Tribal Share Discussion Threads

[modform] 18/2/2016 18:46

Sometimes the share price falls so much that a great company could become so cheap, I am in from 23.19p and hoping for a great recovery.

[edwardt] 18/2/2016 13:43

never understood the point of watchlists!

[masurenguy] 18/2/2016 10:09

No announcement yet of any suggested price on the proposed placing announced in December.

"The Board is proposing an equity rights issue (the "Rights Issue") of up to GBP35 million in the first quarter of 2016, in respect of which GBP30 million is fully underwritten on a standby basis by Investec pursuant to a standby underwriting agreement entered into today. The proceeds of the Rights Issue will be used primarily to reduce debt, and for general working capital purposes" RNS 14/12/15

The new CEO starts a week on Monday so that will probably be one of his very first priorities.

I've no position here yet but it remains on my Watchlist.

[bottomfisher] 18/2/2016 09:45

Strategic Equity Capital, which owns 8.3% of Tribal, released first half results this morning. Here are its comments on Tribal, which was its worst performing investment over the last six months.

"Tribal delivered a brace of profit warnings in October 2015 and late December 2015, following tougher trading in the first part of 2015. The company has experienced a perfect storm during 2015 of slightly lower sales win rates, delayed project implementation at large Australian customers, an inflexible and high cost base, combined with a balance sheet which has been less resilient than it appeared. In November, Tribal Group announced the simultaneous appointment of a new chairman and senior independent director, both of whom hold the same position at Servelec, the Company’s largest holding. At the same time as the December 2015 profit warning, it announced a fully underwritten standby rights issue of up to £35m to repair balance sheet and improve financial flexibility.

At the beginning of the period, the company was forecast to generate c.£15m profit before tax compared to the current forecast out turn of £3.1m for 2015. The £15m is a level of profitability which we believe should be largely underpinned by the sticky and highly profitable support and maintenance revenues of more than £30m generated by its electronic student record system division. These profits should be supplemented by new business wins and non-Ofsted profits from its Quality Assurance division. Our primary customer referencing suggests that the company’s products are well regarded and there is considerable ongoing demand. To date, this has clearly been an exceptionally disappointing investment. However, with a reconstituted board, and post the recapitalisation of the balance sheet, we believe that there are strong prospects for considerable value recovery over the medium-term."

[edwardt] 18/2/2016 08:40

strategic equity results are just out - tribal is a large position in fund and manager gives a good summary of the situation - happy reading.

[rjmahan] 18/2/2016 06:40

No, but economically it doesnt matter...

[shaunstar] 17/2/2016 17:53

Sorry if this has been covered already.... do we have any idea what price the rights issue?

[rjmahan] 21/12/2015 11:57

I like the business and its been on my watch list for a long time...

I work with its products so know how difficult it could be for a competitor.

Blog post here:

hxxps://deepvalueinvestments.wordpress.com/2015/12/21/tribal-trb-recovery-play-cheap-business-with-a-defendable-moat/

[she-ra] 18/12/2015 16:51

Some quite large buys. Takeover rumour this weekend maybe? I'll take anything to get of here.

[topvest] 16/12/2015 19:50

Yes, you might be right. That would be a good strategy. Basically they have lost pretty much ALL of shareholder value. Expect the rights issue to be at 10p or something. Trouble is with this company - it has large lumpy contracts (which have dried-up), increased competition and very poor cash conversion. I'm not sure its investable at all at the moment.

[edmondj] 14/12/2015 15:07

Maybe Investec's terms involved putting the info out and seeing where the stock settled, before agreeing price. That would be my line if underwriter!

[topvest] 14/12/2015 13:39

It seems very odd to me that they can sign an underwriting agreement for a rights issue and get away without naming the price. Seen this before. Rather dodgy as it must be price sensitive information that should be disclosed. Looks like it may be at some crazy price of well below 30p - possibly 10p or something. I see Paul Scott has entered today. Think I will hold off for now, but on my watch list.

[market sniper3] 14/12/2015 08:50

lOVELY short, got in first thing.

No doubt further press articles tomorrow will knock them further down.

[simon gordon] 14/12/2015 08:29

This even worse than the last time they ran aground. Joined the 90 per cent club.

[deanroberthunt] 14/12/2015 08:23

Oh dear

how the mighty have fallen....

[pugugly] 27/11/2015 13:07

Looks like L&G have decided to cut their position - Message received NO FUTURE -or sP still to high cut risk now .



anyone any views as to how far thsis could fall ?

[pugugly] 19/10/2015 08:44

If it recovers at all - I did not like the point of more aggessive competition. The cost of codeing is going down and the mechanics (I am told) are becoming simpler - So I suspect Tribal will have to prune overheads significantly. Also (imo) managment may have been seduced by the prospect of the super large contracts and have lost the wide spread of customers so the loss of a few is not too big a hit on revenue. A classic managment error.

[topvest] 19/10/2015 08:17

Yes, suspect these are heading closer to 50p than a £1. Will take 2/3 years to recover lost ground. One to put on the watch list now.

[simon gordon] 19/10/2015 07:11

That's a stinker of a trading update, looks like it will be heading below a quid, best hope now is a takeover, other than that the story looks beached for now.

[walloon3] 12/8/2015 20:49

free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[simon gordon] 12/8/2015 09:59

Dow Jones Newswire:

0820 GMT N+1 Singer cuts its estimates for educational software provider Tribal Group PLC after the company reported a 60% fall in first-half adjusted pretax profit due to lower sales and impairment costs. The brokerage says Tribal's investment case remains intact, but believes that some positive contract sales momentum is needed for shares to re-rate from current levels. N+1 Singer has reduced its 2015 adjusted pretax profit estimate to GBP13.3M, from GBP15.2M and EPS forecast to 10.8P, from 12.4P. Tribal shares traded 6.0% lower at 152P.

[daijavu] 23/5/2015 09:22

IMHO there are a few factors that might be having an effect at the moment, including the uncertainty about the future of the school inspection contracts in England, difficulties in breaking into the US market, saturation point being approached with SITS Vision in easily accessible markets. The dearth of announcements from the Bod - they are usually uncommunicative anyway - might not be helping.

A bit of positive news would help

[simon gordon] 19/5/2015 16:59

Wonder if the CFO will leave next, he did sell shares recently and both he and the departing CEO exercised options.