North River Share Discussion Threads

[yellowthroat] 22/2/2017 15:02

Thx Ged, its rather infuriating though for longtermers to not get any reward after all the effort involved, its even more annoying to know that those that walked off into the sunset a long time ago are better off financially.

However next time you make a decent profit on anything....

Next time you start to go a little under on an investment and it starts to drift...

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In terms of ADVFN shares, I havent got any money & I am not following small stocks, punting on oil and gas or mining I have had a bit of a gutful ! >:o(

It seems obvious to me that out of favour FTSE sectors is the way to go or FTSE 100 companies with any big bets, I hated seeing older people put many of their savings into small stocks like on AIM and then seeing their cash decimated. Shocking !

Im on private message anytime.

Regards

YT

[carter1110] 22/2/2017 13:30

Thanks Ged : YTCan you tell me what happens if I leave the shares and it delists at the end of March ??

[ged5] 22/2/2017 12:17

Hi YT,

I was so sorry to read yesterday's announcement. When Martin brought this back from the dead I thought it had a real chance of succeeding.

It was at this time I really enjoyed your esoteric posts and I felt privileged to converse with you. It was you who attracted other very intelligent, educated posters, who gradually posted relevant information.

It was you steve who posted the list of mining applications in Namibia. When I read the length of time some applications had been waiting I decided it was time to leave.

There are possibly some decent people in the financial industry but I fear there are too many trying to grab our money and are anything but decent.

The only company I recommended here is now suspended and will be lucky to come back under the same owership. $1.5 billion worth of in-ground diamonds and the company screwed up by poor management. I managed to get out at a large loss but preserved some capital.

That capital has now grown. Two companies doubled in share price and my present largest holding is up 50% with much further to go imo. So don't give up. From my experience, carter, I would take the capital, research carefully, buy wisely and make your money back.

On a final note please don't leave the bulletin boards. You YT and several others on here have too much to offer.

Good luck all and my very best wishes. Hope our paths cross again soon.

[yellowthroat] 22/2/2017 11:25

NB : I noticed that some of the other AIM I have had the misfortune to encounter are going nowhere or the same way, small but minimal satisfaction !! >:o(

Good Luck folks.

YT

[carter1110] 21/2/2017 18:07

Thanks for the comprehensive summary Steve, a very accurate reflection as to what has taken place the last few years.We ve not heard from YT yet, I wonder what he will make of the announcement?I personally have not lost as much as many, however I am reluctant to sell and will see what happens.Can anyone advise me on what will happen to the shares if still holding, come the departure from AIMThanks

[1mack] 21/2/2017 14:28

Why is anyone still holding? I'm out at a massive loss but some cash is better than being a private investor. Very very rare one can get their cash back once that ship sails

[howesp] 21/2/2017 14:18

I got caught as well and only yesterday "averaged down" thinking I had made a clever move. DOH! Fortunately not a large investor so hopefully will make some profits somewhere else for a bit of off-setting of loss.

[nufcrichard] 21/2/2017 13:44

This as been a write off for a long time now, despite what some here claim.
The board bled us dry, I am sure they will move on to new lucrative opportunities in the future though.

I really feel for those who put a large amount into NRRP. It had potential. I lost a reasonable amount too, but refused to 'top up', 'average down' or throw good money after bad, so it isn't as bad as it could have been for me.

How I wish I had got out at just short of 1p, our last dead cat bounce. I was in profit, why oh why didn't I sell!?

[howesp] 21/2/2017 09:45

How untimely can one get!? Obviously todays RNS changes everything and in my view confirms they should have got out of Namibia long ago. Now it is all too late.

[yellowthroat] 20/2/2017 19:31

Interesting quote from CATO on China :

today, with the benefit of hindsight, we know that the economic forces that were really transforming the Chinese economy in the first decade of reform were private farming, township and village enterprises, private business in cities, and the Special Economic Zones. None of them was initiated from Beijing. They were marginal players operating outside the boundary of socialism. For these marginal forces, the Chinese government was happy to leave them alone as long as they did not threaten the state sector or challenge the Party’s political power. This created a room for what we called the “marginal revolutions” that brought entrepreneurship and market forces back to China during the first decade of reform.

hxxps://www.cato.org/policy-report/januaryfebruary-2013/how-china-became-capitalist

YT

[yellowthroat] 20/2/2017 19:25

Final bit of clarity on the project.

