Soco Share Discussion Threads

[lauders] 17/12/2016 00:12

Can't disappoint - Wow look at the sudden rise! Up we go again..... Still a long way to go and will it actually ever get back to 200p?

Would be nice to have some really positive news from SIA so I can come back and ONLY post nice things about them ;-)

[emptyend] 16/12/2016 17:38

LOL kenobi. I must say that the same thought occurred to me.Its fairly rare that someone is in such a hurry to buy 1/2mn shares at the highs of the day in a Friday closing auction.As for richalert's comment, I don't see fracking as being "dominant". Certainly it is more significant than I'd expected (remember that we once thought that fracking would cease below $70), but lets see how it looks in a year's time.....

[richalert] 16/12/2016 17:28

I think Lauders post reflected the feelings of a long term holder still stuck around 150p. Nobodies fault really. Well maybe Saudis and Opec, but I for one never thought fracking would become so dominant.

[kenobi] 16/12/2016 17:12

pretty sudden reversal, no doubt Lauders will pop by shortly and note the sudden rise

[emptyend] 16/12/2016 16:42

Interesting day....and closing auction

[lauders] 15/12/2016 11:39

Back down we go! From 150p to 143p pretty sharpish! Oh well, was looking better for a while ;-)

[emptyend] 13/12/2016 10:24

Wouldn't be surprised if the FFDP and the 125/6 deal were signed at the same time. Unlike the UK, VN remains open for business in the closing weeks of December.

[kenobi] 13/12/2016 10:15

well I would hope that where are we with that $50m from the mongolian deal,

and

when are we going to be able to sign off the fdp which we've been talking about well a long time now, at the agm there was talk of signing it in september/october,
given that there's likely nothing dramatic in it, perhaps there's an issue.

Perhaps the partners don't want to spend money developing ?

Perhaps Vietnam has some policy about not expanding production while prices are low ?

I don't know, hopefully recent rises will increase the appetite for development.

K

[emptyend] 13/12/2016 09:57

Board meeting this week, I expect. Wonder what is on the agenda.....and whether any news will follow.

[emptyend] 12/12/2016 09:49

.....in 2004/5 there was a 47% rise between this time in December and 14th Jan. No material news in that time.Inertia may appear huge, but a shove from somewhere could generate material momentum before it looks over-priced vs indebted peers.....

[lauders] 12/12/2016 09:30

There you have it EE. Many don't have these long term views and there is a case to be made that the stock exchange is becoming one giant electronic (no traders on the floor anymore) system where emotions are gradually being removed by algorithms!

[emptyend] 12/12/2016 09:27

At the margin, Lauders. But the extent of the value differential is now vast...and, whilst day traders will doubtless head for others, those more concerned about long-term valuations should be taking quite a different view!At the lows in early 2016, TLW and SIA were both at 120p. They aren't now......Granted Tullow has more operational gearing to the oil price. They also have a pile of debt that they put off paying down.Possible New Year cash call in Tullow to pay down debt?? I'd certainly be a seller there and a buyer here on any view longer than a month.

[lauders] 12/12/2016 09:16

Apparently TLW have about a 15% short on them so there is money to be made by going long there with the new interest in oil EE. People are less likely to look at the likes of SIA when better money can be made?

[nigelpm] 12/12/2016 09:13

Utter madness - bought yet more!

[emptyend] 12/12/2016 09:03

Lauders/RichalertRemembe that Fidelity recently announced a 5% stake. Rather puzzling that the rest seem obsessed by trading PMO/TLW as oil price proxies, ignoring their corporate vulnerabilities, whilst at the same time ignoring SIA.Many will effectively be closing their year-end books off this week and, quite possibly, will miss getting positioned in SIA. Some years ago there was news and a big move in the last week of the year.....perhaps this will be another occasion, given the news flagged in mid-Nov?

[lauders] 12/12/2016 08:49

Perhaps some news on two fronts will be due out before the year end. The first on this from the last update?

-- The PetroVietnam Drilling PVD-6 rig is currently batch drilling the TGT-27P and TGT-28P wells. The rig is drilling the second 16" hole section at approx. 1,000 metres Measured Depth.

If anything comes of this perhaps the institutions will regain focus?

[richalert] 12/12/2016 08:35

Yes I think this may be the problem Lauder's. Very low volumes.

[richalert] 12/12/2016 08:34

Surely a price of 170 p would be realistic now but the bigger buyers do not seem interested.

[richalert] 12/12/2016 08:31

Surely at $50-$60 price profitability should be pretty good. They have cut back capital expenditure, a good dividend could be on offer this next year, and they have no debt, So risk is largely only geo-political and that does not seem high at the moment. Quite the opposite in fact.

[lauders] 12/12/2016 08:28

Unfortunately it is incredibly unloved with institutions it would seem! If they start buying in quantity we might actually get somewhere.

[richalert] 12/12/2016 08:25

Around 10% gains in share price on many oil producers. 1% gain on Soco. What is wrong with this company?

[emptyend] 12/12/2016 06:13

Steve,I think they are certainly net importers if you include products but not often just for crude: ....there are also Russian interests in VN. Whatever the case, Brent has moved up to about $57. At some point, investors should start to reweight the oil sector.......

[steve73] 12/12/2016 04:00

ee - I'm pretty sure VN is still a net importer of oil so it wouldn't be in its interests to see a price rise.

I haven't checked in detail, but I'd be surprised if any of the NOPEC countries agreeing to cut back were net importers.

[emptyend] 11/12/2016 17:28

...not VN, I see.....

[lauders] 10/12/2016 05:01

One I missed from mid-November:



This oil producer could pump cash

Today's statement from Vietnam-focused oil producer Soco International contained the disappointing news that a $52.7m payment due to the firm from a Chinese company will be delayed for "at least 30 days".

Soco says that the company, a subsidiary of the China National Petroleum Company (CNPC), does acknowledge the debt, but has requested technical information about the asset from CNPC. In the meantime, Soco remains well financed, with net cash of $83m and no debt.

Indeed, I believe Soco's ability to generate cash could improve rapidly if the price of oil rises. The group's breaks even on cash flow in the "low $20s" per barrel. This suggests to me that a relatively small increase in the price of oil would be enough to trigger a sharp increase in Soco's free cash flow and operating profit.

Oil from Soco's Vietnamese fields usually sells at a premium over Brent Crude of about $1 per barrel. If the oil price stabilises above $50 in 2017, I'd expect earnings guidance for Soco to be significantly upgraded. It's also worth noting that the group's dividend is expected to rise to about 6.1p per share in 2017, giving a forecast yield of 4.5%.

With Soco shares trading at a discount of about 15% to their tangible book value, I believe this stock remains a medium-term buy.

When the piece was typed the price was around the mid-130's now we are at 150p. The 30 day period for the payment is looming but the word "at least" was used before the period so it could be any time after. Not going to get too enthusiastic about the time -frame, just hope the money IS paid. Would probably help the share-price a bit more!