Soco Share Discussion Threads

[linton5] 09/2/2017 16:12

I'm going to buy here very soon,cracking medium termer keep going south Soco

[emptyend] 08/2/2017 08:29

TLW net debt up by $760mn. Capex being slashed, hedges running off quickly........you'd think that some other companies would start getting some credit for sound balance sheet management and cash?

[kenobi] 03/2/2017 16:49

I think we'll all like that ee !!!

K

[kenobi] 03/2/2017 15:51

quiet agree ee, we'd probably be in a far different position if soco didn't have to get concensus with the partners. Probably better, although they were very keen on spending a lot of money on a pipeline that might not have looked such a good investment for the last few years.

However it's all part of the deal, soco are a small company, and partner with others.
What is frustrating is when everyone does seem to be in agreement, like the fdp, and it takes such a long time to get official sanction. It would have been much better for soco if it had been able to announce the fdp at this op update.

K

[emptyend] 03/2/2017 14:18

Quite so..... :-)Though of course it is a bit more accurate for him to make that claim now, than it has been for many years of such posts.Credit where due though.....SOCO outperformed in the 15 year run-up to the price collapse, and outperformed during the downturn. Now it has underperformed in the first 9 months or so of the upturn (largely due to circumstances beyond management control, such as getting the partners to agree the FFDP a year earlier than they did).Personally I'll take 9 months or so of underperformance in the 18 years I've held the shares, if I get outperformance for the other 17 years.

[pumph] 03/2/2017 14:06

I check this board every so often just to remind myself and everyone else how incredibly smart and smug I am, blah blah blah...

[emptyend] 03/2/2017 13:20

Yawn. As you know, kenmitch, I haven't suggested for many years that SOCO was somehow "the best" share in the sector. You want to assert otherwise? - in that case produce one post in evidence......But neither is it that bad - and, despite not shooting the lights out for years, it has been consistently in the top half of performers in the sector each year for the last decade or so.

[kenmitch] 03/2/2017 12:42

Ed 123

Excellent posts. I sold Soco a long time ago as it's been obvious for years that Soco's great days were behind them. I have a look here occasionally to see if the "expert" and his few remaining followers have come to their senses yet.

Only those falling in love with a share hold on and post with great authority why it remains a sound investment when anyone looking at basic investment facts can see if wanting to invest in the oil sector there were far better shares available. Even BP and Shell have soared while Soco has drifted ever lower.

On another bb is another genuine expert,and this time on Torotrak. His technical knowledge is awesome as is the technical knowledge of the Soco expert here. The other expert is still keen on TRK at 1p and all the way down from £6. Being an expert on a duff share is pointless.



b

[emptyend] 03/2/2017 10:56

Yes.Guidance is down because the main field will be offline for nearly a month due to measures to raise production - which is why I mention the expected exit rate.Current oil prices are around $10 higher than last year's average and the company has said is expecting to pay dividends again in 2017 as it did last year. Capex is in the same order of size in 2017 as in 2016.Financially I'd expect 2017 to be quite similar to 2016 with the 20% higher oil price offsetting the lower production.

[keith95] 03/2/2017 10:32

Well guidance for 2017 is down to 8,000 bopd as the bottom end so that is quite a hit but there seem to be new plays coming on line - anyone any ideas how much will be added going forward? Seems a little opaque - and then there is the debt owed but if new drilling is on the horizon I doubt if much will now be returned to shareholders.

So with current oil prices and Soco realizing around $50 per bbl the company will just about break even in the next 6 months ... anyone disagree?

[emptyend] 03/2/2017 09:52

Just re the production guidance for 2017, I'd glossed over the fact that the TGT expected shut-ins were quantified as close to 30 days.......so it is hardly surprising that guidance is as low as it is, given that restarts aren't quite as simple as turning on a tap at full flow.I understand that production at the end of the year is likely to be at or a bit above current levels......so 10,000bopd ishIf they can get some deals and drilling done this year, I'd expect a more positive outlook for 2018 - especially if the oil supply glut clears as the Saudis are forecasting.

[emptyend] 03/2/2017 08:39

There are two points about timing:1) It isn't possible to drill and develop their VN assets unless the JOC partners agree to do so. That is effectively a once-a-year opportunity.....and they now have that agreement, having failed to get it in late 2015 when the markets were still very vulnerable.2) In contrast to the USA, where companies have been put out of business and assets recycled to better-financed buyers, elsewhere banks have generally held on to their over-exposed positions in over-indebted companies, rather than forcing asset sales and liquidations for fear of making their overall situation worse. Only this week we had the last in a series of RNSs from PMO confirming that the banks had waived their covenant tests for another month. And there remain plenty of smaller companies with unfinanceable work programmes or undeveloped assets. I believe that SOCO have now seen the evidence that this has started to change......private equity is getting involved, more deals are being done by the majors (eg Shell this week) and so, at last, there are opportunities for growth. The new team should be able to hit the ground running, since most people who have been seen to be in the market for assets will have a very good understanding of what is out there and what needs to happen to get deals done.Its all much easier from an armchair.

