Trinity Exploration & Pr... Share Discussion Threads

[andrewbyles] 13/5/2024 01:21

With regard to government approval, “On May 9, [Stuart] Young [Minister of Energy] met with executives of Trinity Exploration and Production PLC at the ministry head office in Port of Spain.

“At this meeting, Trinity executives provided an update on the finalisation of the company’s agreement to its "all-share acquisition" by Canadian-based, Touchstone Exploration Inc.

“The acquisition will facilitate increased investments into TT from the combined company’s cash flow into its increased production base.

“Additionally, post-acquisition, the existing shareholders of the locally-based Trinity Exploration and Production PLC, will own approximately 20 per cent of the Canadian firm’s shares as each "Trinity" share will be converted to 1.5 "Touchstone" shares.

“"TT remains welcoming of international investments in the industry," Young said.

“Young added that he looks forward to a successful conclusion of the transaction and hopes the arrangement would result in the increased exploration and production of hydrocarbons.”

With regard to Touchstone’s commitment to Trinidad, watch the interview with Paul Baay that I posted above: Touchstone is only interested in doing business in Trinidad and wants to reduce its cost base so as to increase its profit.

[aqc888] 12/5/2024 21:05

Less competition for licenses they sell could be one such reason? Perhaps they’re worried TXP could focus attention on a new region, from their Canadian HQ, once all the very best Trinidad options are exhausted? Perhaps the Trinidad gov feels they have greater influence over smaller local companies? Perhaps politically it’s not a winner for the government for some reason (job cuts, foreign company) who knows? Things have rarely gone to plan here. But whilst I expect it to be passed by shareholders and the government, I wouldn’t say it’s for certain, and the current share price would agree to that.

[nocents] 12/5/2024 20:44

This merger/takeover would suit the govt. well as it makes more production far more likely. More production means more govt. revenue. There would have to be a bizarre reason for courts or govt. to block this.

[aqc888] 12/5/2024 19:58

I should think this will go through too. However, given nothing seems to go to plan here, I’d give it a mere 80% chance. Could be blocked the government, or a large shareholder with a different plan. Those recent SPT tax reforms probably came with various expectations and rationale that we don’t know the full story of.

[nocents] 12/5/2024 18:07

I agree with all of that. I already suggested the sale of Galeota assets made sense and Perenco are on the border, but we can’t know. These things all need a govt. stamp of approval. They rejected Txp’s bid for West Coast Trin in 2015, but I think they are more oil-savvy and oil-proactive now. In 2019 the PM was overtly antagonistic to the oil plunderers( quote!) in the October budget. Post SPT reform, and I think they are much more oil-aware. Especially as the govt. oil company lost so much money before Heritage was founded.
I listened to Baay’s interview live last year. He is generally cautious and realistic re. oil drill chances of success.But he says he wants TXP in the Ftse 250 ! So assuming it is not just marketing-talk, he has ambition for the company.
I absolutely think Trin shareholders should vote this through. For their own sakes. It would be folly not to. And the default vote is fine!
I have been in zyrin over 10 years. Total roller coaster and I should have left my money in it rather than have been defrauded by other quasi-companies omn AIM.
I feel that Baay has some kind of blueprint plan for TXP and it may unfold accordingly. And yes, offshore asset sales make total sense. Onshore is cheaper. Plenty of cheaper scope in BA and Hummingbirds and Perenco already produce from the Galeota area. It would fund drilling onshore and even pay off debt which I would support, but directors too often fail to do.
Either way , voting this through is the only sensible option with prospects.
I am not sure when the vote is tobtake place though. I thought it was at an AGM within a month. Maybe I have that wrong.

[andrewbyles] 12/5/2024 17:23

I’m looking forward to becoming a Touchstone shareholder and think this deal makes a great deal of sense for both companies.

Paul Baay seems to set out much of his thinking behind this deal in this interview from last September:

The particularly relevant bit is the part about cutting costs, which is exactly what this transaction will achieve.

Also note his lack of interest in offshore assets. I wonder whether that points to a further deal concerning Trintes/Galeota once the transaction completes. I still wonder whether Perenco might be interested in acquiring the full or partial interest.

I see people questioning whether Trinity’s shareholders will vote in favour of the deal. It seems to me most likely that the 75% level will be reached. Assuming all the large shareholders vote in favour (most have already given irrevocable undertakings), with the directors shares’ and mine there’s already 52% in favour. I’d be very surprised if half of the remaining shares will vote “no”, especially as most are probably in nominee accounts that will vote “yes” by default as it’s a recommended offer.

