Whitbread Share Discussion Threads

[semper vigilans] 31/8/2018 07:51

That’ll be Starbucks and Costa I will be avoiding then where possible.

[bountyhunter] 31/8/2018 07:43

Yes 3.9b Vs 7.4b
That's exactly why the IIs were pushing for a demerger or sale of Costa.

[boonboon] 31/8/2018 07:42

Today's deal is basically half the current market cap of Whitbread. Valuing Costa and Premier Inn the same. Yet Premier Inn profits are 3x higher than Costa.

[bountyhunter] 31/8/2018 07:36

Good deal for Whitbread at 16.4 x EBITDA in my opinion allowing them to focus on what they do best while maximising share holder value in a saturated coffee shop market. I'm expecting the share price to rise today reflecting that. If it doesn't I'll get my coat!

[mrphil] 31/8/2018 07:30

Yet another great British brand goes overseas.

[spacecake] 31/8/2018 07:27

Yep, just can't fathom how uk shareholders cave in to money waving Americans.

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 31/8/2018 07:08

I always think its a shame when we sell out to the Americans.

[bountyhunter] 09/8/2018 11:41

BlackRock have increased slightly to 5.44%

[bountyhunter] 08/8/2018 18:06

maybe, but it probably won't stop the share price oscillating sideways as it has been doing for the best part of the last 3 years - I can't see much changing until they announce some progress with the Costa demerger (or sale)

[spacecake] 08/8/2018 17:28

Can todays move follow through tomorrow.

[galatea99] 28/6/2018 18:23

Performance awards?
But where's the "performance"?

"Grant of Awards under the Whitbread Performance Share Plan

28 June 2018

Following approval of the Whitbread PLC revised Directors' Remuneration Policy and adoption of a new Performance Share Plan (the "PSP") at the Company's General Meeting held on Wednesday 27 June 2018, the Company hereby confirms that the following share awards have been granted in accordance with the PSP with effect from 27 June 2018:

PDMR

Number of shares awards

Alison Brittain

83,786

Nicholas Cadbury

49,943

Louise Smalley

33,018



Enquiries:

Daren Lowry, Director of Secretariat and Insurance"

[galatea99] 28/6/2018 13:06

Transcript of earnings call:

[galatea99] 28/6/2018 08:20

Langton Capital - 2018-06-28:

WHITBREAD Q1 CONFERENCE CALL:

Following its Q1 update this morning, Whitbread hosted a conference call for analysts and our comments are set out below:

Premier Inn:

• Co blurb. Market is ‘subdued’ with tough comps & over-building but Whitbread ‘is taking share’. London was worse than the regions. WTB sees the capital as an attractive market going forward. Regions ‘more robust’. F&B sales had ‘a tough quarter’. Weather didn’t help. Pipeline in Germany is 31 hotels.

• Q&A:

• What ‘market’ are you beating? PI down 0.3%. Says that was better than the market. Lots of numbers bandied about. Group is not referring to REVPAR (as this is depressed by extensions). Says extensions are low risk.

• Shouldn’t recent extensions & new builds be maturing and mitigate decline? Yes, the 4k rooms from one year ago, two years ago etc. are coming through. But mix change (more in London) means that there is still an overall negative.

• Premier uptick. Where from? Business bookings helped by new tools.

• Occupancy weak? Are prices too aggressive? Occupancy LfL down 1.7% with market down 0.5%. London occupancy down 2.0% (on capacity increases).

• Market shares? Regions c10%, London c7%.

Costa:

• Co blurb. Taking share but LfL sales down. Traditional stores in decline. Footfall down 3.5% in quarter. Co expects the weaker environment to persist over the year. It is ‘managing its tail’. China LfLs up. Costa Express sales positive LfL and more machines.

• Q&A:

• Footfall down 3.5%. Overall LfL sales down 2.0%. Says travel hubs, drive through etc. good so High Street must have been markedly worse. Short leases & can exit. It is ‘quite a tough retail trading environment’.

