Trinity Exploration & Pr... Share Discussion Threads

[nocents] 01/5/2024 10:35

Yes. Forest upper levels will be producing then. Trin is good at these levels. Got to be good at something. Their error was placating the govt. and their own arrogance with a deep well. Paul Baay wished them luck but does not generally support high risk deep drilling. Trin should’ve known about the sand. Seismic is not enough. Jacobin ought to produce decently from Forest level. Late May we will get flow update. They should have stuck to shallow drills. Foolish waste of money.BOD are shambolic PB is charismatic but can draw people into hype. Caveat.
But he has had ambition from the start, something Trin lacks. Txp does spring up cash-calls, but at 40p and with cash generative production from itself and Trin , should hopefully not need to.
It is not(!) a done deal. Let us not forget this. Trin’s financed assets put it at 10 times 36p s/p.
Please would you fill us in on the 3 wells drilled, 2 coming online and when/forecast bopd ( oil not gas??). And the Ortoire/Cascadura and other blocks. You throw out that production is expected to double??
We have been spun yarns here re. Jacobin, so all is with salt, but please save us trawling through RNS’s ! Thanks!!

[che7win] 01/5/2024 10:21

Thanks Skyship / nocents,
Honestly, I don’t think this deal is great from TXP point of view, but clearly TRIN is throwing off cash, maybe combined the synergies are compelling.

My view is not clear, I would be happy to walk away from TRIN. You guys are getting a free get out of jail card is my impression.

Is Jacobin written off? I’m not positive on it being sorted….May is date we will know?

[aqc888] 01/5/2024 09:53

Can the board disclose whether they’ve exhausted any options to sell to Perenco. I suppose this would be a crucial factor for us Trinity shareholders to decide whether a full and proper sale has been explored before taking the first offer. I’m still at a 25% loss after this morning.

Would be a good time to have an investor meet explaining the opportunities and synergies of the Touchstone bid and the benefits. Unlocking Galota which would be a significant win.

[nocents] 01/5/2024 09:36

Che7 you know more about TXP than me . Certainly recent stuff. I have followed them since their exit from Calgary fields but you know more recent stuff. I don’t question you. And 40p is remarkably low for TXP!
But you underestimate Trin’s assets. Well over £3.45p target price by the in-house broker if financed to utilize the offshore assets. And Buenos Ayres is undrilled onshore. A first for Trin. Shallow Forest/Cruse should yield well. Trin is worth multiple what is being offered.Bruce once said in a meeting in 2018 that he would never consider a cheap sell off. I think this BOD are just constantly wriggling in their seats and feel no bond to the company. I welocome a bidding war but question its likelihood.

[nocents] 01/5/2024 09:29

I personally doubt a bidding war but would welcome it. Lest we forget, the govt. has to approve this and any other bid, so it is not a done deal. But certainly low lowball. TXP have greater potential for growth though, and to be at 40p is 15p below its recent Placing, so there are many reasons to want the price higher. T and T generally focus more on gas than oil too, so it gives a broader market. 5 months until end Q3 though. A while to wait.
Perenco ought to step in, especially at these prices, but I’m not sure.
It is a steal for TXP.

[skyship] 01/5/2024 09:21

che7win - read through the last Cavendish report:

hxxps://www.research-tree.com/companies/uk/oil-gas-e-ps/trinity-exploration-production-plc/research/cavendish/trinity-exploration-and-production-core-business-remains-robust-cost-manageme/129_afc9233b-2826-4b91-a248-07ce5f5c861a/78009ef9-7b5f-46f7-b1bb-c6ec80c7a573

We are too small to exploit Galeota - but it is worth more than 200p/share!

[nafafa] 01/5/2024 09:20

Quote from JB 'The premium offered demonstrates the value Touchstone sees in Trinity's team and operations .....'. What rubbish, his management team have completely screwed up and after destroying shareholder value are now prepared to sell us out for peanuts. No doubt they each will personally benefit financially if they get the deal through. No wonder they were so reluctant to purchase shares themselves!

