Trinity Exploration & Pr... Share Discussion Threads

[nocents] 08/5/2024 17:08

Thanks for that update. It helps. The free cash flow is important as we come from a no-debt company, and Txp have debt to service. Reducing that debt ought to be a priority. Some of us saw what it did to Trin in 2016. A global recession , which can never be ruled out ( Covid arrived only 4 years ago!!) puts many companies out of play.
The BA award should be soon and environmental licence Q3. Then roads will need to be built before drilling, assuming subsurface info is positive.
Jacobin bopd due in 2 weeks. Will be interesting.

[davidblack] 08/5/2024 15:46

Txp have been producing cash since September. They commenced drilling with that cashflow in January and have drilled two big drills, two smaller, are building a road, bridge and new platform for four more holes at Pad B. The drilling has now paused possibly because of the bid but also likely to refill the coffers at $750k a week. Hopefully that cashflow will double by Christmas and then some of it deployed on the Trinity assets?

[nocents] 08/5/2024 14:38

hxxps://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/trinity-touch-stone

Worth reading.

I am not sure that the large holders of Trin’s shares would have given their irrevocable support to Touchstone if they were as defeatist.
Also worth listening to the Trin presentation again. Trin were unable to unlock the assets and believe that TXP can. Worth noting the substantial growth of FcF for TXP too. I am not saying fall for hype, just not to throw the barrel of babies out with the bathwater. Txp are not Trin. The analysis above makes some very salient points.

[skyship] 08/5/2024 13:38

Sold more at 54p yesterday and today. Now down to less than 3% allocation...

To my mind everything we see of value in TXP is what we saw as value with TRIN; yet the share price slumped beyond comprehension.

The combined group will have a lot going for it; yet the share price could well continue its inexorable downward drift. DRIFT? - actually more of a plunge!

[nocents] 07/5/2024 23:01

With Trin it came down to mistrust. Being ignored, fed fables etc. And the coup de grâce was the taking awayvof the “ set in stone” dividend. The rise to 53p is not a valid excuse. It was at £1.25p just over a year ago. Mismanagement and shareholder neglect.
We need to see the $44m in the books. Is it forecast or already in the bank?
The 50% extra is a forecast. Trin forecast up to 700 bopd from Jacobin and got sand.
Believe nothing on AIM until it is flowing or in the bank.
JSEnever recovered from Montara storage failure and the February gas firld to replenish coffers?? The shareholder business is built on promises. Many many are not delivered. It’s why they say sell on the rumour.
I want this to work out. But I am not putting my head on the block of false promises any more. 4D took my life savings with its Cancer-fighting hogwash, POG promised shareholder value and the next week sprung a 15:1 Rights Issue to pay overdue bonds, Ncyt’s CEO absconded post covid with a massive bonus as the govt took them to court. That’s where my hard-earned naive money has gone. I would rather sell up than give it away to another set of empire builders on quicksand.
So, is this $44m in the bank or projected?
When do TXP declare the result of Cascadura gas flow?? Please let us know.

When do we hear of Jacobin’s Forest/Cruse bopd? End of May.
We (I) need to feel that TXP know what they are doing and have aplan. Trin didn’t on either score.
Any factual knowledge welcome please…
Thanks

[sleepy] 07/5/2024 21:44

1) is the 44m actual or expected?

2) how much good have Trinity’s oil and cash flow done for their shareholders?

[che7win] 07/5/2024 21:39

Surely the 44m cash flow from operations underpins value.And another 50% forecast by year end.

[sleepy] 07/5/2024 21:35

How worthy of trust are the TXP management? Did the CEO have a run in with the Canadian financial regulators?

[nocents] 07/5/2024 20:37

I welcome any views on TXP’s short to midterm catalysts. We have to learn to trust the management just as we were forced to learn to mistrust Trinity’s.

[aqc888] 07/5/2024 20:22

Trinidad seems like a particularly tricky place to drill with success. However it’s also in a jurisdiction that is unusually pro-fossil fuels. Hopefully with the combined portfolio they will select the very best opportunities, such as Galeota and that the drilling success rate will be improved.

[nocents] 07/5/2024 14:47

There were few serious holders at under 50p because it crashed so quickly and unexpectedly. Most short term holders below 50p have sold out. Rest have an average 65p+. Some ( incl me) at £1.20+
Trin will have to reach 75p or 50p TXP to see bigger sells.
Part 1:-It is probably worth holding the new shares a while ( if approved) as any real reward will come with TXP boepd successes.
Part 2:-
Or maybe the market will treat TXP like Trin and crucify it on Cascadura failures and capex wastage on unfulfilled dreams with poor drill results. Capital allocation could just be shareholder seduction. I am putting the other argument forward here. Caveat emptor here. This is AIM. They wish to relieve us of our financial investments and Txp is at an all-time low of 39p. No promises. I am putting the other side forward here, which is healthy. Are we getting into another Trin situation with unfulfilled promise?? Look at JSE. Promised gas field production by February which would solve all financialnissues. Never happened.
So convince me that TXP shares have the possibility of paying back some of a humungous Trin shambolic screw up which seduced us into losing through trust.
So convince me that I am making a good decision to become a TXP holder.
This is a crucial request:-

[davidblack] 07/5/2024 13:33

TXP is now locked to Trinity’s price which is the cheap route into TXP assuming the EGM votes for it.

