Goldplat Share Discussion Threads

[michaelfenton] 10/5/2024 16:16

Thanks Lowtrawler sound thinking? I hope it happens soon and no news may mean something is brewing? I would be happy with anything over 20p to be honest.

[lowtrawler] 10/5/2024 14:21

MF, we are only going to be sold at a price Martin finds acceptable. Hence, the current pricing is less important to a bid price than may otherwise be the case.

If DRD make a bid, they will do so with an accurate knowledge of the TSF value. IMV, excluding the TSF, GDP would have a bid price around 15p. If the NPV of the attributable TSF is 10p, there would be a bid ceiling of 25p. However, the TSF could easily be worth 20p by itself and so the ceiling might be 35p. It is unlikely DRD would bid up to the ceiling but I'm sure there would be a price both Martin and DRD could find acceptable.

[ertugrul] 10/5/2024 13:17

We will surely see 20p

There is also looks like a big buyer behind the scenes

[michaelfenton] 10/5/2024 12:44

GDP need to get the share price up or we will get sold for less than true value. No more banana slip ups please. Cnnot see MO accepting less than 20p?

[shill10] 10/5/2024 12:24

DRD Gold trades on a p/e of 10, so a bid would have to be accretive on that basis, by my calculations that is very doable.

[shill10] 10/5/2024 11:40

yes, all that talk about buying out the minority shareholding with borrowed cash, at a valuation way higher than the whole group - the ONLY reason they would have done this was if they knew the TSF was worth multiples of current market cap, they aren't that stupid as otherwise they would have just bought back Goldplat shares. Plus they did this transaction when Gold was c $1800 from memory...

[lowtrawler] 10/5/2024 11:39

shill10 - at that time, GDP had run some share buybacks which indicated they were starting to look at returning value to shareholders. Since then, they have had the trading suspension / accounts debacle; SA power outages; Ghana licensing problem; working capital increases; extra capex needs.....

It appears to me GDP will be able to generate around 2p of after tax annual attributable profit on a consistent basis. If they indicate at least 1p of this will be returned to shareholders, that alone would return us to 12.5p. The TSF is clearly going to be worth at least 10p per share and once a route to monetising the TSF is published, a large chunk should be reflected in the share price

A bid from DRD would obviously accelerate the share price appreciation but GDP have it within their own power to move the share price into the teens.

[dinky00] 10/5/2024 11:26

And they're about to finish repaying a big loan

[shill10] 10/5/2024 11:19

Goldplat shares were 12.5p in Nov 2022, when Gold was $1750. Gold is now $2360, and the shares are 8.5p....

[lowtrawler] 10/5/2024 10:00

It's good to dream and there are a lot of reasons why DRD would make an offer for GDP. All we can do is watch.

[shill10] 10/5/2024 09:28

DRD will do a deal for the TSF on the same terms they do for many others, that's a given, they have their margins, its a simple calculation, the results of which we are about to find out.Martin Ooi is not about to pull out of DRD deal either, it is mutually beneficial. Weather the financial gains with this deal to Goldplat are so large c w a market cap of £14 mill remains to be seen, there is a level where it makes sense for them to bid, also does that overlap with Martin Ooi's target ? I suspect yes, but let's see.

[ih_692232] 10/5/2024 08:15

DRD are a much bigger company than goldplat-acquiring yet another TSFwould be no problem for them -but would goldplat sell it in isolation? Would DRD want the reset of goldplat business? How does that fit with DRD-why bother ? I see nothing as certain as to DRD having intention to buy goldplat -it would be the answer to Martin and many shareholders but we all may have to rely on TSF dividends to get our return -may be a while before the picture clarifies
DRD hold all the keys to unlocking this business asset or cashing in on the whole business -you can expect them to drive a hard bargain -any other buyers???
And if DRD back out how will the TSF ever be unlocked ???
Lots of ifs
Alm

[michaelfenton] 10/5/2024 05:00

Kimboy2 - lets hope your possible is on the cards? I am getting frustrated by the lack of action. New numbers should be good given the POG?

[kimboy2] 09/5/2024 18:59

Well, as far as this conspiracy theorist is concerned, I wouldn't count 850k shares traded in a day as a flurry of activity.

There are a couple of things which I believe are indisputable fact.
1. Martin Ooi has 29% of the company, and effective control
2. The only way that he will be able to dispose of this shareholding in reasonable time, without collapsing the market, would be a bid.

Admittedly the second has a tad of opinion in it, but if this is MO's exit strategy the only issue is when.

My view is just before the contract is signed with DRD is optimal.

Possible if not probable.