1. It is by no means a dead duck. The NPV is good as is the DFS.
2. There is certainly geographic proofs of alot more resource. (at least elsewhere)
3. ZINC is storming as the deficits have forecast in the past.
4. Bigger projects have come offstream, others are getting less lucrative.
5. Licence on whichever terms still gives this project a possible big boost.

GS wont have necessarily written this off, it is simply as we have been reporting on various forums that there seems to be a deficit of RNS on the latest.

However if they cant report progress with government yet then I suppose there is nothing to add.

Finally, if we at least get this one pulling off some profits down the line GS might at least get their investment back & we can use NR as the vehicle for probably some buys in better jurisdictions elsewhere ?

James is quite well travelled & is now becoming accustomed to how bad Southern Africa is !

YT

[yellowthroat] 20/2/2017 19:16

Specifically Howesp, read my points about GS & James hopefully reassessing the market NPV of the EPL 2092 & looking at if we could still make a go of it, at least in the meantime whilst this issue rumbles on... ?

Perhaps the company has already done the math, but a significant improvement in the ZINC price cant have done any harm recent, wonder if they have a target figure ?

Against :

1. They are less enthusiastic than Martin French (former Dir) about Resource.
2. Building and executing mines are not plane sailing. (note this government)
3. GS have to satisfy their shareholders that they are not making mistakes.
4. Company predicts huge expense on more JOURC because of the nature of the drill.

For more on the last point, they have dried up on surface drilling & most likely a whole campaign for significant more resource would be expected to come from Net Cash Flows... the company has already bust the shares limit over the years with capex spend so far.

GS intimated that the last fund raise 'must' be spent on the pre-construction. They cannot be seen as a bottomless pit without results.

Lets hope they can afford to flutter on us & we are not a future business write-off against their more fruitful acquisitions !!

YT

[yellowthroat] 20/2/2017 19:06

If that means the economics/finances don't stand up then I'm afraid we have to call it a day and try somewhere else.

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This is perhaps what Greenstone are considering at the moment mate, as the conditions on which they saw this as a great opportunity has changed. I know it is more personal to their shareholders than ours, but their take on their own book about whether or not River is still important to them is nice for us to know.

Clearly other successful projects they have invested in are working and are worth more of their current risk capital.

We tried the stamping feet routine and it seems like the government wont learn. They may be able to get away in the short term with existing big projects down the road with the likes of Rio. However down the line who is going to invest in their assets in order to achieve their perceived 'value' if it isn't 'risky' investment from a speculative market ?

If it was me i'd be forecasting inflation ahead for Namib.

YT

[yellowthroat] 20/2/2017 19:01

China's a massive state funded bubble full of capital that is desperate to leave but isn't allowed too. Bubbles in stocks and property etc etc...

It is trying to modernise rapidly, turning away from your Keynesian government spend theory in order to survive.

Namibia nowhere near in the position to use state spending to boost their growth according to extensive analysis by a former poster here, FLU's.

Refusing projects has cause unemployment for those that would otherwise be engaged with activity at North River. Pay packets for skilled jobs improve equality not hand outs from states.

Keeping it River, the workforce are under-skilled and under-employed and that's why a non-market economy is not appropriate.

Step forward huge FDI that is on hold into the country due to this idiotic new policy.

Venezuela and Zimbabwe have tried your methods.

YT

[howesp] 20/2/2017 14:31

I am a new reader of this BB, although a long standing shareholder of NRRP. Having read the comments above about the requirements of the Namibian Government, it seems to me that in these circumstances companies have to either put up or shut up. African Governments are often a law unto themselves and are not Western style democracies (it's about time we accepted that) and have their particular requirements particularly about benefits that accrue to the indigenous population.

If that means the economics/finances don't stand up then I'm afraid we have to call it a day and try somewhere else.

[slightlyrisky] 20/2/2017 10:14

"You only reduce inequality through thriving free markets." Not so. You only arrange competition through free markets, and they are probably the best way to enable efficient firms to thrive through competition, though (see the Apple story) much fundamental modern invention has been driven and funded by governments and of course universities.

Once the cake is baked, equality - or at least a fairly small move a little way towards it, but not very far - is achieved only by redistributive taxes.