[dirty_diggin] 11/5/2024 02:22

Try again. It's worth it. Knowledgeable posters, some with good contacts, and a little bit of snappy banter.https://discord.gg/EVk8dkDw

[nocents] 10/5/2024 21:41

Hi David
I tried to join discord last wedk. Took ages and failed! They seem to want to know my shoe size ( not really).
I agree about people being useful re. the 20% of Trin. I have been in Trin since 2013 when it was Bayfield and did a reverse takeover. Much has changed. The assets are what you will need to know about as al the BOD and NED are going.
I think the focus on oil will be healthy. Many people are new here. Ab is meticulous with his research and detail , although he was overpptimistic like me about Jacobin. I think the Forest/Cruse level drilling, Trin’s expertise, will yield reasonably well though. Details of bopd in 2 weeks.
Trin’s cash will help. Cash generation too. Txp has debt. Txp would do well to be cautious with drilling targets, stay shallow , and try to sell Galeota to Perenco. My opinion. Txpnitself could end up being taken over in a few years. Because of Ukraine, Israel, Iran, and even Taiwan/China, oil prices are set to remain very firm for a very long time.
The US elections Nov 5th are a particularly unsettled period.

[davidblack] 10/5/2024 13:06

AQC absolutely not in the simple way people seem to have suggested. Primarily they need to be used against the assets that generated those losses, how wide that goes is unclear plus maybe some transfers via management charges and asset consolidations but not an on mass “No tax to pay for the next four years.”

[davidblack] 10/5/2024 13:04

Nocents and others you are all invited. Apparently 20% of TXP’s market cap could be about a bunch of assets that TXP folk know sod all about so having people who do would be a plus.

The board is reasonably polite and there are a couple of separate spots to dump hobby horses etc without clogging up the whole site which is an issue with Advfn whose software seems the same as it was two decades ago when I first joined here.

[nocents] 08/5/2024 17:11

Thanks for that update. It helps. The free cash flow is important as we come from a no-debt company, and Txp have debt to service. Reducing that debt ought to be a priority. Some of us saw what it did to Trin in 2016. A global recession , which can never be ruled out ( Covid arrived only 4 years ago!!) puts many companies out of play.
The BA award should be soon and environmental licence Q3. Then roads will need to be built before drilling, assuming subsurface info is positive.
Jacobin bopd due in 2 weeks. Will be interesting.

[nocents] 08/5/2024 17:08

Thanks for that update. It helps. The free cash flow is important as we come from a no-debt company, and Txp have debt to service. Reducing that debt ought to be a priority. Some of us saw what it did to Trin in 2016. A global recession , which can never be ruled out ( Covid arrived only 4 years ago!!) puts many companies out of play.
The BA award should be soon and environmental licence Q3. Then roads will need to be built before drilling, assuming subsurface info is positive.
Jacobin bopd due in 2 weeks. Will be interesting.

[davidblack] 08/5/2024 15:46

Txp have been producing cash since September. They commenced drilling with that cashflow in January and have drilled two big drills, two smaller, are building a road, bridge and new platform for four more holes at Pad B. The drilling has now paused possibly because of the bid but also likely to refill the coffers at $750k a week. Hopefully that cashflow will double by Christmas and then some of it deployed on the Trinity assets?

[nocents] 08/5/2024 14:38

hxxps://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/trinity-touch-stone

Worth reading.

I am not sure that the large holders of Trin’s shares would have given their irrevocable support to Touchstone if they were as defeatist.
Also worth listening to the Trin presentation again. Trin were unable to unlock the assets and believe that TXP can. Worth noting the substantial growth of FcF for TXP too. I am not saying fall for hype, just not to throw the barrel of babies out with the bathwater. Txp are not Trin. The analysis above makes some very salient points.

[skyship] 08/5/2024 13:38

Sold more at 54p yesterday and today. Now down to less than 3% allocation...

To my mind everything we see of value in TXP is what we saw as value with TRIN; yet the share price slumped beyond comprehension.

The combined group will have a lot going for it; yet the share price could well continue its inexorable downward drift. DRIFT? - actually more of a plunge!

