Hydro Intl Share Discussion Threads

[cambium] 08/3/2011 09:10

Well done great set going forward now

[luminoso] 08/3/2011 09:08

alanrussell/Dozey1

Common sense good management can also act as a restraint on overly ambitious ideas. Think we will have to agree to disagree on dividend.
We can all appreciate, meanwhile, a nice set of results and a nice market reaction !

[yoyoy] 08/3/2011 08:34

eps of 10.43p (statutory) and 11.54p adjusted.

forecast was only 9.2p for 2010 and 10.7p for 2011.

I'm looking for £1.50 share price

[alanrussell] 01/3/2011 23:39

I have to say I prefer a company that pays a dividend, even one that might be regarded as a growth company. Paying a dividend imposes an element of discipline in that they have to be able to pay out a fairly consistent dollop of cash every six months. Can act as a restraint on overly ambitious ideas.

[dozey1] 01/3/2011 22:54

I think GNG makes my point regarding HYD's dividend perfectly. GNG purports to be stuffed with cash and doing great, but they pay no dividend. Where does the cash go? Does it exist? Unless there is a good reason why shareholders get nothing I would steer well clear. But WTHDIK.

[jebenn1] 01/3/2011 19:18

Hi Rivaldo,
Thanks for your post, you still probably know more about the company than I do and I've been holding the whole time!
I take your logic and admit there is uncertainty short to medium term. But I am hoping that the quality of the products and the slow and steady approach of the management (in my opinion correct) to grow the company will bring value out long term.
It's unlikely to become a multibagger for me but if it's 2 pounds in 5 years time plus dividends then I'm very happy.

And now if you don't mind I will go check out GNG! Maybe I'll have a slice of both of them!

cheers
J

[rivaldo] 01/3/2011 11:20

Hi jebenn1, hope you're well - I'm still out here! HYD remains high up the watchlist, as I do still like the company.

The broker forecast for the upcoming year is 10.7p EPS, so HYD isn't really very cheap in the current environment.

The recent orders are great, and certainly HYD's prospects appear better than in recent years. I'm just a little nervous about the spending cutbacks in the UK and USA - no-one here has mentioned the big reductions in flood defence spending for example. And how long will the hiatus before AMP5 gets fully implemented continue?

If the share price were still in the 90p's - and I had spare AIM-targeted funds, which I don't at present - I'd consider reinvesting.

But on a forecast P/E of 11.5, without recurring income and vulnerable to cutbacks, I compare HYD to something like GNG, on an ex-cash P/E of around 3, with say £6m+ forecast net cash and £2m post-tax profits against a £12.9m m/cap, and with high recurring income and 200 blue chip clients, and HYD loses out I'm afraid.

[cheap] 26/2/2011 10:39

The value of a share like Hydro is in its dividend - provided it goes on earning. Then you mitigate the short term market led share price fluctuations. The Hydro dividend is a major part of my income.

[dozey1] 24/2/2011 23:01

Well, I first bought at 27.5 in 2001; managed to sell some as high as 163 in January 2004, and the last of that tranche at £1 that December. I've since bought in again near and just below the £1 mark. So you can see my point of view - historically they have been only modestly successful. Perhaps this time it's different, but paying a sensible dividend does not preclude further expansion whilst surely boosting the company's credentials amongst investors.

[luminoso] 24/2/2011 19:12

I would rather they spent the money on growing the business, so that the returns to shareholders are in the form of a much higher share price in the future. I trust the management to spend that money wisely. Bolt on acquisitions, marketing, whatever... but please no more dividend payout.

[dozey1] 16/2/2011 22:44

Good news indeed, but I think the next move up hinges on HYD producing a worthwhile increase in dividend when it announces results in March. Net cash and a good order book, with no commensurate increase in working capital if fabrication of products continues with third parties, time the shareholders saw a better return.

[jebenn1] 16/2/2011 13:14

yoyoy - thanks for that! Superb news.
Have been a long time holder (7-8 years I think). My average price is about 1.05, having got bit overly enthusiastic a few years ago when prices were higher.

Hopefully they will be able to identify a few more bolt on acquisitions, their previous ones have appeared to be very succesful.

Rivaldo - are you out there? When you checked out with your holding I rmember you predicting it would go sideways for a while at around the 90p to a pound mark (hope I am rmembering the figures right). And very good timing it was.
I wonder if we wil fall back to that area or if we will establish a new base more towards 1.10?

Happy to hold whatever the outcome, I feel the quality products and understated management will gradually add value.

[skirbell] 16/2/2011 13:09

I'm starting to think that HYD are beginning to turn the corner. A couple of good contract wins over the past few months hopefully indicates spending being made in the area that HYD are selling to. The chart is also looking like a cup and handle formation which is normally a sign of a bottom being in place.

[what is a login ?] 01/2/2011 12:27

A good write up, Ikos, marred in my opinion by the last sentence.The Growth Company hack establishes Hyd's rock solid fundamentals and then concludes: "worth a medium term flutter". I think "A long term hold" would be a more appropriate conclusion. But maybe that's just me.

[labatie] 31/12/2010 07:52

Thanks both

[dozey1] 30/12/2010 22:44

A persistent seller leaking shares into the market over a period undoubtedly has a depressing effect on the market in those shares. However, it does not alter the basic investment case one iota, except that investors other than short-term holders get a better deal. I was going to say better 'bargain', but there's no certainty that it will be a bargain.
The recent crisis in NI can only serve to increase investment in infrastructure and especially rainfall-harvesting. I'm not selling anytime soon.

[luminoso] 30/12/2010 19:40

Sheila Lamb, wife(?) of Tim J.Lamb. Both are major shareholders. He seems to be an expert on Urban drainage and has written an article, which i found referenced in a report from a 2008 urban drainage conference:-
"Lamb, T. J. (1983) Practical Use of Hydro-Brake Flow Controls to Alleviate Flooding at Low Cost. The Public
Health Engineer, 11(3), 19 – 23."
Gripping read, I believe.
More than that I do not know as I am relatively new to this company - last couple of years and dont know the full history.
Mrs Lamb seems to selling down her holding but no idea for what reason - other than she needs the money ? Still has a shedload, though. So does hubby. HTH.

[labatie] 30/12/2010 11:17

I've been looking at this and have noticed a Mrs Lamb mentioned as a continuing seller.

Can anyone fill me in about her please?

TIA

[luminoso] 08/11/2010 08:31

Good points, Rivaldo. Its also true that there are more dynamic opportunities out there. Nevertheless, I will stay put as I don't have a good record in timing moves in and out. Carclo being a share, where I missed the boat in 2003/4, when its recovery came earlier than I expected.

[dozey1] 05/11/2010 14:35

The sale today of over 54000 shares by Mrs Lamb has easily been absorbed by the market with the share price up 3p at 2.00pm. She retains 1,400,000 or just less than 10% and they may indeed act as a drag on the market. OTOH looking beyond the short-term any overhang or forced selling can represent buying opportunity. The latest contract will surely be seen as a vote of confidence in HYD and the market for their waste-treatment products is huge, so I foresee further good news over the next few months.