North River Share Discussion Threads

[yellowthroat] 12/12/2016 21:46

* Drill results indicate that refinement of the 3D geological and structural model is required prior to undertaking further drilling and that future resource development targeting is increasingly dependent on accessing additional underground drill positions as the mine is developed.

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Bit further on this. The completion of the drilling campaign was to completely exhaust the drill points that were available from the surface to existing positions that they could drill from with the existing Drills that they have available.

As this paragraph states, a comprehensive 3D modelling and planned programme would have to be constructed from the Level 5 now completed drive in the North depths.

From the Southern depths, it was noted a while ago that there were no drill points from the surface here now particularly, so therefore the company advised that whilst they were in production they would build an area around 200 metres below South depths to enable a comprehensive campaign here as well.

This would need a detailed scientific structure in order to know exactly where to go we are told. This goes back to where the new technical team were claiming that Martin French's predictions were allegedly jumping the gun in some way and we needed a more definitive answer.

Hence they reworked the DFS and achieved they claim much greater confidence in the DFS result and implied extraction rates. We have their word to go on that the new experts thought that this needed to be more comprehensive.

Upgrade to JORC presumably wont happen until comprehensive planned campaigns happen as above below North and below South.

Hope that helps as a reminder. Want to get back to these types of discussions which are part of the nitty gritty, rather than the political risk fiasco and the potential funding risk still implied.

Yep the licence is the short term major make or break. Company saying that they have made suggestions and hope for progress in the near term.

YT

[1mack] 12/12/2016 17:13

Limbo period not great for investor confidence. I know we say it all the time but license will make or break us ha

[yellowthroat] 12/12/2016 13:19

OF note :

Mining licence and ongoing development

"The Company continues to discuss the granting of the mining licence for the Namib Project with the Ministry of Mines and Energy, and is in the process of providing further detail to support the proposal submitted to the Ministry in April 2016 on meeting the new Mining Licence conditions.

Cash preservation remains a priority and the Company has further reduced corporate overheads and put next step resource development and drilling plans on hold until there is clarity on the timing of moving the project forward to a construction decision. A lower run rate level of expenditure going into 2017 will extend the available timeframe for the Company to firm up a development plan for the Namib Project or redefine the corporate strategy.

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So great project at whopping ZINC which should help funding, but still no licence but hopeful near term. Will possibly increase the number of shares dramatically mind but this stock is not dead by any means.

It could be seen as massive bargain by outsiders on licence in particular ?

Question is state of company with the cash position and not damaging existing holders too much in this continued limbo period ?

YT

[crunch123] 02/12/2016 07:51

I hope that someone from the Board is meeting the Namibian president on his visit to the UK:
hxxps://www.newera.com.na/2016/12/01/stage-set-for-geingobs-uk-visit/

[1mack] 24/11/2016 22:05

Great post steve! Ive turned my self off with NRRP of late, however I still have my full holding from many purchases all the way down. Not got a bad average if this gets moving...

who knows, this delay may benefit us shareholders, as zinc continues to rocket!

GLA

[yellowthroat] 24/11/2016 21:40

Again this is a potential money spinner for newer observers, NRRP is in a great position bearing in mind Steve's description of NR not being objected too in principle to get the licence. The news about ZINC and its general interest should attract people to this board and this company.

Christ we need that settlement over NEEEF or just get the licence in principle agreed or something. Jeez !

DYOR. The share price and number of shares is abysmal on delays.

YT

[steve239] 24/11/2016 16:31

As the wait for a licence goes on and on, the price of zinc continues to go ballistic. As I write this, it’s currently around $2,710 per tonne.

The economics of the DFS were based on

a) A Sterling to Dollar exchange rate of 1.60 (bearing in mind that earnings would be mostly in US Dollars), which is now around 1.25, and

b) A zinc price of $2,400 per tonne. Based on the current exchange rate, today’s price of $2,710 is in effect equivalent to around $3,300 per tonne at a currency conversion rate of 1.60. I don’t need to explain what an increase in zinc price of 35-40% would do to profit margins (the word “orbit” springs to mind).

All the more reason to ask what the hell is going on here. Without naming individuals, I know from my own enquiries that certain people in high places have spoken to the Government of Namibia specifically about NRRP, indicating that this is NOT the way to attract foreign investment.

With the award of a mining licence, the company would be an absolute “no brainer” of an investment at this miniscule valuation. It seems to have become a bet (with fairly decent upside) on whether the company can trim its costs and hold out long enough to get a licence before the money runs out and another cash raise is required, which is not really feasible at the current market price.

It’s now 10 months since we were told that our application had been accepted in principle (while numerous others were rejected) but the whole NEEEF scenario has been another kick in the teeth. 3 months ago the company stated that it had appointed a couple of (black) Namibians to the board of the holding company to try to help “unlock the application process”. They really ought to be able to come to some kind of mutually beneficial agreement without having to wait for the implementation of new laws in Namibia.

