Sirius Real Estate Ld Share Discussion Threads

[aaainvestment] 10/10/2012 09:13

Only 3 trading days left to expiry of the loan, news should be any day.

Extract from last results:

"the facility provided by ABN with an outstanding balance of €91.2m expires on 15 October 2012 and is secured over 16 properties. The Group's management are in negotiations with ABN about a combination of disposing of and refinancing the properties secured under the facility, in order to repay the loan facility by maturity. The progress made on this plan to date is as follows:

· Three pieces of property which form part of the properties financed by ABN have been sold or notarised at prices in excess of DTZ valuations generating close to €3.5m of which €3m will be repaid to ABN.

· The disposal of the property at Munich Hoffmanstrasse has been notarised for €7m of which €4m will be repaid to ABN and €3m will be released to the Group.

· ABN has verbally agreed at this stage to release three properties from the facility for immediate refinancing. Advanced discussions with several banks have taken place to finance these properties plus three unencumbered assets in order to repay €29m to ABN as well as generate free cash for the Group.

· The Group's management has been active in marketing the remaining 12 properties within the ABN facility. The initial interest for these assets is encouraging and the Board is confident that these assets will be sold or refinanced in the near future.

The Directors are of the view that should the Group fail to refinance or sell the properties secured over the ABN loan facility or should ABN enforce its security against the Group, the loss of income generated from these properties will reduce the overall level of profitability of the Group by approximately €1m per annum."

[robizm] 08/10/2012 20:06

I hope so aaa1 as I hold a load of these in my sipp. Europe is a mess at the moment.

[aaainvestment] 08/10/2012 19:58

ROBIZM - "what then", its pretty clear that if they can't refinance they will have to wind the company up, either in a controlled manner if the creditors cooperate or fall in a heap if not. Remember the first loan is secured at asset level so it won't break the company.

THe share price has dropped as the refinancing requiremnt approaches so there may well be a bounce if a deal is announced - I'm expecting a stand still arrangement whilst asset sales are sorted out for a large arrangement cost of course.

You must bear in mind where these assets are! Germany has strong banks and institutions that do 90% of the lending why would they shy away from lending when Sirius have a secure asset base and pay their debts?

[robizm] 08/10/2012 17:50

Tbs are not renewing the loan and if they can't renew the other loan then what then

[aaainvestment] 01/10/2012 10:51

We (thats assuming anyone else is still invested) should be hering from the company anytime now about the refinancing and possible site sales; the price is currently surpressed presumably because of that issue.

If there are any vastly undervalued property companies with a stronger case to secure refinancing please let me know.

Sirius are in one of the world's best performing rental market this year, lowering costs, within covenents on loans, strong demand for space, improved rates, selling assets at above independent valuation, improving portfolio, over 90% of lending to German property sector apparently through strong German banks and Instis with rising demand.

We'll see soon, I added a few more last week as I reckon the share price is already marked down for potential problems and will get well past 20p if a deal is announced, I have no real fear of failure to secure finance (2 weeks left) but they could possibly announce a negotiated standstill/extension agreement if they need more time to organise a new facility.

[mangal] 25/7/2012 19:04

gr8 news today & more to come?

[aaainvestment] 06/7/2012 12:29

Don't be fooled by the European doom and gloonm, Germany is still expanding, this from the telegraph coverage of the crisis today:

"11.13 German industrial output data is out, and it's smashed expectations. It was thought that we'd see growth of 0.1pc, but it's taken a 1.6pc leap month-on-month. "

Sirius are in a great position to make a major recovery when the Euro problem is sorted and all Germany's export markets resume their high demand and manner from heaven if the German's themselves start to spend (which is what we really want as a stimulus). Workspace will attract a higher premium, Germany have also been looking East for new export markets in yhe midet of all the turmoil - as always seems to be the case they will end up winners economically.

It's not all doom and gloom LOL.

[wexboy] 03/7/2012 01:02

dalmeny,

Yes, the net LTV looks like 50%, and an 80%+ discount to NAV is always attractive. However, as I was actually just saying elsewhere, I've little current interest in Eastern European property - I think it's an exposure that presents a lot of risk, with little upside potential, right now - so it's not for me at the moment.