[nocents] 01/5/2024 09:19

PB . Paul Baay. CEO of TXP.
His aim is to be in the Ftse 250.
A good prospect if it ever comes about.

[che7win] 01/5/2024 09:15

Nocents,
Actually you guys are getting a great deal. Have you seen the share price of TXP, its fall has been mirroring TRINs and is not justified.

TXP has current production over 7000 boepd and is expected to double again by year end. The current production has tripled since last September and not reflected in the share price.

We have no placings as we just secured loans funding.
On well failures, the only recent well failure is Jacobin. TXP has drilled three wells recently and all are successful and extending the reservoir basin of Cascadura to the east.
Two wells will be out into production soon, you get that upside which is bad timing on TXP management part.

I will happily vote against this deal as a TXP shareholder, but first tell me why you think it’s not fair for TRin shareholders - and take TXP share price collapse into consideration!

[skyship] 01/5/2024 09:14

AB - was that undisclosed TXP offer 6months ago a matter of public record; or rumour...

[skyship] 01/5/2024 09:12

Buying more at a 10% discount to the lowball TXP bid.

Has to be a very good chance of someone else entering the fray with a knockout 70p cash bid.

If not - then accept the bid and wait for a recovery in the TXP/TRIN combo...

[skyship] 01/5/2024 09:01

nocents - PB?

[nocents] 01/5/2024 08:57

I am with Ab here. To sell Trin at this low level is appalling and I am amazed that the big shareholders have accepted it. I have followed PB and TXP since their arrival in T and T and attempted acquisition of West Coast in 2016 blocked by govt. Much more dynamic company. They had a well failure recently too though. Very ready to rely on Placings. One recently. I am at £1.29b/e here so the ride will be interesting. Trin was worth well over £1 though so it is a real sell-out.

[junky monkey] 01/5/2024 08:37

Guess I should invite you lot into the TXP discord now. There are a couple wiki channels for Trinity stuff, feel free to post any relevant info you have there. If you’re easily offended or woke, the Discord isn’t going to be a good place for you. Have fun.

hxxps://discord.gg/JTUEtd6j

[che7win] 01/5/2024 08:29

Skyship, As a TXP shareholder, I can honestly say I think TRIN shareholders are getting a steal.Because of one thing - Ortoire and specifically Cascadura.TXP production is forecast to reach 14500 boepd by end of this year, you guys will be joining the ride at the best time in 3 years.So I'm not happy for that reason, but see tremendous upside for both shareholders - you're getting an extremely fair deal from my side of the house as a TXP (and former TRIN) shareholder.

[skyship] 01/5/2024 08:12

As I posted in 7262 5weeks ago:

"Might there be any logic to a bid from Touchstone (TXP)?

They are a larger organisation; and they surely might be tempted to pick up for peanuts the regular cashflow and Galeota potential that TRIN offers.

They would need to offer North of 80p to be listened to; even 100p. But still crazy cheap at even that level!"

----------------------=--

Surely they cannot expect to get away with a lowball bid of just 60p. Why are the Board and large shareholders accepting such a miserable valuation?

[orbit007] 01/5/2024 08:11

Well well, so the hunch proved to be correct, there was something going on.

I agree, the offer is lowball, but the shareprice of touchstone should also start motoring now as the synergies are valuable to both parties, not an investor in touchstone, but any thoughts on their potential would be welcomed?

[lexus880] 01/5/2024 08:09

It could have been worse with a share sell-out for less; at least there may be an opportunity for growth for those that want to hang on. Hopefully, that is the end of the misery; I know nothing of TXP.

[aqc888] 01/5/2024 08:08

Offer seems pretty low ball… let’s hope Perenco come out of the woodwork asap

[skyship] 01/5/2024 07:51

Surely a steal for Perenco.

[spectoacc] 01/5/2024 07:29

Who keeps their jobs for agreeing to the t/o will indeed be interesting.

Likely counter-bidders? Will need to be trade, for the tax loss potential, not eg PE.