Hydro Intl Share Discussion Threads

[topvest] 17/6/2016 19:28

Well a bit disappointing that its only 194p. Oh well, only bought at the end of March for 164p, so a tidy return for me on an IRR of basis in difficult markets. Valuation has always been negatively impacted by their high tax rate, so its not worth as much as some think and that's what initially put me off investing.

I do agree with posts that this is a low bid and doesn't even exceed the recent £2 high. With only 37% of the votes I wonder whether they are going to get this over the line or will have to stump up a slightly more acceptable bid. I would have thought 220p was about right. Thats what the initial price activity indicated when it surged to 210p or so. I suspect they would take the £28m to £30m if pushed!

Looks like the only major acceptances are Hanover and Impax; it's a bit surprising that Impax didn't hold out for a bit more than this. Is this a lowball sneaky offer or will it need a moderate increase to get it over the line? I don't think its a done deal even with director support, not that the directors own many shares at all so they will be looking at what their reward structure is like post deal.

[luckymouse] 17/6/2016 14:25

I'm surprised - worth more in my estimation - chart is almost the exact height of the IHS - but the fwds say more - looks like a dodgy banker advised deal to me.
They can say, look you've doubled your money from the lows, that's pretty generous isn't it. But fwds say its worth 30% more - sneeky.

[wjccghcc] 17/6/2016 13:35

Hmm. Was hoping for a bit more than that. Think I'll hold onto mine and see if anyone else is interested.

[gingerplant] 17/6/2016 09:25

194p. BFD!

[trigger16] 08/6/2016 21:52

Don't think the price activity is telling much - the volumes are very small. Probably just nervousness leading to more nervousness. Seems like a buying op to me

[topvest] 08/6/2016 15:46

Hmmm - looks like the deal may be off / at risk given the price activity. All looks a bit suspicious.

[dozey3] 28/5/2016 15:10

Well they made a couple of small takeovers a few months ago which have hardly had time to bed in. The Hydro-Logic consultancy side looks particularly interesting. Water management in all its aspects is not going out of fashion anytime soon, and however careful you are extrapolating the past into the future it involves many unknowns. My opinion is that Hydro is (and has been) conservatively managed, and perhaps not as opportunistic as it could have been. However that has resulted in a small but financially rock solid company with interesting IP and prospects of much increased growth in the next five years. Management should tell bidders they either cough up for the next few-years growth at 300p or sling their hook. But of course WTHDIK.

[ileeman] 23/5/2016 17:05

Chart looks very good to me, broken one resistance today and now not far from all time highs at 250p

Digging into their results...it looks like a very good business with huge growth.

What price for the company do you think is a sensible offer? over 250?

[topvest] 21/5/2016 16:30

Well I for one would be reasonably happy with a bid at the 220-230p level. I bought this as a QVM trade (from Stockopedia) - its a reasonably strong business but its weighting of profits in the US gives it a high effective tax rate. It looks reasonably likely that the bid will materialise from the RNS in my view.

[luckymouse] 21/5/2016 13:55

"In the meantime shareholders are urged to take no action" - quite provocative :)

Technically: I thought after the long term b/o it was going to around there anyway.
The pros will be eying those levels too as a guidance - Question is - will they gild the lily?
I guess the predator prob spotted the turnaround same as everyone else

free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[dozey3] 21/5/2016 13:21

I don't agree. The prospects now are better than they have ever been and the directors should reject this opportunistic approach. HYDRO is turning round very well on its own and its AIM status gives inheritance tax exemption which is attractive to some of us old buffers. Of course everything has its price, but 220 is far below mine even though my first dabble was at less than £1 in 2009, so it's not been a stellar investment so far.

[topvest] 20/5/2016 17:26

Yes, excellent news. Only bought this at the end of March, so could be in and out for a tidy profit. Will hang on for the bid though to see what happens.

[wjccghcc] 20/5/2016 15:43

I doubt management will agree to anything less than 220p given the potential here.

[gingerplant] 20/5/2016 15:32

c.215-230p (£31-£33m) if the bid materialises IMHO - a roughly calculated guess.

[leeshindig] 20/5/2016 14:59

Looks like someone had a sniff this morning, all those 750 trades one after the other until 10am.

[leeshindig] 20/5/2016 14:52

Wow, came back from walking the dog to this surprise. How much do you think then?

[firtashia] 20/5/2016 14:39

Interesting one as Hanover are turnaround specialists (think RGS), but looks like this business is doing well as it is.

[18bt] 20/5/2016 14:31

Has this been in the offing since March when share price spiked? Not clear on whether management are involved.

[the vampire] 20/5/2016 13:57

Takeover approach RNS.

[leeshindig] 20/5/2016 10:17

I'm surprised how "off the radar" this one is. Really solid financials so far, and very positive buzz coming from the company.

[the vampire] 20/5/2016 08:39

PE of around 10 on next year's estimate. Plemty of room to increase if met.

[18bt] 20/5/2016 07:39

Yes - this looks fairly valued on 2016 forecasts, but if the 2017 forecasts come into view then, they will look v cheap IMHO

[the vampire] 19/5/2016 19:22

Positive statement and outlook.