Tribal Share Discussion Threads

[a2584728] 05/4/2017 08:27

The low EBIT, makes it undervalued in the sector, I am actually out as of today, transferred some into MIN and CHAR

[rjmahan] 04/4/2017 23:47

Arguably low EBITDA could yet rise further with cost cuts.... Margins too low given product...

[checkers2] 03/4/2017 12:38

Hi A2584728,

Why do you say undervalued - can you justify that, with some data? Its on more than 1 x Sales and 20 x Ebitda. A good business, a possible takeover target, but not sure if I would say undervalued.

[a2584728] 30/3/2017 09:38

Well under valued.

[a2584728] 10/3/2017 10:40

I have a warm feeling here, I think? They have been doing the rounds in the City and been well received. May see some INstitutional investors coming on board, I would not be surprised to see some suitors at this level as well.

[shamusor] 09/3/2017 22:48

Thanks rjmahan.
I was on jobs.ac.uk earlier and I have since landed a contract to convert data for an HE migration for a UK University.

[geheimnis2] 15/2/2017 08:03

Great post A2

[a2584728] 14/2/2017 11:55

G yes I like them here for a bounce. Going concern statement helps so any news from here should see them rise imho

[geheimnis2] 13/2/2017 19:38

Mmmmmm.....looking positive here?

[a2584728] 13/2/2017 19:30

I shall be starting to buy these over the coming days, looking for 40% in 6 months, I think they will bounce.

[a2584728] 13/2/2017 12:58

Interesting movement on lots of buys ?

[rjmahan] 05/1/2017 15:56

shamusor - I work in HE and tribal are utterly dominant...

There are economies of scale and large switching costs here.

Why do you think otherwise ?

Lots of jobs in HE data on jobs.ac.uk also via various mailing lists...

[shoee62] 05/1/2017 14:59

Lifting finally from long flat base. Figures due in early March?

[shamusor] 29/11/2016 20:57

Just noted that Jenzabar's increase in ownership is now at 13%. Interesting when Jamie has informed me that Tribal has missed out on a bid within its installed client base to competitors in Australia; and I see here that current clients have been going to market to replace Tribal in the UK.
Continuing work in this space is not looking great.
I also see that Unit4 (who could have been a Tribal suitor) now has its own Cloud SMS based on the MS Azure platform and has signed up the University of Aberdeen already. not a good sign for what is already a tight UK SMS Market for Tribal.

[checkers2] 05/11/2016 08:09

Anyone have a take on privately owned Jenzabar's increase in ownership, now more than 12%, they are a leading player in NA education space, while Tribal seems also a leader in same sector different geography.

The way I see it they are either going to use their shareholding to make them cross-sale their products/products or make an offer for whole company.

[shamusor] 19/9/2016 22:57

Half Year results out and no dividend payment as expected. Changing the external auditors after the bad report at the end of last year is a bit suspect, and the directors/board seem to be at pains to state that they believe the company is 'a going concern'. Perhaps stressed too much.

Financials do not show any marked improvement and like last year when Tribal had so much trouble, it 'expects' to see revenue improvements in the second half of the year. Given the results from Queensland, NSW and others, and the current resource capacity and capability issues - revenue is still likely to be delayed or stagnant affecting their cash-flow and sustainability.

Improvement may happen in the UK where they are improving their government contract extension (like they have in New Zealand), but they are reducing their involvement here. That is not expected to improve in Australia as it is imminent that NSW will announce the signing of a new supplier for the TAFE LMBR program (and likely in the same direction as Queensland - so good for Australian firms and the share market). they have been winding down their pool of core people here for some time since Queensland TAFE announcement and the reduction now seems like the company's main cost-saving strategy.

Expect increased competition on the other side of the Tasman as Technology One develop their student apps for that market. Word from Brizzy is they will now develop a New Zealand centric version from next year irrespective of whether they have a client signed up. Too late to capture the university market probably but might make inroads to the TAFE sector which Tribal are hurting in already.

Resources are tight on implementation sites and staff from Tribal are being poached by clients everywhere putting pressure on delivery times and expertise available. This has impacted Deakin and evidently Waikato resources in New Zealand.

Tough times still ahead for Tribal.

[shamusor] 12/6/2016 21:48

June 4 - New South Wales - as reported in the Sydney Morning Herald.

Mark Scott has been appointed secretary of the NSW Department of Education, following 10 years as Managing Director of the ABC.

The appointment heralds the "opportunity" for the Department to change direction and cancel the NSW LMBR program under the notion it was devised and run under previous management and ensures any inquiry would not find fault with the current senior Department personnel.

[shamusor] 09/6/2016 21:11

Page 13 of the Daily Telegraph - is in print only.
IT reboot for TAFES
The Baird government will withdraw the controversial Learning Business and Management Reform computer system from TAFEs.
Minister for TAFE John Barilaro is expected to make the announcement later this month, after revelations that more than $600 million - more than the total amount budgeted for the entire scheme - had been spent rolling it out to just 229 of 2218 of the state's schools.
The scheme, which was championed by Education Minister Adrian Piccolo, has been beset with technical problems and, in some cases, has forced pilot schools to employ extra administrative staff to deal with it.

So, this will be front page once formally announced and confirming the recommendation (#14) of the standing committee of the NSW Legislative Council, probably in the next week or two.
Then Tribal will have its bank test at the end of the month knowing full well that this value of this contract $67 million) will not be forthcoming and in fact under the contract other costs may be recovered by the State.
Other parties to the contract are Anderson Consulting and SAP being the big boys on the block so you know they have their lawyers on speed dial.
Then there is Barilaro who is gunning for Piccolo's job as Deputy Leader of the party.
Between the formal announcement and the bank test expect Tribal's share price to plummet as the finger pointing starts and the lawyers get involved.
It will be stormy days ahead for Tribal as this plays out.

[shamusor] 01/6/2016 02:05

Confirmed from sources earlier yesterday that the University in question is Canterbury University in NZ. It has spent its entire project budget (some $15+m) and has only got admissions and enrollments working and lots of problems due to customisations and compromised regulatory reporting processes to their tertiary masters (called TEC evidently).
They are in the interim stopping development of SITS and focusing on delivery of functions from their internal SMS with a call to be made later (as in years later) on whether to take up the implementation again or start over.
As they are still rebuilding from the earthquake, money is tight.
That means to date there is 1 successful implementation in NZ of 3 undertaken or currently underway.
Note in June the NSW government will announce their plans for LMBR and if they will continue with EBS (especially) or ditch it as recommended by the Standing Committee of their Legislative Council. The Australian States and Federal government are all in a current election cycle and the massive blow-out of LMBR is a political football at the moment and a big embarrassment to the state govt and incumbent ministers. The contract is worth $67m to Tribal based on their renegotiation here last year.

[welsheagle] 26/5/2016 14:15

Thanks for the info, shamusor