All I want for Christmas is...

[crunch123] 22/11/2016 20:22

From Imperial Minerals PLC's annual results for year ended 30 June 2016:

"Imperial also holds a small interest in AIM-listed North River Resources (NRR). NRR remains focused on re-opening its Namib lead-zinc mine in Namibia. NRR’s greatest short-term value driver remains the securing of a long-awaited mining licence for the Namib project."

It's from the shortened version, there may be more in the full version when its published.

[yellowthroat] 17/11/2016 19:22

Hi Richard,

Point one thanks, Point two no I am skint thanks to this investments turn for the worst since the heady heights of 0.99pence old money. On two occasions I had 50-75%gains of several thousands & didnt take it, since then I sat on my hands as deadlines came & went. No matter how good a prospective investment Rule No 1 is always to take a profit or certainly set a stop loss ! >:o(

To think we were admonishing various who sold in the early days between 0.50pence to 0.70pence. I think I wish I had done that as well. Meaning all those that dumped the stock long ago made decent monies from 0.30pence climb on the back of French's turnaround & all those that kept faith have been Shat on from a great height !

Sigh

YT

[crunch123] 17/11/2016 09:10

My concern is that the Ministry may be delaying the issuance of new licences until the NEEEF bill is passed & who knows when that will happen.

In the absence of any information from the company on the subject - the most recent of its promised "quarterly" conference call was over 4 months ago & the interim results didn't add anything - all we can do is guess at what's happening.

[nufcrichard] 16/11/2016 15:26

YT, I will give you this, you called the turn around in the Zinc price very well.

I hope you were long Zinc over the last six months, because it would be a shame that you have been right BUT the share price here is at an all time low and pretty consistently falling.

[steve239] 16/11/2016 14:36

Good summary, YT. To add to that:

The licence award (which is clearly a race against time, to avoid diluting shareholders out of existence) and the subsequent funding options are obviously the two key issues.

The market currently values the entire company at about £2 million.

Funding to reach production will require around £20-25 million.

Based on current metal prices and currency exchange rates, the company should then be making at the very least £20 million (NOT Dollars) of clear profit PER YEAR.

We need to be updated on resources and reserves at some stage but we know (from 2 years ago) that the actual reserves were equivalent to a mine life of 3.5 years and the resources that needed infill drilling (assuming that was achievable) to convert them to reserves, would take the total mine life up to 5 years.

On top of that we have whatever resources/reserves they have come up with from drilling operations carried out during the last 2 years. During that period, some seriously high grade materials have been reported in RNS announcements so it will be interesting to see how the resource figures develop.

On the funding aspect, the project obviously couldn’t be funded by raising equity at the current share price but on announcement of a licence the share price ought to be at least 0.20p in pre-consolidation terms, ie 50p in “current money”. Although that is several times the current (ridiculously low) valuation, it needs to be put into context. In “old money”, over the years the share price of the company has fallen from around 12p to the current 0.03p (a 400-fold drop) so roughly a 6-fold increase (in going from last chance saloon to the very real prospect of a producing, profit making mine) really should not be too much to ask.

At a share price of 0.20p (old money) / 50p (new money) the total number of shares would roughly need to double in order to fund 50% of the project costs through share-based equity. With the company and Greenstone’s knowledge and connections, they ought to be able to fund at least 50% by other means such as loans or off-take deals, based on the favourable project economics and the unusually short pay-back time.

[yellowthroat] 16/11/2016 13:19

If the movement on NEEEF 25% is speeded up or at least reaches conclusion in a reasonable timescale. The licence award and acceptance of the conditions would make this one of the AIM turnaround stocks of the year in my view.

Obviously there are some big Ifs, but I am thinking of anyone who is NEW looking into the trials and tribulations of this company and also looking at the upturn in fortunes for ZINC. This is well worth sticking on the watch list.

New observers I can tell you no-one is putting anymore money in at the moment of those people that are just about shot of confidence of this apparent Turkey.

However as I say for those newer non widows and orphans looking to play AIM.

1. Large investor picked this company first out of 300 possibles.

2. Poor Share Price is down to non awardence of licence on political issues.

3. Namibia have not said they will not award it but they are introducing NEEEF.

4. As Steve says the excellent ROR is based on ZINC $2400 it is over $2500.

5. As ZINC observers will know it is predicted to be THE metal 2017-2022.

6. There is more resource predicted throughout life of mine. LEAD ZINC SILVER

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Negatives are the amount of shares in the hands of Greenstone and the current share price which impinges in the short term on financing.

The lack of a licence so far as political risk impacts with the current government deciding to take a kind of socialist, take a percentage from the private sector, type approach to FDI.