I prefer other similarly cheap stocks with a different country/regional focus, or am happy to buy a stock that might offer less intrinsic value upside but offers an exposure I specifically prefer.

Thanks,

Wexboy

[dalmeny] 30/6/2012 10:12

Have you looked at Ablon (ABL) Wexboy? 80% discount to NAV and a lower LTV than SRE.
Cheers,
Dalmeny

[wexboy] 29/6/2012 14:42

A major sale can be another catalyst:



Let's illustrate with a look at some (current/historical) examples, including Sirius Real Estate:

[wexboy] 17/2/2012 01:44

Hi folks,

I've included a fresh look at Sirius Real Estate (complete with v exciting new development!) in my latest Catalyst article, where I look at 4 interesting companies/situations with activist investor(s) on board:



Cheers,

Wexboy

[praipus] 07/2/2012 18:30

Karoo buying more controlling 24.99%

[wexboy] 31/12/2011 13:37

Hi Folks,

I've included SRE in my Baker's Dozen for 2012 – see my latest blog post on:

wexboy.wordpress.com

Best of luck in the New Year!

Wexboy

[praipus] 15/11/2011 17:25

Weiss shuffling its directors about

[wexboy] 11/11/2011 16:46

Yes, thanks Praipus,

I've seen your thread - very helpful, I do tend to track these guys as part of my daily web/market itineraries, but it's great to see such a systematic approach. I don't necessarily jump in after activists, but they are great as idea-generators and of course very reassuring to have on board any investment I make!

Maybe you come across a book by Orol? - slightly misleading title (Extreme Value Hedging), pretty dry, but still the best book in recent years about activist investors, though biased more toward corporate shareholder activists rather than discount activists.

[praipus] 11/11/2011 15:30

"need a lot of ideas" have you looked at the "Tracking the Arbitrageurs Thread"?

[wexboy] 11/11/2011 13:27

Thanks, Praipus,

SRE figures come from their latest results, with some small adjustments I detail in my post. Yes, I track TRV - comparing side-by-side with SRE, TRV's just as cheap with a 0.31 Price/Book, but their Net LTV is almost 20 % pts higher at 76.7%, so it's not for me.

I'll be writing more about portfolio allocation - I generally invest between 1-5% in individual co stocks, so unfortunately I need a lot of ideas to find/monitor! I toy with a higher max of 7.5% - quite acceptable for an investment fund holding - but I can't quite bring myself to do it with individual co stocks so far.

Cheers,

Wexboy

[praipus] 11/11/2011 11:33

Hi Wexboy, blog looks interesting. Where did you get your SRE figures from?

On the German property theme have you considered or looked at TRV?

On a portfolio theme how do you decide how much to allocate per holding? Also how many holding do you have at anyone time?

Cheers
Praipus

[wexboy] 10/11/2011 23:54

Folks,

I haven't posted on this particular thread, but SRE is one of my bigger portfolio positions and I've followed your comments on SRE with great interest.

I've just launched a new value investing blog, and my first post just happens to be about, yes you guessed it...Sirius Real Estate! If you have a chance, please check it out, and if you like the blog any recommendations/referrals/links would be greatly appreciated! - here's the address:

wexboy.wordpress.com

Thanks & Cheers,

Wexboy

[praipus] 09/9/2011 13:51

Weiss man clearly approved of by some of the board as they chuck some more money at their own stock.

[praipus] 26/7/2011 15:49

Done. Weiss man on the board fascinating



Track Weiss holdings in post 3 of the following thread

[praipus] 28/6/2011 15:10

Weiss Asset Management requisitioning an EGM to get their oppo's on the board and some value for the shareholders at last!



Track other Weiss holdings in post 3 of the following thread

[praipus] 25/5/2011 17:58

Laxey grabbing 10 %



Track their other holdings in post 1 of the following thread

[topvest] 14/4/2011 21:37

Yes, starting to look positive. A 3% occupancy improvement is quite significant.

[praipus] 14/4/2011 12:31

Holiss your powers of forsight are impressive.

Trading statement shows lots of cash and an increase in occupancy, its spring and the sun shines.