[nocents] 07/5/2024 23:01

With Trin it came down to mistrust. Being ignored, fed fables etc. And the coup de grâce was the taking awayvof the “ set in stone” dividend. The rise to 53p is not a valid excuse. It was at £1.25p just over a year ago. Mismanagement and shareholder neglect.
We need to see the $44m in the books. Is it forecast or already in the bank?
The 50% extra is a forecast. Trin forecast up to 700 bopd from Jacobin and got sand.
Believe nothing on AIM until it is flowing or in the bank.
JSEnever recovered from Montara storage failure and the February gas firld to replenish coffers?? The shareholder business is built on promises. Many many are not delivered. It’s why they say sell on the rumour.
I want this to work out. But I am not putting my head on the block of false promises any more. 4D took my life savings with its Cancer-fighting hogwash, POG promised shareholder value and the next week sprung a 15:1 Rights Issue to pay overdue bonds, Ncyt’s CEO absconded post covid with a massive bonus as the govt took them to court. That’s where my hard-earned naive money has gone. I would rather sell up than give it away to another set of empire builders on quicksand.
So, is this $44m in the bank or projected?
When do TXP declare the result of Cascadura gas flow?? Please let us know.

When do we hear of Jacobin’s Forest/Cruse bopd? End of May.
We (I) need to feel that TXP know what they are doing and have aplan. Trin didn’t on either score.
Any factual knowledge welcome please…
Thanks

[sleepy] 07/5/2024 21:44

1) is the 44m actual or expected?

2) how much good have Trinity’s oil and cash flow done for their shareholders?

[che7win] 07/5/2024 21:39

Surely the 44m cash flow from operations underpins value.And another 50% forecast by year end.

[sleepy] 07/5/2024 21:35

How worthy of trust are the TXP management? Did the CEO have a run in with the Canadian financial regulators?

[nocents] 07/5/2024 20:37

I welcome any views on TXP’s short to midterm catalysts. We have to learn to trust the management just as we were forced to learn to mistrust Trinity’s.

[aqc888] 07/5/2024 20:22

Trinidad seems like a particularly tricky place to drill with success. However it’s also in a jurisdiction that is unusually pro-fossil fuels. Hopefully with the combined portfolio they will select the very best opportunities, such as Galeota and that the drilling success rate will be improved.

[nocents] 07/5/2024 14:47

There were few serious holders at under 50p because it crashed so quickly and unexpectedly. Most short term holders below 50p have sold out. Rest have an average 65p+. Some ( incl me) at £1.20+
Trin will have to reach 75p or 50p TXP to see bigger sells.
Part 1:-It is probably worth holding the new shares a while ( if approved) as any real reward will come with TXP boepd successes.
Part 2:-
Or maybe the market will treat TXP like Trin and crucify it on Cascadura failures and capex wastage on unfulfilled dreams with poor drill results. Capital allocation could just be shareholder seduction. I am putting the other argument forward here. Caveat emptor here. This is AIM. They wish to relieve us of our financial investments and Txp is at an all-time low of 39p. No promises. I am putting the other side forward here, which is healthy. Are we getting into another Trin situation with unfulfilled promise?? Look at JSE. Promised gas field production by February which would solve all financialnissues. Never happened.
So convince me that TXP shares have the possibility of paying back some of a humungous Trin shambolic screw up which seduced us into losing through trust.
So convince me that I am making a good decision to become a TXP holder.
This is a crucial request:-

[davidblack] 07/5/2024 13:33

TXP is now locked to Trinity’s price which is the cheap route into TXP assuming the EGM votes for it.

Trinity is for now the 10% cheaper route into the shares, presumably due to uncertainty on the vote and maybe relieved Trin holders departing after a serious 50% price rise.

[nocents] 07/5/2024 12:42

They were part of the refinancers in 2016 who brought back Trin from Citibank vultures. Along with Segel . Bruce Dingwall was highly respected in the oil arena so used Trin’s Article 11 equivalent as protection from creditors and used his status and contacts to refinance in Q4 2016. Trin sadly went to pot when he died.
Trin looking very good value today . Txp at 39p . Can’t buy but would. I think it is being massaged down for buying purposes. Opinion.

[sleepy] 07/5/2024 10:59

lexus880 - Trinidad seems to be awash with oil and it looks like a no brainer that good money should be made there. But it doesn’t seem to go back to TRIN or TXP shareholders. Scott Casto & Jan-Dirk Lueders seem to be among the optimists who thought they could make money from Trinity