But I guess you meant that the only way for Namibia to move in this whole general direction is by free markets - whereupon I would suggest that the early stages of China's resurgence, for example, relied on their protectionist stance.

[yellowthroat] 19/2/2017 19:48

Oh & in the meantime all those promising jobs at NRRP have not materialised for the workers as we cannot construct the Bleeping Mine!!!

YT

[yellowthroat] 19/2/2017 19:47

The requirement for businesses to accommodate 25% shareholding for previously racially disadvantaged individuals, under the empowerment component of the NEEEF will weigh on investor sentiment, according to BMI.

“There have been mixed statements from the Namibian government regarding the 25% NEEEF clause and this will add to investors’ concerns over investing in the country.”

The African Monitor newsletter advises entrepreneurs and foreign investors to refrain from setting up new businesses until uncertainty surrounding the requirement for racially disadvantaged persons to receive 25% shareholding in businesses, is resolved.

According to local news sources, BMI quoted the Chairman of the Law Reform and Development Commission who stated that the provision for businesses to sell a mandatory 25% of their businesses to ethnic black people may be reconsidered. By way of response, the President, HE Dr Hage Geingob indicated that NEEEF is a SWAPO party initiative and that the party would not move away from the principle of alleviating inequality in Namibia.

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Amount of intra-Africa trade and WTO Trade Facilitation Agreements being enacted all the time makes me despair at Namibia and South Africa. Why on earth r they going to get help on their infrastructure with this continuing position ?

You only reduce inequality through thriving free markets. This will have a devastating knock on effect into Tech & Finance industries as well.

The other thing I thought of was a Namibian listing of 25% of the stock, so ordinary folks can purchase that way in an offer, but no doubt the company will tell us that that is not feasible or too expensive ?

But with Namib attitude to FDI I could agree that hot money will be departing, I guess it is who blinks first but might be too late for tiddlers awaiting licences ?

James did say in that recent RNS that the company hopes for something in the shorter term, but we have heard that before on AIM havent we.... TICK TOCK.

YT

[crunch123] 16/2/2017 10:39

Doesn't look like NEEEF is going to be dumped or enacted any time soon: hxxps://economist.com.na/22560/general-news/neeef-bill-keeps-investors-waiting-on-the-sidelines/

[crunch123] 16/2/2017 08:08

The latest RNS (12 Dec 2016) about the completion of the resource expansion drilling programme includes the following statement:
"Cash preservation remains a priority and the Company has further reduced corporate overheads and put next step resource development and drilling plans on hold until there is clarity on the timing of moving the project forward to a construction decision."

What I struggle to understand is why that drilling programme wasn't curtailed much sooner to preserve cash?

I remember that there was a question from a PI along the lines of "why not mothball the project until the licence is awarded?" on one of the conference calls.

[yellowthroat] 15/2/2017 19:31

The second point I would like to make is over the value of the project and Greenstone's own personal internal investment measures of determining favourable conditions.

I wonder if GS feel that their own internal bar has been increased by the change in ROR? We havent for some time now had any new metrics performed on the new scenarios that we have seen to give us a current and prospective NAV. The main inhibitor presumably is the lack of full details about the Namibian involvement.

However it would surely be easy enough to speculate on the new metrics of say the company only getting 80% of the profits, surely then the amount of taxes the firm pays will be even less that current in the perceived?

Throw in the JOURC being at say $3000 for ZINC and then it would be quite interesting what the new metric actually is ?

Is the reason for the delay the fact also that the company does not think that the project will get the go-ahead at financing level by banks and debtors because 80% of the revenues and profits is not a sufficient ROR ?

I share Steve's and others frustrations that the advent of GS and the new directors seems to have inhibited NR from mining alot more of the ground to discover more of an investable resource.

All I would say is perhaps... who is going to provide the monies for further investigation of what is basically 'A hole in the ground'.

Clearly internally GS has to make domestic decisions on where it allocates its further resources, but hopefully they wont just write off $10mn plus ?

Some thoughts from the company on new scenarios would be nice.

High level news on the NEEEF is in short order as well, interminable waiting is annoying even for me who is looking at this a bit more from afar now. A nice bit of some monies back would still be nice and salvage something out of this mess.

It isnt as if I havent had the idea that there are newer investors here as well waiting to put some money into ZINC investments what with the 'skyhigh' price !

I might even put some in myself on any blinking good news! (chance would be a fine thing)

YT