[lowtrawler] 09/5/2024 09:10

The flurry of activity yesterday (relatively speaking for GDP) suggested people were expecting the results today. The conspiracy theorists might start adding 2+2 to make 3...delayed results announcement; no options announcement; no update on installation of generators....

[dinky00] 09/5/2024 08:44

Q3 results were released on May 5 in 2022 and May 6 in 2023. Bit annoying that the Q3 results still haven't been released

[lowtrawler] 08/5/2024 16:53

Yesterday's improvement has reversed. I assume there is a lot of positioning in preparation for the trading update announcement. I tend to believe the market knows what is in the announcement a few hours before it is published and so suspect we will get the update tomorrow and it will be pretty much in line with market expectations.

[ertugrul] 07/5/2024 20:58

Takeover at 20p would be good

[kimboy2] 07/5/2024 18:40

The pattern of options has tended to be set at the current price fora few years into the future. The problem is that GDP is always potentially pregnant with news that may make the option price a false price.

On the other hand perhaps the lawyers are away on holiday. Who knows?

[lowtrawler] 07/5/2024 14:59

MF, it would be rare for takeover speculation to actually materialise so soon after the discussion and so I wouldn't jump to conclusions on the Options not being published. If a bid is to happen, it will do so in it's own time.

The whole market seems to be buoyant at the moment and so my guess is we are just rising with it.

[michaelfenton] 07/5/2024 13:10

Yes no new options would mean something?

[kimboy2] 07/5/2024 12:46

Up 5% and no comment?

About a month ago they said that the options would be announced shortly for the 2 new directors, andthey haven't been.

Also the generators were meant to be commissioned at the end of April. Perhaps they have been and no further comment necessary.

Anyway I expect all will be revealed in the 3rd quarter statement which I was expecting today.

[lowtrawler] 03/5/2024 23:03

Thanks Kimboy, lots to think about.

I was thinking he would probably be very happy with a 3x return on his investment which would pitch a price somewhere between 15p and 20p. The obvious time to sell is before processing the TSF or he would have to remain invested for another c.5 years. DRD would be the obvious purchaser. At 20p, it would cost them less than £34m and profits from the TSF would likely cover most of that amount with £3m+ of ongoing attributable profit from the core business making it a bit of a no-brainer.

We know that commercial terms with DRD for the TSF are close to being finalised. Perhaps a bid is closer than we think.

[kimboy2] 03/5/2024 22:08

Well, the first thing is whether DRD would want GDP.

DRD are used to buying up heaps of tailings. In this case they would be buying a heap with a profitable niche company attached. What is more they could buy it with GDP's share of the profit of a theoretical contract,

Seems a no brainer to me.

If a bid is to be made then Martin Ooi is key. Unless they get him on board DRD cannot make the bid unconditionalas as they need 90% of the shares. They won't be able to delist or mop up the rest of the shares.

One or two reasons why I think a bid is better than a 50/50.

Firstly DRD is the one in control of the TSF. They can string it out,or duck out or whatever and GDP don't have many alternative routes to monetise the heap. At least not as profitably.

If DRD really wanted GDP they could play dirty and GDP shares may be marooned in much the same place as they are now, or less.

Martin Ooi will be aware of this,plus the virtual impossibility of getting rid of such a large holding on the open market. He certainly won't want his money marooned for potentially years in such a risky environment as South Africa.

The alternative for him is to develop the TSF and pay it out as a dividend. I believe the Aussie tax rate on the CGT of a sale would be half of the income tax on a dividend.

I have no doubt that GDP will, in theory, be worth more if they develop the TSF, but cash in hand comes at a premium.

I suspect MO is expecting 20p, but would take 17p. he is at an average cost of 5-6p (?).

One thing that is never considered is what are MO's personal circumstances. He has a medical practice in Australia. Is he indebted? Would the cash be better deployed in his medical practice?

The opportunity cost of the cash to MO may well be the deciding factor,if a bid emerges.

[lowtrawler] 03/5/2024 17:23

Kimboy, regarding your views on a bid:

"If there is to be a bid then it will come before a contractual agreement is announced, IMV. They could of course announce a bid without Martin Ooi's agreeing to sell, but I don't think they will. It would get very messy and the bid couldn't go unconditional."

I tend to agree with this. In fact, I think it highly unlikely any bid would be announced unless Martin was signed up to it.

With the contractual agreements due to be in place shortly, what do you think are the chances a bid will be announced in the next few weeks? What price do you think Martin would accept?

IMV, Martin will need a bid to divest his holding. If a bid is most likely to be made prior to announcement of the contractual agreement then there must be a reasonable chance a bid will be made in the next few weeks. I suspect Martin will want more than 15p but I'm unsure how low he would actually go. Would he sell under 20p?