|DirectorsTalk Technical Analysis ARS , GCM , KRS , MIO , NMG , RCI , SRES
3rd July 2016
|Well that's me out for the time being due to stalling momentum. Trying to cut back on postions at moment with EU vote ahead. Nice profit anyway.
Think this has on a longer time frame got a lot more appreciation to go.|
|All looks very positive. It's been a long time coming, but i'm actually now into profit on my whole holding. The move to a main listing should also help the rating here.|
|The dream is still on|
|Fingers crossed then Thomas.|
|Read finnCap's note on SIRIUS REAL ESTATE, out this morning, by visiting hxxps://www.research-tree.com/company/GG00B1W3VF54
"Trading Well. The group’s last newsflow highlighted the income potential from rental growth, refinancing and additional asset purchases which bodes well for dividend growth, based on a 65% pay-out ratio of FFO. Progress remains inline for 2016 but good progress for 2016/2017 could result in a stronger outcome than originally anticipated ..."|
|Starting to see a little bit of momentum in these.
There has been bullish divergence between price and macd on the daily charts recently.|
I will only buy SRE on the dips,as it is now up with events. The euro is the main cause for concern, and as 21st September approaches, all euro stocks will be brittle again.
Enjoy the Med sun, and all the best, Steve|
|Is that a H&S forming 1 month and 6 month? This has always recovered the short term ones but a 6 month pattern is of more concern. Blackpool Steve Might be able to pick up some at a discount in near future.|
|Well a very positive update today. Should lead to a further hike in the dividend.|
|Already done it my friend, and switched to MGHI/MGHU as attractive dividend.Worth checking out as 60% owned by Prudential
Kind regards, Steve|
|Increasing debt!! LTV is still low but my main concern is the low grade tenants. Many of our tenants are renting a couple of m² of self storage space, if they decide the junk they are storing is worth less than the rent owed they do a bunk. our higher grade tenants rent office space by the hour.
Also, My investment here is worth more than the BODs, why are they not investing their money in here?
Thinking I might take advantage of any peaks and topslice my holding here.|
|peeps cashing in mining stocks looking for another home? JSE possible has the most fluid profits knocking about ATM. If I was going to list a non mining company I would consider JSE too.|
Do you have an understanding regarding the attraction for South African investors in SRE that you could share? Thanks.|
|Some pies do not need u to keep an eye on them, right about the weight though. Good luck ;-)|
|Trouble is with lots of pies Senor,is keeping track of them all ..... + they put weight on
|and that is where we have to tread carefully.
One company that OVER values property with respect to similar properties in the area and with low grade tenants could quote a very LOW LTV rate but struggle to get finance and have to raise capital via placings
Another That UNDER values property with respect to similar properties in the area and with high grade tenants could quote a very HIGH LTV rate but has a lot of support from it's finance provider.
My strategy is to edge my bets and put a finger in both pies and also have lots of other pies too. I like pies a lot.
|That's one of my gripes about SRE, out of their 3000 tenants I cannot get excited about a single one of them, and the deeper I look I realise that some of these quoted tenants are actually just paying for a couple of m² storage space whilst they move house, etc. Other tenants are hot-desking (regis style)and some of the quote m² is actually let by the hour.
During a recession there is always going to be a demand for SME's renting office space by the hour and also for storage facilities, however as market conditions improve and interest rates go up these very transient tenants go AWOL, usually with their account in arrears and the landlord takes a loss.
I was hoping SRE would develop their properties to attract grade A tennants, the likes of Bell, alcatel that take up a full building and have ambitious growth plans, however SRE seem to be edging further towards the office by the hour rates.
This is where the concerns grow, when you rent space by the hour the rate is inflated because it should cover the unoccupied time and it is possible to put a spin on this and make out the rents and hence yields are increasing, not normally a problem unless you are also valuing your property based on quoted rental rates per m².
Also for storage facilities the access, corridors and parking spaces are fixed overheads, if the site has a few tenants renting 4m² storage unit they only quote the unused storage spaces in their % let calculations, however if you consider the total size of the facility the let area is a much smaller %
I do plenty of research on the companies I invest in and to be honest i find SRE are very secretive about the actual address of their properties which hinders investors from doing their own valuation, it might hinder us but it is not impossible. I have a few more details on the properties than many others and my valuation differs from the companies.
Like I have said, there appears to be a very good reason why this company has to reduce it's LTV rate. I suggest you have a good look at the valuation method used.
Still holding here but considering topsliceing profits.|
I remember that yes ALPH has reasonable tenants,but it really doesnt make any difference if they are being screwed by the banks. If I cant pay my way,baliffs come in. ALPH is at that stage through poor mangement. I should have got out of this at the first sign of trouble,but like you, I gave faith to the board until last year,when it became obvious that they were kamakazis.
As for SRE,the graph is the reverse. I used to think that TR Property provided a good 4% divi when it was 50p in 1996,but its still doing similar yields at £3;thats why the board of ALPH are so poor,no excuses.
Enjoy your days in the sun,I will join you in November in Cyprus, as too cold and miserable in the UK, at this time of year.
All the best, Steve|
|I have a mixed bag for income, mainly in funds to avoid having to manage all the time. EMG is fair divi play, and IUKD seems to be doing ok.
They are all dogs until their fortune turns I am still counting on Alph to turn. Have you had a look who Alph's tenants are?|
|Think it only fair to post the discussion we have been having about SRE here rather than be accused of cross board ramping :-) as posted on Alph
Thanks for spending some of you evening to advise me on my investments, sorry I could not respond sooner but I was having some chilled Tinto Verano whilst watching the sunset over the med.
I am 100% happy with my exposure to all my investments including my very risky ones which are of a rocket or bust nature and have had no problems sleeping.
My portfolio includes funds, fund of funds, blue chip, small cap and Aim. Some of my riskier shares are like Alph where the share price is a fraction of the cash in bank or adjusted NAV (note is all the property sold at market price and debt was settled this would give 10p per share return). If alph 10 bagged it would make a small positive difference to my portfolio, if it went bust it would make a small negative difference to my portfolio
And some where the share price is above the adjusted NAV such as SRE, one of my minor concerns at SRE is the fact the NAV seems to be inflated by upward revaluations of property which do not follow general market trends in the region which tend to precede a placing, diluting the value of my shares (Smaller part of bigger company but if there are doubt about valuations it could end up with more investors looking for the exit door) Also concerned at the prices paid for some properties which appear to above market value (hence the lack of competition when buying property)and also the fact that insiders are selling shares on a regular basis, I have a few other things niggling me but don't want to go into detail here. I am more concerned about my holding in SRE than I am about my holding in Alph. Out of the two I think Alph is the most likely to be a 10 bagger in the next couple of years :-) and I can take the profit from SRE much easier.
No point comparing apples with oranges, one is closer to the top and the other is closer to the bottom.... :-)
I have quite a lot of research on SRE, will post over there some time, but in the meantime I suggest u look at the background to the properties and what historic valuations were and why there is a need to reduce the LTV while borrowing costs are at all time lows :-)|
|Good results again 31st July. Final dividend 10th July 0.84 cents.|
|I like what they are doing and one always hope this will one day be in the league of the big property companies. but it is a toddler on AIM. Admittedly doing better but how committed are the company to being in for the long term. This is what interests me - so I bought some and just keep fingers crossed as long as it performs !|
|"but in 2015 what can the PI do?"
Keep applying some pressure in my view. Otherwise be left to pick over the bones whilst others gorge on the flesh...