[greyingsurfer] 03/2/2017 07:27

One could argue that more aggression last year would have been better rewarded - but oil bear markets can last for years - and Soco seem to be moving on the back of the Trump rally where they can presumably see some sustained action in the market going forwards so I think they have timed their moves with one eye on caution which is pleasing.There may be something in that. However, it would also be a mistake to assume that this is a new process they are just starting, whereas it is most likely that an ongoing process has reached a stage where it makes sense create a dedicated unit to continue,and expand, the work. We have no idea what opportunities they have been examining over the past years - but I'd be quite sure it's been happening.Peter

[keith95] 03/2/2017 01:44

Ed 123 makes point some fair some unfair - timing the bottom of any market is always easy with hindsight - and Soco battened down the hatches during the lean period. One could argue that more aggression last year would have been better rewarded - but oil bear markets can last for years - and Soco seem to be moving on the back of the Trump rally where they can presumably see some sustained action in the market going forwards so I think they have timed their moves with one eye on caution which is pleasing.

Markets look forward - one only has to see how the gold and silver space has taken off this last year to be reminded that when things move in the commodity space it is exciting which ever way things go.

Downtime is costing the loss in oil production this year - and better to do so now, and look to grow production than do nothing.

Is one's money better placed elsewhere? Guess we find out next year ;)

[nigelpm] 02/2/2017 15:58

that would be true ;-)

[nigelpm] 02/2/2017 15:29

Surprised to see a lack of director buying at these levels - just an obs.

[kenobi] 02/2/2017 15:17

down 8% just now at 142, no the market isn't impressed,

Hopefully, we'll get a bit more action from the vietnamese government shortly,

K

[ed 123] 02/2/2017 15:06

Nice little story about India. Thanks, emptyend. :-)

How does it impact on Soco, though?

Are you trying to say it's good news for Soco, something to offset today's rns?

[emptyend] 02/2/2017 14:52

https://www.ft.com/content/18d1fd5a-e914-11e6-893c-082c54a7f539

[ed 123] 02/2/2017 14:31

Good afternoon, emptyend!

You wrote,

... no RNS yet on the FFDP because, although it is now all agreed and is actually being put into action, the Government hasn't yet formally put pen to paper.

Go on then, let's suppose for a moment that your comment is not just a result of your living in 'emptyland'. Today's rns stated,

The FFDP includes additional wells and facilities options to increase total fluid-handling capacity.

Would you mind sharing with readers of this board the chosen facility option to increase total fluid handling? And if, as you say, the agreement is being put into action, does your source of information give you permission also to divulge the planned TGT output when all these TGT development plans have been effected?

Feel free to use another identity if 'emptyend' is still not communicating with me.

Back to today's update, it was of course poor. 2016 output below guidance. 2017 output will be even lower. No more money received from Daqing. No formal approval of the TGT FFDP. Hint that the Lidongo discovery may not be commercially viable under the present licence terms. MPS block - lost money.

And the future? Going to spend money on blocks 125 and 126 and presumably on whatever the new business development department comes up with. So, when they get more money from Daqing, how much will be returned to shareholders?

Holders had a couple of hours to offload shares around the 151p mark this morning. Now selling for around 146p. High volume and fallen price - on its way down to fair value?

I don't doubt you and others made a lot of money several years ago on Soco but it has been a poor investment since its peak. It now stands at only about a quarter of its peak value. Also, what are its prospects moving forward? Is it honestly the best place for your money out of all the thousands of stocks traded on the London exchange?

I wish you well but fear you may not be your own best friend. ;-O

[greyingsurfer] 02/2/2017 13:49

K, there are clearly documents establishing the agreement - we can be sure it wasn't finally agreed over a glass of yaks milk in a yurt. And there is no more conclusive way of establishing that you acknowledge an agreement than making a part payment - and then start talking about things like exchange controls as reasons why you aren't paying all now. So, no, I have no real concerns that Soco can prove their entitlement in court. The possibility of Daqing refusing to accept a court ruling in some way must exist, but I rate that as very low.Peter

[emptyend] 02/2/2017 13:38

...ps...no listed company would ever present something as a fact in an RNS that they haven't got written evidence of. This is why there has been no RNS yet on the FFDP because, although it is now all agreed and is actually being put into action, the Government hasn't yet formally put pen to paper.Companies have all kinds of "understandings" that XYZ will happen but until there is a deal or agreement in writing they don't get RNS'd.

[emptyend] 02/2/2017 13:22

kenobi,Certainly on my enquiries pre-Christmas the company believed that the form they had then would stand up in court. Since then, they have had further written confirmations of the debt being acknowledged by the parent company.

[kenobi] 02/2/2017 13:11

Peter,

The only thing I would say is we have to be careful what we "know",
do we really know they acknowledge the rest is due ?

how have they done this ? officially in a form that would be acceptable in court ?

If not, the acknowledgement which SOCO feels it has could be worth nothing.

K