North River Share Discussion Threads

[crunch123] 15/2/2017 09:36

Hi YT,

Yes, I agree it makes sense to get cracking asap, but, as LTHs all we can do is guess what's happening from (largely historic) reports.

On the one hand there is NRRP's RNS on 12 August 2016 stated "Certain obligations under the draft Bill are inconsistent with those laid down under the terms & conditions to the Notice of Preparedness to Grant. The extent to which the NEEEF Bill would place additional obligations on the Namib Project remains unclear. It is an area on which the Company and Namibian mining industry as a whole will seek and need further clarity in due course."

Whilst, on the other hand, there are the media reports of Namibian ministerial comments in the trail above suggesting that:
no licence award until NEEEF/NEEEB passed; &/or
no licence until NRRP accept all the conditions.

As shareholders we're being kept largely in the dark.

[yellowthroat] 14/2/2017 16:47

When you have a one party state with quite so much seeming Socialist leaning tendencies it is very hard to throw them from their desired will. I wont make this too political as relating to western ideals, but clearly it is next to impossible to change the countries will on this one.

I wont go on about if it is Tory / Labour or make any comparisons to UK or Europe is what I mean. It is purely and simply that Namibia with their one party state have decided to go full on nationalism with the accent on copying extremes of South Africa and some of Zimbabwe.

What NRRP needs to recognise therefore is that this decision appears to be not for turning and refusing terms is now seeming to be 'cut off nose to spite face'. I understand Greenstone might personally see this one as a bad investment and look more to funding its ones that are doing well. Is it really worth them as Steve says, writing off $10mn as part of their portfolio ?

Wouldn't any sort of licence now and recovering of monies be seen as sensible as surely the project is unsaleable without the licence and the capex spend on getting it to operation ?

Ive written a long post, when simply I perhaps should have said... this has gone on for months and no-one seems to be able to change government minds so with the favourable ZINC price why dont we just blinking get on with it ?

Is is really that much of a deterrence to project financing that Namibians might have to own 20-25% of the mine ?

Does it boil down to the fact that they want 25% for no input whatsoever and GS are really baulking at taking all the risk and putting all the money in to see the government take a large percent for no risk etc. ?

We talk about taxes and royalties but at this rate no taxes will be paid for X years as we wont presumably be making enough profit against the capex and opex expenditure ?

IT would be nice to have some frank opinions from the company on what they feel ?

Wonder what James is thinking as he bought a chunk of shares and has been senior in business and is now seemingly kicking his heels on a bust project ?

BTW its not as if we cant get this one to production and get some NET cash flow and then use it maybe to buy a project outside of the now uninvestable Namibia ?

Finally with ZINC so high I cant see if it really isn't worth just mining it ? Is it because this delay and lack of financing other than GS has crippled the financial incentives elsewhere in view of the no of shares ?

EDIT : Is it because GS will be feeling like they are throwing good money after bad and especially in regards the fact that Namib wants all the say and employment but their staff and businesses seem to be well below the required standards ?

YT

[crunch123] 14/2/2017 09:28

The article also says that the new rules will come into force for existing licences when they come up for renewal.

[crunch123] 13/2/2017 09:15

When Martin French left back in January 2014 the NRRP share price (adjusted for the July 2016 1/250 share consolidation) at the close of that day was £1.25
It's now 9 pence.

I'm obviously aware that the company is an innocent victim of timing and Namibian politics . . . but . . . it was clearly stated in the March 2015 conference call that they were working on a new investor relations strategy. There has been one RNS in the last 4.5 months and their commitment to hold quarterly shareholder conference calls has proved risible. Can't say that impressed with their investor relations strategy.

Under Martin's leadership shareholders also had the advantage of being kept well informed about what was happening.

Probably a forlorn hope but could we have Martin back please?

[crunch123] 10/2/2017 12:58

This is the first time - admittedly belatedly - I've seen it explicitly stated that there would be no licence until the law was passed, but I'd sort of assumed that was the likelihood.

It would seem to cast some light on the NRRP RNS comment 'talks with the Ministry are ongoing.'

An NRRP RNS on 23 March 2015 said "North River is committed to maintaining a regular and constructive dialogue with its shareholders and accordingly it will hold shareholder conference calls on a quarterly basis moving forward, in addition to supplementary communications as appropriate".

The last conference call was SEVEN months ago on 8 July.

While NRRP's management must be tearing their hair out over the lack of licence, I am becoming increasingly disenchanted by their failure to keep shareholders adequately informed about what's happening.

[yellowthroat] 02/2/2017 17:49

Christ on a bike ! >:o(

YT

[moreminer] 02/2/2017 10:20

THE Mineworkers Union of Namibia (MUN)'s Namdeb branch has urged government to consider nationalising mines in the face of the intended retrenchment of 278 workers at Skorpion Zinc Mine.

