Soco Share Discussion Threads

[emptyend] 10/2/2017 12:42

Fair enough, richalert. There is certainly a lack of detail - for this week at least.....

[emptyend] 10/2/2017 12:41

It isn't lack of debt - it is the perception of lack of catalysts. Though the lack of debt does mean fewer assets and thus lower exposure to the oil price.It does seem to me though that the market has gone to sleep a bit here. This seems to be quite a widespread thing, where people assume nothing is happening and they can afford to be out of a share - and then a piece of news emerges to transform a company's prospects. Sound Oil is a good example, albeit more of an explo situation.....flat-lined for months in the first half of last year and then quintupled.There is one thing you can say about the market for E&P shares.....the Efficient Market Hypothesis seems not to apply unless managements trumpet their news right in investors faces on a weekly basis!

[linton5] 10/2/2017 11:57

Soco is almost the worst performer of the last year in oilers. Why is that? Silly me coz it's got no debt. Why did the board not take something on with loads of debt we would be £3 by now just like the rest o them

[churchill2] 10/2/2017 11:39

Interestingly how things can change. After years of under performance Faroe Petroleum has by luck or good judgement turned its prospects round dramatically.

Lets hope that Soco management can do something similar.

[richalert] 10/2/2017 11:11

Thanks for your reply ee. It is the lack of detail that worries me. At a lower price the stock is derisked and I would consider buying back, as I was under water when I sold out. But also have to balance this with my own situation.

[emptyend] 10/2/2017 10:40

Step 1 - arrest decline. Step 2 - reverse itIt'll be in the FFDP, but plainly one issue that will be central for production expansion is changes to the FPSO. I agree we have no detail on that as yet, as the document is still on a minister's desk.....but it is certainly all agreed between the partners, which has been the sticking point since late 2014.

[richalert] 10/2/2017 10:31

If they did not drill development wells now, oil production would be seriously limited. All they are doing is maintaining production at current levels. Where's the news relating to expansion of TGT?

[emptyend] 10/2/2017 08:57

Totally wrong, richalert. If no agreement had been reached they wouldn't be drilling the development wells that they are drilling right now!

[nigelpm] 10/2/2017 07:50

To be fair ed. You do have some form on this. Classic recent example was your posts on Ophir when it was right at the bottom c. 65p.

[ed 123] 09/2/2017 23:16

Tournesol.

I've edited my previous post.

Even though I'm not keen on Soco, at least until I see the future plans for TGT, I still do hope Soco goes well for holders. It remains possible that all expected news will be good: Mongolian payment, TGT plans, Blocks 125 and 126, etc.

As for posting negatively, yes, I've had my doubts for while, viz: my thread started in May 2015, "Stifled Development", referring of course to TGT. I'm not some recently arrived knocker who's trying to win a few pounds on a short trade. I've never short sold Soco; I've only sold my actual holdings. Also, I had held Soco for a few years until selling out and been to a number of the AGMs. Do I really sound like someone who is knocking a share because I think it's near its bottom?

I don't have a problem with emptyend personally - but we do see things differently. Anyway, good to hear that he is having success elsewhere. :-)

[emptyend] 09/2/2017 21:05

As we know, tournesol:1) the recent past is a poor guide to the future2) people posting negatively occurs mainly near the bottom for a share's priceSIA is currently not my largest holding, by the way, thanks to developments elsewhere.But let them have their "fun".........perhaps they have little else in their lives? ;-)

[invisage] 09/2/2017 20:46

Good ole ee....

[tournesol] 09/2/2017 20:44

Ed123

filtered

[tournesol] 09/2/2017 20:44

Ed123

filtered

[linton5] 09/2/2017 19:25

Look at that 2year chart above lower highs and higher lows stick out. So will break either way next few month id say

[ed 123] 09/2/2017 19:05

Well done, Richalert. You should have got 151p per share or thereabouts. Soco closed today at 140p, so you're 7% better off for having sold.

2016 production outturn was below guidance and guidance for 2017 is lower than 2016. The FFDP for Soco's main producing asset is still not signed off and its content is not known to the market.

[emptyend] 09/2/2017 18:38

Oh production guidance. They are expecting the exit rate in 2017 to be at least as high as the exit rate for 2016. The shortfall over the year as a whole is due to higher downtime due to more drilling. Plainly lower cashflow - but also plainly temporary and not geological.I suspect other growth-generative things will more than compensate in share price terms....and hopefully the Mongolian cash will turn up and bolster the cashflow.

[richalert] 09/2/2017 17:54

To be honest if I was younger and had more time I would be inclined to wait for 2 to 3 years, but I haven't.

[richalert] 09/2/2017 17:49

Production guidance.

[richalert] 09/2/2017 17:49

Production guidance.

[emptyend] 09/2/2017 17:32

Which guidance?

[richalert] 09/2/2017 17:18

I have held for 8 years. Sold out immediately I saw the guidance for 2017.

[linton5] 09/2/2017 16:40

It's not a falling knife been basing for 2years now lol. Just boring wearing out the impatient ones

[keith95] 09/2/2017 16:14

"Financially I'd expect 2017 to be quite similar to 2016 with the 20% higher oil price offsetting the lower production."

Which is just about breakeven .... I have only a few now ... falling knives etc. but I would not to be short when Soco gets its money due.

I do liked a company that runs with zero debt - but markets like leverage ... so it would appear.