Tribal Share Discussion Threads

[illtud] 25/2/2014 16:55

Nice little jump at the end of today.

Somebody must be expecting good news on the 14th.

[deltrotter] 24/2/2014 12:30

looks that way for the last week mick33.

[mick33] 24/2/2014 11:31

Ummmm
nice tight spread and a bit of selling not causing a ripple , maybe we have a large buyer in the background.

[welsheagle] 15/2/2014 20:17

Thanks for the information, Illtud.

[illtud] 13/2/2014 21:37

I suppose it is possible to say that there is a cup and handle there but that the cup formed from October to January and the handle since January.

As I said, I'm a novice when it comes to charts.

illtud

[illtud] 13/2/2014 21:29

But I still like the way the share price has gone today.

[illtud] 13/2/2014 21:28

If you believe in it, it's supposed to indicate the probability of a strong surge in the share price

The cup, some say bowl, is formed by a wave of selling followed by a period of relative stability followed by a new wave of buying.

There is then a short period of relatively weak selling, maybe caused by profit taking. That might be followed by a pause for breath. Then the right hand side of the handle forms as buyers come back in and the share price takes off.

The cup and handle pattern followed by a strong increase in the share price has occured often enough to be written about in numerous books on share dealing.

Unfortunately, there is no guarantee that the rise in the share price will actually happen. If we are lucky, it might this time.

Having said that, this one doesn't really look all that much like a cup and handle to me after all.

illtud

[welsheagle] 13/2/2014 20:16

Illtud, What is significance of a cup and handle

[illtud] 13/2/2014 14:20

For any chartists out there, it looks as if a cup and handle is forming.

illtud

[simon gordon] 07/2/2014 14:10

If I post the HTML code it doesn't appear. I will find the ADVFN thread which has instructions on how to do it, back in a short while.

======

There is a thread for HTML users but I can't find it, the best thing to do is go to the FXD thread and ask Fingers and the fellow readers how to post a chart, they will either show you to do it or point you in the right direction.

Good luck

[gomore] 07/2/2014 13:16

thanks for that Simon. How do you post the charts onto the thread? It won't allow me to paste anything like that in a reply.

[simon gordon] 07/2/2014 12:53

Yesterday it was the eighth largest daily volume traded in near-on nine years:

[hastings] 01/2/2014 20:42

Nothing new or original,but some thoughts that may be of interest.

[deltrotter] 21/1/2014 11:46

LOL - will do. UBC is, as I say, a cracking start.

Vancouver a wonderful place to visit in the summer...

[simon gordon] 21/1/2014 11:38

Del,

Ace!

If you ever get a sniff that they're close to landing an Ivy League uni don't forget to post :-)

[deltrotter] 21/1/2014 10:42

Yes, after seeing your post on CR's thread last week Simon. I work for a top 10 Uni that uses SITS - and hadn't realised that Tribal were the owner.

It is so integrated into the core of the Uni that it would be nightmare to replace - hence why I expect recurring revenues are strong. Also, most Uni's are the same (they recruit and then 'manage' students) so that the product will work well at nearly all Uni's.

Crack the US and this, as you say, is heading in the FTSE 250.

[simon gordon] 21/1/2014 10:11

Del,

Good to hear.

Do you hold?

[deltrotter] 21/1/2014 08:22

Yup, good post Simon. I was at UBC last May and they mentioned they were getting SITS. UBC is a great Canadian Uni with a leading worldwide reputation (Top 30 in the world). A great customer to have on their books IMO.

Again, I would reiterate, once you starts using SITS you would struggle to stop using it - it becomes an absolute CORE information system.

[illtud] 20/1/2014 22:31

Good post, simon. It is why I'm invested. As far as I'm concerned, Tribal is a world beater. It will just take time for everyone to realise it.

illtud

[simon gordon] 19/1/2014 14:03

This was an interesting sentence from the Tech Market View analysis on the y/e Trading Update:

"We will be taking a closer look at the higher and further education markets later in the year; several of the big SIs, as well as some software providers, have singled out the sector as a target growth market."

TRB are forecast to do PBT c.£16m in y/e 2015, that is without any upgrades, say with a fair wind they do PBT c.£18m, in a red hot tech scene with, maybe, big hungry buyers after the de facto leader in Uni software in the UK & Oz, who's just setting off to conquer North America, what kind of multiple would a buyer have to pay? 10x, 15x, 20x?

10x = £180m = 192p

15x = £270m = 288p

20x = £360m = 384p

[deltrotter] 16/1/2014 12:19

I work at a Uni that literally runs on SITS. Once you do that then there is no turning back so I would have thought recurring revenue was good. You also have to buy in consultancy to make changes to the system for localisation.

[simon gordon] 16/1/2014 10:25

Tech Market View - 16/1/14:

Tribal dances its way to the end of FY13

The positive updates keep coming from Tribal Group, the systems and solutions provider to the education, learning and training markets (see Tribal still on track). This time its trading update ahead of its full year results (due in March) highlights a stronger than expected final quarter (to end December); PBT and EPS will therefore be better than previous expectations. Net debt has also reduced significantly over the twelve months period: from £9.9m to £4.6m. The share price in early trading is up over 7%. In May things had not been looking quite so positive when the company reported a drop in the order book (see Tribal orders drop), so it looks like Tribal cut its cost base in anticipation of a far worse year.

It appears that the 'Systems' business has made particularly good progress, with major education management system projects "on track" and a healthy level of opportunities cited in the UK and internationally. Notably, the higher education market is singled out as having a particularly high level of opportunities. We will be taking a closer look at the higher and further education markets later in the year; several of the big SIs, as well as some software providers, have singled out the sector as a target growth market.

The Solutions business, meanwhile, performed "as anticipated". In the UK, quality assurance work remains on track and performance improvement activities had a strong end to the year. In May 2013, a drop in the order book was largely blamed on a quiet UK market for 'Solutions'.

Overall, the order book is described as "resilient"; though it is down from £168m (at the same time last year) to £129m, mainly due to the maturity of the company's Ofsted inspection contracts. Tribal says that "technology is becoming increasingly pervasive throughout (its) work" – thus validating the Group's decision at the start of 2013 to refocus the Solutions business around offering services founded upon software-based tools.

[irchris] 16/1/2014 08:48

Really positive Trading Update from Tribal Group plc this morning, profits expected to be up, debt down, full order book, strong demand in international markets for many new sales :

" ... the Board now anticipates that adjusted profit before tax and earnings per share for the year ended 31 December 2013 will be better than previous expectations ...

... Tribal has continued to generate good operating cash flow and, combined with the benefit of focussed working capital management, net debt at the end of December 2013 was £4.6m (1 January 2013: £9.9m) ...

... Tribal's order book at 31 December 2013 remains resilient at £129m ... "

[iandippie] 16/1/2014 08:07

Wow! New high today?....Thank you (again) SCSW. :-)