1x Tsla Discussion Threads

[dominiccummings] 08/5/2024 18:18

It is perfectly clear that Space Rockets CANNOT land vertically on their tails and therefore cheap space transport on reusable rockets will NEVER happen. Eh?

[hosede] 08/5/2024 16:36

Simon
Sounds like an area FULL of pitfalls.
Cfb
I think the mileage would in general be based on last years figures, and an adjustment would then be made via the MOT. Income tax works much the same. You pay an installment in advance based on expectations

[blusteradjuster] 08/5/2024 16:09

tbh Simon, even if autonomous vehicles were already 'perfect', we'd initially see public responses like this.

Humans being a suspicious/superstituous bunch.

The passage of time would, in such a situation, win them over.




"Nearly 70% of drivers say they’re afraid of fully self-driving cars, per a survey from the American Automobile Association. About a quarter say they’re unsure about them, while just 9% say they trust them."

[simon gordon] 08/5/2024 15:58

cfb2,

Thanks, I stand corrected.

Seemingly, Wayve will be selling their solution to OEM's. So many companies working on this. What does it mean for Telsa if they don't get their first or there is no moat? Apple just stopped their FSD programme, they probably spent a few billion.

"A remarkable $100bn has been spent on self-driving cars cumulatively (according to McKinsey), but little progress has been made. Some automakers have scaled back ambitions, while Ford and Volkswagen have pulled the plug, for now, on their self-driving car efforts completely. This has primarily been as a function of too many unpredictable ‘edge cases’ for autonomous cars to figure out. Nearly 70% of drivers say they’re afraid of fully self-driving cars, per a survey from the American Automobile Association. About a quarter say they’re unsure about them, while just 9% say they trust them."

[cfb2] 08/5/2024 15:44

hosede: People self reporting mileage along with a government department managing vast amounts of data sound like a recipe for disaster.

I agree about private cars, if you didn't need a car why would you want one with all the hassle and cost that comes with it. I know a number of people living in London who use the underground and walk rather than having a car. I don't have a transport infrastructure where I live but if I had access to robotaxis so I could beckon one within 10 minutes I'd happily give up my car.

[cfb2] 08/5/2024 15:34

simon: Andrej Karpathy, head of Tesla AI, around a decade ago was saying that neural networks (what he calls software 2.0) will eventually engulf the entirety of the C++ code. A quick search has popped up numerous youtube videos over 5 years old with him talking about it.

To get to end to end neural network much of the work that Tesla have been doing was needed as a stepping stone towards that goal. Obviously it's not possible to just wave your hands at a huge amount of video data and out pops FSD! There is still a lot of traditional software in FSD that can't be done in NNs, for example route planning or the "mind of the car" on the display.

[cfb2] 08/5/2024 15:11

mm: The cost is shown in their capex. They predict it will be $8-$10bn for each of the next two years.

I agree it's bad for the FSD to hit a curb. I expect training data has the car positioning itself badly on some turns, which Tesla will need to weed out. Given there were over 1m cars driving the FSD s/w last month you'd expect something like this to be amplified - if it happens people jump onto social media to complain. You don't get the equivalent from the millions of corners the car correctly navigates.

[simon gordon] 08/5/2024 12:10

cfb2,

From what I read Tesla has copied Wayve's methodology as it was failing with the previous one.

-----

Interesting piece in the FT about how brutal it is in China for some foreign car makers as the big dealerships drop them for local brands due to price.

[hosede] 08/5/2024 12:05

cfb
"Cars don't get MOTs until they're almost 3 years old."
That could easily be changed - by regular mileage checks - and people could be asked for advance estimates.
Anyway - as I've said - I don't expect there to be many private cars in the future

[cfb2] 08/5/2024 09:29

Cars don't get MOTs until they're almost 3 years old. Besides the government would prefer a steady revenue rather than a bill every year in case the driver is unable to pay it. One of the reasons why HMRC like a 6 month payment on account for next year tax. If they had their way you'd be paying every month, like PAYE/NI.

[johnwise] 08/5/2024 06:28

.
Stupidity has no limits

[hosede] 07/5/2024 21:59

Miles driven per annum can easily be found from MOT certificates

[cfb2] 07/5/2024 20:13

hpcg: I did some research before responding to hosede. I assume you're referring to Article 24 of the Chicago Convention? I've been reading articles about it and seems it is often used as a defence for why duty can't be charged on fuel. What it actually says is an aircraft can't be taxed for fuel and goods retained, not what has been added.

Since 2003 the EU say fuel can be taxed for domestic flights. Netherlands tried to do it but stopped in 2012 because of low revenue from the tax. Seems that multiple EU countries need to do it simultaneously for it to work.