We have just heard rumours from the govt that they are getting it at the Namibian investment conference and that excessive demands could be reined in !

Therefore it is looking more likely that conditions can be met so that the licence proposal can be accepted and we can get on with building what would on the surface being a very profitable mine !

Licence award should see a rapid increase here of this VERY low price ? DYOR

Regards

YT

[steve239] 14/11/2016 22:16

What a crazy situation. As we approach 2 years and 7 months since the licence application, continue to hear nothing from the company or the Ministry of Mines, and investors continue to sell their shares for next to nothing, the zinc price is on steroids at around $2,585 per tonne (and rising), compared to the $2,400 assumed in the DFS, and even lead is rapidly catching up.

The fall in the Sterling/Dollar ratio from 1.60 to 1.25 gives a further boost of more than 20% to the economics of the project, which were already considered fairly compelling at the time of the DFS.

It will be a farce of epic proportions if we end up losing everything here.

[yellowthroat] 11/11/2016 16:42

Here we go :

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hxxp://www.namibian.com.na/47830/read/25pct-Neeef-clause-rethink

THE provision in the New Equitable Economic Empowerment Framework draft bill which will have white businesses sell a mandatory 25% shares to black people can be reconsidered.
This was the view of the chairperson of the Law Reform and Development Commission, Yvonne Dausab. She said this during a plenary discussion at the Invest In Namibia conference, which ended in Windhoek yesterday.

That provision has been criticised and caused fear amongst most white-owned businesses in the country, despite President Hage Geingob's persistent attempts to have white people understand it and share their wealth.

“Neeef is being reviewed. If there are any issues or conflict, there is always room for improvement, but I think the issues that have been raised are being considered,” she noted. Dausab, who doubles as presidential adviser, said the issues have been raised particularly around the 25%, and these concerns have been looked at. “Probably there are discussions on reconsidering how that provision would look like”.

Asked whether the laws in Namibia is investor-friendly, Dausab said Namibian laws are there to create a mutually beneficial relationship between an investor and the public.

“We do everything to ensure that we accommodate our investors, but we must also make sure that we don't prejudice our people. There has to be a balance,” she stated.

She added that the Public Procurement Act of 2015 has a number of provisions which address issues that empower Namibians and also make it easy for investors to come in and participate in the economy.

According to her, the Namibia Investment Act also comes on the heels of the Neeef bill.

When asked whether the provision of Neeef's 25% has been fully understood, Habu Gerbers, a partner at law firm Engling, Stritter and Partners, said there has been a lot of criticism around that.

“More specifically so regarding trading. The second question that came out during consultations was the issue of financing, which is whether there is finance available in the country that would be required to make it work,” he said.

On the issue of tax, Stephen Hugo of PriceWaterhouseCoopers said tax does have a major impact on doing business.

He said one of the underlying factors for doing business included in the World Bank Index is paying taxes.

Hugo said Namibia this year ranked 93rd in the world in terms of paying taxes.

“We need to reflect on some of those things, and see if the Ministry of Finance has done anything to address that. I think one of the biggest delays is the manual paper filing, but government is now moving towards digitalising the process,” he said.Hugo also noted that government is setting up a revenue agency, while the large taxpayers' office was established and is already operational.

Allisson Hishekwa, the director of citizenship and passports in the home affairs ministry, spoke about the ease in which investors can come into the country.

He said the Immigration Control Act of 1993 makes provision for investors to come and apply, and through the right processes get approval to set up a business and operate in Namibia.

Carlos Lopes, the former executive secretary of the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, said Namibia is a great place to invest.

“You have a stable government, the rule of law and mentioned that contracts can be enforced. You have a sophisticated and sound financial sector, and free enterprise. But above all, you welcome foreign investment,” he said.

[yellowthroat] 11/11/2016 16:40

GOOD NEWS ?

According to my Googling for news on NEEEF amongst Namibian newspapers there appears to be the following headline in the 9th November edition of THE NAMIBIAN :

"25% NEEEF CLAUSE RETHINK"

Of course this could mean changes along the lines of who is allowed to buy the shares and who can own them. Looking for details. Some have complained that only rich Namibians can buy them, so need to find actual comments.

Im just attempting to Zero in on the actual article and having a little trouble other than the JPEG image of the front page of the newspaper.

Just trying to google the headline now !

YT

[crunch123] 03/11/2016 11:08

From 'The Namibian' website reporting on President Geingob's comments at the Swapo party policy conference hxxp://www.namibian.com.na/47437/read/NEEEF-is-a-Swapo-policy-%E2%80%93-Geingob

Noting that Namibia has entered a number of agreements with operators who are currently exploiting some of the country's resources, Geingob said there should be debate on how the natural resources should be exploited in a manner that will bring the most benefits to Namibia.

Namibia, he added, cannot be bound forever by contracts that are in favour of investors at the expense of the majority of Namibians