Soco Share Discussion Threads

[serratia] 07/11/2016 12:03

O/T,

Good comments on the US election. UK similarities ? The election - Making difficult choices.

hxxp://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethoughts

[emptyend] 07/11/2016 11:57

I put Prof Dougan in the "bought and paid for idiots" bin 6 months ago. Anyone who listens to him needs their heads testing.I'll be interested in the result of the US election, which I rather suspect the MSM are getting spectacularly wrong from their cosy coastal vantagepoints. I've put a bit of money on Trump, mainly because I think the democrats are going to get caned in the rustbelt for having ignored their base there for so long. I see shades of the EU Referendum, where it was the north of England (and traditional Labour working class voters) who turned out for Leave. As a result, I think that Trump can win even if he doesn't take Florida (though I expect him to win there too as the Hispanic vote is more split than some assume and the black support for Clinton won't turn out - just as the Labour vote didn't turn out here).Any views, SalvorHardin? Know you follow US closely.Back on topic here, I wonder whether there will be any other news following the OpCom this week. It would be interesting to see some 2017 production guidance once the FFDP is finally agreed.

[tournesol] 07/11/2016 11:46

Stemis

it is clear that Brexit means getting off the EU train. It cannot possibly mean staying on but without a season ticket and then buying a daily ticket every day - which is what we'd be doing if we paid our dues to maintain full access to the single market as soft brexit implies.

Nor can it mean staying on but accepting that the other passengers extended families have a legal right to move into our home whether we like it/them or not.

Nor can it mean that we continue to accept the by laws and regulations of the train company even when we are no longer on the train.

What Brexit means is that we are catching a different train. Not that we are swapping our season ticket for a concessionary pass.

It's not just the conditions of the train that we want to change. Its the destination - we do not want integration into a United Europe.

And its the driver and conductor. We want to employ our own staff not be told who is running the railway - we want to be able to hire and fire them.

And its our independence. We want to decide where the train is going and how fast it goes and when and where it stops.

And before you respond, I should add that all the above is IN MY OPINION. I consider the argument put forward by REMAINERS - and it is almost always Remainers - to the effect that BREXIT is somehow unclear is quite simply nonsense. We had a lot of discussion before the vote. Nobody said let's just switch from a second class carriage to a third class carriage and buy a different ticket - which is what soft brexit would amount to.

I was initially inclined to regard your comments as sincere but you've given the game away with your attack on SOCO investors. You are simply trolling. IN MY OPINION.

[tournesol] 07/11/2016 11:31

Stemis

Responding to every comment by saying "that's just your opinion" is childish and unproductive.

Or perhaps you'd prefer me to say that IN MY OPINION responding to every comment by saying "that's just your opinion" is childish and unproductive.

In any event it's just your opinion.

[kenobi] 07/11/2016 11:13

I find it depressing to read about the water handling, I don't even know how many years we've been talking about the faciities water/oil handling facilities, pretty much from a year after tgt opened and it became a bottle neck. for years we talked about increasing through put past 55k, nothing happened, then increasing so we could have more oil and less water to suit the mix. It's taken so long, that now we have the need for more water and less oil handling. No more mention of negotiating shut offs, the bottle neck is now (and has been at least since the agm), the amount of water coming out with the oil.
I can't even recall the length of time the fdp has taken I think probably as you say 2 years, certainly there were hopes for christmas last year.

It's hard to understand why this should take so long. I can only draw the conclusion that the vietnamese government sees no need to increase production while oil prices are low. There's a certain amount of logic to that. And despite talk at the agm of the new partner, and his links with government, we still don't have an fdp, and I would caution about expecting too much when it does arrive.

But, I hope I'm wrong, that's the next milestone, that and if we should get any money for mongolia coming through.

K

[ed 123] 07/11/2016 10:56

So, there we have it ......... poor production outturn for 2016 and a TGT full field development plan still not approved.

Anyone surprised to read, ... facilities options to increase total fluid-handling capacity. ? I'm not. The plan won't actually be complete when it's published, even after 2 years of work. A completed plan should have included an agreement on water handling.

Why would they go forward with "options"? I have been saying for some time that there is likely to be disagreement and that is the likely reason for the delay. Today's RNS confirms my view. Soco is stymied. It is a minority partner at TGT and must accept the decisions of the majority.

The long delay in publishing the TGT FFDP was embarassing and awkward for management, so they've gone for a minimal agreement, just to get something out there. The options for water handling will have been gone over and over, and now they will remain on the table for partners to kick around even longer.

Today's update, for me, confirms there were, and still are, problems between the partners over the future of TGT. That is not a good place to be for Soco.

If any holders out there think that annual Soco production in any future year will be above 2016's 10k boed, you are likely to be disappointed, imo.

I could ask, why hold a stock with such a miserable outlook?

Oh, I know one reason .... so you can vote for huge remuneration packages each year. :-O

It's no wonder some here prefer to discuss Brexit.

[salvorhardin] 07/11/2016 10:45

"Soco is a classic lesson in confusing luck with ability. Soco made some investors a lot of money through its luck with the drill bit in Vietnam. However these investors convinced themselves (and indeed others) that their gains were really a result of their clever insight into the macro oil environment/appreciation of geology yada yada. "

Funnily enough some of us repeated the same process with several other oil companies over the years (Dana Petroleum, EnCore Oil, JKX, etc.) and ended up with large profits, in some cases allowing us to retire 15-20 years before we had anticipated. If something happens several times there's a good chance that luck does not play a major part (though fans of efficient market theory will convince themselves that it does).

