11/6/2024 12:08

Elon Musk will always get my 'vote' for insisting, like 'Journey into Space's' Captain Andrew "Jet" Morgan expected. A Space ship landing on its tail.

[dominiccummings] 11/6/2024 12:05

#10900 That's because your iPhone copy of Siri/AI will be learning from what you and anyone near you says!