In a media statement issued yesterday, MUN branch chairperson Shavuka Mbidhi said the nationalisation of mines will ensure decent jobs, job security and maximum national benefits from the country's resources.

He described the company's decision to restructure as “inhuman, ill-conceived and unpatriotic,” claiming the reasons given by the management are pathetic, lacking substance and capitalistic-oriented.

The company's management, said Mbidhi, intends to maximise profits through using cheap labour by outsourcing permanent jobs to a mining contractor.

Earlier, the company said it does not have the heavy equipment needed to economically mine large quantities of waste material and within the required time frame. It was these considerations which influenced plans to outsource mining operations to a local contractor. Discussions are apparently underway between Skorpion management and the identified contractor.

Mbidhi also lashed out at government, accusing labour minister Erkki Nghimtina of turning an blind eye to the intended restructuring.

“This type of leadership from the minister and his top officials is unpatriotic and counter-revolutionary, and cannot be accepted, especially at this time when the country faces a high unemployment rate,” the unionist stated. He furthermore called on the minister to show political clout and rescue the workers facing retrenchment and a labour contract system at Skorpion Zinc Mine.

Nghimtina could not be reached for comment as he is on leave. Mbidhi warned that the workers will deal with employers in their own way if government fails to control them.

He noted that workers are not against foreigners who invest in the country, but they should do this on Namibian terms and conditions, which government must impose.

[crunch123] 02/2/2017 09:48

Mineworkers Union of Namibia wants mines nationalised:
hxxp://www.namibian.com.na/50689/read/MUN-wants-Govt-to-nationalise-mines

[crunch123] 01/2/2017 12:20

The Namibian Ministry of Mines and Energy has uplifted a new Mining licence list onto its website today.

Brief perusal suggests that it's very nearly a year since they last issued a mining licence: QKR gold mine got their licence on 26 Feb 2016 exactly 2 years and 11 months after applying.

If, and it's a big IF, NRRP's application takes the same amount of time, we've only got another few weeks to wait until 17 March 2017. Won't be holding my breath though.

Lots of the applications are listed as 'Intention to refuse, pending representations'.

I wonder how the ministry folk occupy themselves given they don't seem to have much of an appetite for granting mining licences.

And it's almost 7 months since the last of NRRP's promised QUARTERLY investor conference calls.

[yellowthroat] 23/1/2017 13:35

BMI & Fitch is a bit like Mainstream Media on Brexit. Lots of people being told by 'prestige' what they already knew some time ago & it is presented as new info.

Meanwhile I think I remember seeing this and the president shrugged off the downgrade.

Exhibit A. On what happens when you meddle over time with a private sector. How long is this going to go on for, how can it be applied to current licences opened many months ago. How can it apply to small & nimble exploration companies !

There must be a distinction between large companies and smaller ones, who can be less flexible, well structured investment markets like those in the UK understand the difference between an AIM firm and a FTSE 100 firm.

However if you look at the prevalence of the Left's thinking it is a wonder anything gets done anywhere. What a total F up !

I see some companies appear to have disappeared over the horizon from the note.

However annoyingly it looks like Diamond mining and Uranium mining to become important to the Namib economy, so why make so much fuss over existing Industrial metals 'tiddlers' operating and risking money under previous assumptions criteria ?

Meanwhile if I invest in anything again I think I have full grasp of what 'Political Risk' means !

YT

[yellowthroat] 23/1/2017 13:29

"However, its vastly dispersed and relatively poorly educated labour force, high levels of red tape and underdeveloped financial markets continue to constrain growth."

----

Ideal scenario for a NEEEF bill that means Namibian ppl or businesses can go to local capital markets and convince that they can own 25% of complex Foreign companies !

SIGH

YT

[crunch123] 19/1/2017 09:59

hxxps://economist.com.na/21636/headlines/neeef-bill-jeopardises-mining-fitch-group/

[carter1110] 14/1/2017 21:40

Good post YT

[yellowthroat] 14/1/2017 20:15

Part 2:

The stumbling block is that NEEEF is taking an eternity and they dont seem to be taking into consideration that key fluid and quick business decisions need to be taken by smaller companies whereby cashflow is key.

Perhaps they should exempt companies of a certain size at least in the shorter term, I can see them jumping on behemoths that can afford to delay but I am wondering how many smaller companies will abandon the country as this is now too risky ?

The Namibians do not have the skilled internal workforce to make these mines work competitively with other companies actually terminating workers contracts in the past due to poor standards with drills, practices etc.

Namibia is quite entrepreneurial in places and I would hope that it is investment wise that maybe the govt or businesses can throw some cash our way, we are after all on licence issue going to need around $20mn to get the Capex for full operational mining.