Trinity is for now the 10% cheaper route into the shares, presumably due to uncertainty on the vote and maybe relieved Trin holders departing after a serious 50% price rise.

[nocents] 07/5/2024 12:42

They were part of the refinancers in 2016 who brought back Trin from Citibank vultures. Along with Segel . Bruce Dingwall was highly respected in the oil arena so used Trin’s Article 11 equivalent as protection from creditors and used his status and contacts to refinance in Q4 2016. Trin sadly went to pot when he died.
Trin looking very good value today . Txp at 39p . Can’t buy but would. I think it is being massaged down for buying purposes. Opinion.

[sleepy] 07/5/2024 10:59

lexus880 - Trinidad seems to be awash with oil and it looks like a no brainer that good money should be made there. But it doesn’t seem to go back to TRIN or TXP shareholders. Scott Casto & Jan-Dirk Lueders seem to be among the optimists who thought they could make money from Trinity

[che7win] 07/5/2024 10:45

They go back many years, see them involved back in 2017

[lexus880] 07/5/2024 10:02

Why would these guys be interested in Trin: Scott Casto & Jan-Dirk Lueders

Scott Casto is a founder and crypto enthusiast who works at CMT Digital, a Chicago-based firm that focuses on digital asset trading and investment. With over 20 years of experience in finance, Casto has been involved in digital assets since 2013 and has become an expert in the field. Casto is passionate about blockchain technology and its potential to revolutionize various industries.

Jan-Dirk Lueders is a partner and co-founder of Pondera and is responsible for evaluating potential investment opportunities and managing portfolio companies at a board level. He is also the co-founder and co-CEO of CMT Group. Jan-Dirk has over 30 years of experience investing across venture capital, private equity, and hedge funds, and has deep expertise in developing emergent technologies.

[andrewbyles] 06/5/2024 19:03

From the takeover document: “It is expected that the Scheme Document will be published as soon as reasonably practicable, that the Court Meeting and the General Meeting shall be held on or around the end of May 2024 and that the Scheme shall become Effective before the end of Q3 2024.”

[davidblack] 06/5/2024 18:33

Sleepy no this is a U.K. thing. The EGM is called by Trinity.

21 clear days' notice is required for a traded company's AGM, although this is slightly different for public companies subject to the UK Corporate Governance Code, where the required notice period is 20 working days.24 Oct 2023
› article › u...
Useful tips on giving notice of a general meeting - Articles - Gateley

[sleepy] 06/5/2024 17:49

@Davidblack - This month, next month, some time, never? Suspect we are on Trinidadian time

[davidblack] 06/5/2024 16:26

Could someone post as to when they receive the EGM notice and the meeting date?

[che7win] 06/5/2024 15:24

Yes, any company should find BBs invaluable for feedback as to what their owners perception is or what concerns they have.Dont get that rant either.

[nocents] 06/5/2024 15:06

BA was set for late 2024 early 2025 drilling. Environmental licence already applied for. Delays inevitable but probably partially factored in. Trin’s cashflow was in part to be accumulated for this purpose. Either way, if the takeover goes through, better for TXP to assign priorities their own way, so it’s kind of academic really. If I become a holder of TXP, I will want them to just do their jobs properly. Something which was not the case for Trin in 2023 and which was responsible for the share price demise. The Chairman whinge about BB holders was out of order. People can talk utter tosh on these chatsites ( me included)and a responsible business should recognize that.
I just want the vote done and dusted in September, so I/we can move on .

[davidblack] 06/5/2024 14:07

Nocent on the Buenos Ayres drilling in 2024 idea that was never going to happen. The exploration plans will take 9 months to approve so add that to the licence approvals point.

TXP are in the same place with the new Cipero and Charuma licences.

The difference is TXP probably would likely welcome that delay as it allows them to spend their cashflows on existing Ortoire where the pays backs on Cascadura are possibly months.

Whatever side of the bid you fall on the only certainty is the T&T bureaucracy is slow.

[nocents] 06/5/2024 11:19

Actually I, and some others, certainly saw 100p and over as possible this year without the deal, if Buenos Ayres proved very productive if drilled 2024 or some or all of Galeota was sold. Particularly the latter seemed feasible.
So we did see over £1 this year as possible without this deal. But now we are 1.5 times what TXP is valued at ( i.e Trin at about 58p atm.) and assuming the deal is voted through which seems probable, we ride on the back of any Cascadura gas yield, already set up for storage and sale, and Coho-1. Not to mention Trin’s explorations and 150 re-workovers. TXP will be 20% diluted but reap far more than this from Trin’s cash, profit, tax exemption, and assets ( which can even be sold by TXP to yield free tax-exempt cash). Cost savings , inc. directors’ and 5 NED’s remuneration , will be significant.
TXP will have a M. Cap of over £100m which puts it in the sights of new larger investors. I think sensible Trinnies should see the synergies and growth potential of the new company when they vote.