I made almost as much on Dragon Oil as I did on Soco and the main reason behind my investing in the sector was the rapidly increasing level of demand from the emerging market nations (combined with a supply crunch because of the lack of new production coming onstream in the next few years due to low oil prices in the late 1990s). Dragon particularly benefited from this as it had a huge amount of proven reserves which back in 2001 were priced in the ground at something like 5 to 10 cents per barrel.

[mrwaite] 07/11/2016 10:44

The same Prof Michael Dougan who said
"We'll have to work out our 'future relations' with the EU – which could take up to ten years; and finally, we'll have to wait and see if the rest of the world still wants anything to do with us."
EU law has played a major part in making a living for him at Liverpool, including an EU grant, so hardly unbiased is he?

[nigelpm] 07/11/2016 10:42

So those two are firmly at the top of Leave voters!

[stemis] 07/11/2016 10:37

Brexit was very clearly about controlling immigration and not being dictated to on ultimate legal decisions.

Just your opinion. Nothing on the ballot paper about either of those. You could as well say it was about £350m a week for the NHS. Why aren't you demanding that that is honoured? No doubt lots of reasons people voted as they did. All we know from referendum is that majority wanted Brexit. We don't know what type, what conditions, what compromises. Somebody has to make those decisions. Better it's MPs, directly elected by the population, than just Theresa May, who wasnt. But we know why hardliners Brexiteers don't want that and it's nothing to do with democracy (as they've clearly demonstrated).

[nigelpm] 07/11/2016 10:32

Seriously suggest you listen to Professor Michael Dougan on what the single market is than people who clearly only have a superficial knowledge on the subject.

If you mean his YouTube speech - then yes, I have and to be fair I was impressed - the point is though Stemis the people have spoken and given their verdict.

[stemis] 07/11/2016 10:28

"Access to the single market" - yes absolutely - as ee has already stated you don't need to be IN "the single market" to have access!

Seriously suggest you listen to Professor Michael Dougan on what the single market is than people who clearly only have a superficial knowledge on the subject.

[nigelpm] 07/11/2016 10:27

Look like TM is putting action where her mouth is :


Sky Sources: Government is preparing the first draft of a new bill to trigger Article 50 and begin the process of exiting the European Union

Excellent news - get on with it. Sorry for OT once again.

[redartbmud] 07/11/2016 07:48

I know that this is he Brexit board, but I will upset you yet again and provide some Soco information. Now isn't that strange. I assume that it is allowed.

SOCO announces that the 2016 development drilling programme has commenced on the Te Giac Trang ("TGT") Field of Block 16-1, offshore southern Vietnam. The infill wells, the TGT-27P and TGT-28P, will be "batch drilled" with the first well spudded on 6 November 2016 by the PetroVietnam Drilling PVD-6 jack-up rig on the H4- Well Head Platform ("WHP") in the central area of the TGT Field. The TGT partners are reviewing adding a further two infill wells on the southern H5-WHP following the completion of these wells.

SOCO's production guidance range for 2016 has been 10-11,500 BOEPD. Due to the lack of drilling during the year, additional downtime associated with pressure-testing on the Ca Ngu Vang Field, along with the recent stoppage for rig positioning and well intervention work beyond that originally planned, production rates for the full year are expected to be at the lower end of this guidance.

The TGT Full Field Development Plan ("FFDP") partner discussions are in the final stages ahead of formal submission to the relevant authorities. The FFDP includes additional wells and facilities options to increase total fluid-handling capacity. Final submission to the Vietnamese Government is expected after the upcoming Management Committee meetings next week.

Ed Story, President and Chief Executive Officer, commented:

"We are delighted to commence the first development drilling programme on TGT since early 2015. As indicated in our Interim Results, SOCO has the balance sheet strength to fully fund this programme from existing cash resources whilst taking advantage of the low drilling cost environment. Meanwhile, we continue to focus on enhancing the field water-handling capacity and arresting the field decline."

[invisage] 07/11/2016 07:39

Oh dear no news on Mongolia.................

[emptyend] 07/11/2016 07:32

To repeat, single market access is something enjoyed by USA, Japan, India, Russia, Brazil etc....none of whom are members of the Single market and none of whom have trade deals with the EU. None of them have free movement with the EU either!!Posts from Remainiacs like the one above, treating people like idiots, merely get up people's noses and destroy their own (remaining) credibility.Meanwhile there is an operational update out re drilling start on TGT (which is obviously not going to raise production in 2016, given the wells will barely be completed this year).

[joestalin] 07/11/2016 06:57

Polls suggest that majority would accept free movement in exchange for single market access????????????????????????

What polls are these? Polls of those who are suffering with Stockholm syndrome?

[stemis] 07/11/2016 00:11

If we stay in the single market and presumably agree to pay for the privilege as well as accepting that we have to comply with EU regulations and allow free movement of EU citizens then we will not have exited in any meaningful way, will we?

Just your opinion but the referendum is silent on that. Brexit means Brexit. It'll be Brexit if we leave the EU and join EFTA. Result of the referendum complied with. Polls suggest that majority would accept free movement in exchange for single market access. Parliament should vote for that.