Your direct road pricing would require tracking for the miles driven. Not a bad idea but I can see problems with it being accepted on privacy grounds. Basing it on vehicle axle weight is sensible as the heavier the vehicle the more damage done to the road.

[hpcg] 07/5/2024 19:42

Aircraft fuel tax 0 rate is set by international treaty. It would take an immense amount of work to change. On the other hand many countries have some form of tax on tickets, which amounts to the same thing.

Direct road pricing on a vehicle axle weight x distance driven calculation is inevitable in many countries, and the technology is all there to do it.

[cfb2] 07/5/2024 17:56

Quite right too hosede! That would cost the EU parliament members more money when they took their skiing vacations.

Supposedly it's because aircraft fly from one country to the next and it would require a unilateral tax across the world or they would all tank up in a country that didn't have the tax. Tanking up unnecessarily would supposedly result in higher emissions because the aircraft would be flying with excess weight due to fuel.

This is of course complete BS because most aircraft couldn't land if they had all that excess fuel. The real reason is that short haul flying would not be able to compete with other forms of transport if the fuel was taxed on a like for like basis. With the extra security at check in some of the short journey times are similar to a car. I'm expecting robotaxis to eat into these short haul flights.

[hosede] 07/5/2024 14:58

Yet no-one as far as I know taxes aircraft fuel!

[cfb2] 07/5/2024 10:30

The one thing governments dislike is falling tax revenues; they are like drug addicts looking for a bigger and bigger fix. The "problem" with EVs is the energy to charge might come from solar cells and that doesn't generate tax. Last year cars generated £35 billion in tax so you can see where the concern is coming from.

[simon gordon] 07/5/2024 09:45

FT - 7/5/24:

...fuel tax collection has been falling for some time due to increasing fuel efficiency of internal combustion engine vehicles. The growing prevalence of EVs on the road is putting extra pressure on an important source of government revenues.

By 2030 EVs are forecast to displace 6mn barrels a day of global oil consumption, according to the International Energy Agency. Demand in 2023 was 102mn b/d.

IEA data shows the shift to EVs displaced $10bn in revenues from petrol and diesel taxes globally last year, net of modest gains from new electricity tax revenue. The net loss is projected to rise to $110bn by 2035 if countries meet their electrification targets, robbing governments of vital funds that are often ringfenced to pay for road maintenance and transport improvements.

Europe, where countries tend to charge higher taxes on petrol and diesel compared with the US and China, made up 60 per cent of global revenue losses last year. While countries will claw back some funding in electricity taxes, the revenue is marginal compared with the loss in fuel taxes, the agency said.

As a growing number of governments set deadlines for the phaseout of combustion engine cars, policymakers are being forced to consider unpopular tax reforms.

Last month New Zealand introduced road use charges based on distance travelled for EVs and plug-in hybrid vehicles for the first time, saying the policy was badly needed to raise revenues for road maintenance as fuel tax collections fell.

Owners of light EVs face charges of NZ$76 ($46) per 1,000km, a fee in line with equivalent diesel-powered vehicles. Plug-in hybrid owners must pay NZ$38 per 1,000km, a lower charge because they already pay tax on fuel.

“This transition to road user charges is about fairness and equity. It will ensure that all road users are contributing to the upkeep and maintenance of our roads, irrespective of the type of vehicle they choose to drive,” said Simeon Brown, New Zealand’s transport minister, when justifying the policy change.

The charges were slammed by EV lobby groups and green campaigners, which have warned they will slow uptake of non-polluting vehicles and result in plug-in hybrid EV drivers paying more than those driving standard cars.

Israel tax authorities are proposing a similar travel usage charge for EVs, which is intended to come into force in 2026 to tackle congestion and the budget deficit, which has soared due to the war with Hamas.

But many governments facing a similar drain on fuel tax revenues, such as the UK and Ireland, have so far baulked at introducing unpopular mileage-based road user charges for EVs. Instead, they have begun to phase out or reduce tax breaks for EV drivers to bolster tax collection.

[simon gordon] 06/5/2024 17:39

One explanation for Musk's desire for a $56bn pay award:

Big Think - 5/4/24

Why the ultra rich get rich, explained in two charts | Brian Klaas

[simon gordon] 05/5/2024 20:19

cfb2,

Still early days for that at the FT.

The intellectual humility of the tech-gods is one interesting aspect of their being. SBF would have cut a better deal if he had come down to earth like Zhao.

[cfb2] 05/5/2024 18:11

Simon: To summarise the article...everyone has good and bad traits and which are which is dependent on the perspective of the person making the judgement.

Does the FT get written by chatgpt these days?