• Tweaks. Apps, more food etc. But Costa is dependent on wider footfall for its High St units.

• Any particularly weak trading period? Yes, afternoons. Breakfasts & lunch bundles doing OK.

• Refurbishments. New look & feel being trialled. Brighter, wider product mix. Will do 150 of these light refurbs this year. They will be closed for up to a week & will drag on LfLs.

• China. There is some churn re stores. Overall expansion.

• UK – is food still in growth? Yes.

• Hot weather in May? Not helpful.

• Current trading? Hot weather & the World Cup not helpful.

• Pricing? Says ‘we’re unlikely to do much.’ Not built into plan. Remains an option.

• Costa Express. Net opens flat. LfLs down. Overall sales up. No cold drink option. Canada not a success. Went in with Shell. Was ‘a test’.

• Rents. Costa is ‘having conversations’ with landlords re terms, exits, renewals etc. Tend to have 5yr breaks.

Corporate & other:

• Co blurb. Shorter term challenge but will hit expectations.

• Q&A:

• Demerger. On track but no detail. More to follow in October.

• In line with which expectations? Say will hit expectations as forward bookings are better and comps get easier.

Langton Comment:

• Whitbread’s conference call seemed longer than usual as the group had a complicated (market tough, we’re OK) message to get across.

• There may be downgrades but an element of this is in the price as the shares are little changed at the time of writing.

• Re ‘hitting targets’, it sounds as though there is ground to be made up. Should this not be achieved, then forecasts might need to be adjusted. June hot weather & the World Cup (not in these numbers) are not helpful for Costa.

• WTB has an impressive freehold estate, good brands and international ambitions but, with trading uncertain, the shares may remain under some pressure.·

[bountyhunter] 27/6/2018 15:51

cheers galatea99

[galatea99] 27/6/2018 15:46

"Whitbread's growth prospects lie overseas"

Sorry, article on proactiveinvestors that the site does not allow me to post.

[rimau1] 27/6/2018 15:17

The investment case here is a no brainer. Sum of the parts valuation £10bn, market cap £7.2bn. Agree that Costa will be bought before its demerged, buy at £40 and forget about them, fair value at £48-£50, very decent return over 12 months in the context of frothy volatile markets.

[spacecake] 27/6/2018 11:53

All this weather related baloney is common among food and drink retailers, pubs and bars have been moaning about weather for decades and as Whitbread was once a operator of these does not come as a surprise.

But will Keurig Dr Pepper (deal to complete early july) start sniffing around Costa ?

[galatea99] 27/6/2018 08:05

Great let-out! Too cold, then people stay at home and don't go to Costa.
Too hot, then people stay outside and don't go to Costa.

It's all the fault of the weather!

Why pay millions, indeed tens of millions to management if all that matters is the weather forecast?

It's not about controlling the weather, doh!

[ianood] 27/6/2018 07:29

Yes, you can control the weather! doh

[galatea99] 27/6/2018 07:10

"Costa

· UK sales growth of 5.2% in the first quarter driven by new stores and Express machines

· UK like-for-like sales declined by 2.0%, reflecting the general retail market conditions

· UK Costa Express continued to perform well with Q1 total sales growth of 9.6%

· China started the year well with positive like-for-like sales"

"UK like-for-like sales declined by 2.0%, reflecting the general retail market conditions"

No, Brittain, that line about "reflecting the general retail market conditions" just does not wash. Are you paid millions simply to drift along with the market?

Get a move on with delivering value to shareholders or, if you can't do that, get on your bike!

[ayl30] 27/6/2018 07:07

Rns a bit lacklustre? What were expectations?

[bountyhunter] 26/6/2018 22:49

Trading update tomorrow

[bountyhunter] 07/6/2018 15:23

...anything to save a bit of work; this lot don't seem to know whether they are coming or going; I wish they would make up their minds about their strategy! All they seem to be able to focus upon right now is their own remuneration scheme. No wonder the II's feel that they need to push them to realise full value!