The licence will be issued if and when something sensible is agreed for smaller more nifty businesses, retrospective terms on licences for businesses that have already committed millions to exploration costs is a right cheek.

As I said on a previous note, basically tho we need this project to survive as a company so anything half decent we should accept and get mining !

Presumably some sort of endgame or compromise must be coming soon ? How much longer does bureaucracy need to decide on this or apply sensible practices to ongoing applications ?

YT

[yellowthroat] 14/1/2017 20:08

Summary on the licence for newer onlookers, might help :

----------

The new govt have turned a bit Zimbabwe, whereas before they were very much a German Colony with sensible, albeit one party socialist leaning rule. There is a business heritage and entrepreneurialism there but the new govt are suffering from economic ills. They have looked at the way some FDI have taken the resources and paid minimal taxes or royalties (they claim) and tried to increase the interest for native Namibians. They have introduced a new NEEEF bill but they have basically killed the golden goose. However this bill has been raged about by including the British High Commission and high level FDI businesses.
With NRRP we were granted the exploration licence and given heads up for certain conditions, they have moved the goalposts. They are not saying they will not issue it they are saying NRRP has to agree to 25% of the company being in the hands of Namibian owners, it is unclear if they mean give it up to the government or allow purchase, the latter is okay but who has got the monies to take a chance in a small exploration company. They have taken a bit of a hammer to crack a nut.
The company disagrees with the 25% as NRRP is already expected to pay at least 37.5% tax plus royalties and obviously AIM companies are risky start ups anyways. The licence will be issued if NEEEF settles down and the company can agree terms.
The latest is that we have been told to expect further in the shorter rather than longer term.

Regards

YT

[yellowthroat] 12/1/2017 18:17

I tried googling Namibia and NEEEF and New Era and all sorts but nothing new came up the other week.

Assuming the company is still trying to get the licence approved hopefully there is alot going on behind the scenes. Now I am on PC not I-Phone I can type a bit more, it is still only speculative though.

Basically if the whole company is going down the plughole then for me it is better to accept any conditions in the short term that involved divesting of some shares or interest particularly if they can be purchased at market rate or somewhere reasonable just to get this show on the road.

The company strategy is to use EPL 2092 as a springboard so really it shouldnt matter if some of the gloss is taken off of it in order to get it up and running.

IE if this project is crucial to NRRP becoming an umbrella company with Greenstone in order to grow, even if the project is sub optimal in the short term, surely it is worth mining in any case as likeliest it will throw off Net cash at least and possibly lead to further investments?

After all if Namibia becomes like Zimbabwe unfortunately we have put all our eggs in this basket, but revenues here could lead to new partners and acquisitions outside of Namib whereby the climate is more beneficial to FDI ?

I can only hope and assume that the company thinks it has enough time to mothball spending and still be able to go forwards at some point once the licence is agreed ?

Who knows the advanced sales of ZINC to someone like GS or approved like Glencore at good prices $2700 and above could still make this a good economic project.

Just selling it to GS in some sort of liquidation deal doesnt really make sense as I doubt they will want to sell a mine with no licence and no development on it ?

BTW the mine might not be saleable without a DFS and action plan because the Namib said they would only grant the licence if it was going to be developed and not sold.

Hence conspiracy theories about the mine being sold on the cheap to GS are not ideal IMO because the next company will have to prove a DFS and come up with a plan as well, then get the licence potentially before they could buy the asset.

All we know is that Namib authorities are slow, this is a farce but that James has said that there might be an announcement at some point in the shorter period ?

Anyways I dont really know folks...

But ZINC is very good and commodities could do well again this year and get quite high on the expected slowdown of production that is now coming to fruition ?

ATB

YT

[yellowthroat] 11/1/2017 23:17

Zinc still above $2400 that gave good returns, surely they've agreed something by now around investor involvement? Even if the project is less favourable on govt taking a chunk surely as it's our first it's better to start with some clause seeking clarification or change down the line ? SighYT

[yellowthroat] 11/1/2017 23:13

Hi there, no, we need an announcement on the licence & pdq. How's the Zinc price ? Gotta look.NB : all I heard was that Namib govt suing Germany over some atrocity or inflicted crimes that happened 100 yrs ago or something?Not sure on detail but this govt feels like Zimbabwe, they have economic ills but going wrong way about resolving with this 'populist' stuff !NRRP needs to agree to mine asap !YT

[carter1110] 11/1/2017 22:23

Does anyone have any thoughts on the recent rise ??

[crunch123] 20/12/2016 13:04

Could have been a sale by a platform to cover its monthly/quarterly charge for an account that had an insufficient cash balance to cover the charge. Just guessing.

[gozo] 20/12/2016 11:12

Hi volume this morning!